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North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

Had Worse

By Had Worse
in Northwest Weather Discussion

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Author
Posted

Big hail stones bashing my garden and conservatory roof.

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted
2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Bank

No doubt a bit of wriggle room here and there not wanting to but a downer on things but its going to happen sooner or later but models now agreeing  on a breakdown Thursday so looking like a bitterly cold 5 days before the Atlantic gets back in but boy the breakdown looks like giving big falls as it hits the cold air.

C.S

Too right it's a bank mate. I nearly choked on my food when I saw it.

I expect to see upgraded warnings in the morning.

And yes, the breakdown if and when it comes in these situations is normally snowy. ❄️

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted
6 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Now that looks better although the stills don’t do Susan Powell any justice.

she looks like she’s just won a months enforced watching of Emmerdale

I didn't even realise.

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chicken soup Aficionado

chicken soup

Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn
Posted
9 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

 

Be interesting to see which of us is right with such wildly differing predictions 

It will.. I'm very sceptical of easterlies... I will be delighted to be wrong though. 

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Manchester_Sunset Enthusiast

Manchester_Sunset

Posted
  • Location: Stockport, South Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow.
  • Location: Stockport, South Manchester
Posted
49 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

So far we have 

Spah1 - Chorley- 1cm

Frosty the Snowman- Blackburn - 6inch

Andypvfc - Cheshire - 2cm

iand61 - Bacup - 10-30cm

Snow Free Zone - Preston - 0cm

JoE Snow - Sandbach - 5cm

Slidergate17 - Sale - 2cm

Dealine for entry 5pm Thursday! 

Whoever is closest I’ll PayPal £5 for a couple of beers! 

What about me!! Stockport

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted
29 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Is it worth reading to much into these charts and forecast or does Cumbria come under a nowcsst depending what makes it over the hills

I seen your post in the model thread and you said Carlisle had alot of snow from the BFTE so I don't see why it can't happen again in all honesty in a similar set up. 

As for Saturday into Sunday set up, I think for the most part it will be rain apart from higher ground, yesterday runs I was a bit more optimistic but the air is margianally less cold on todays runs so i suspect that BBC forecast will have more blue showing on future runs. 

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted
1 minute ago, fellmike said:

2cm Crewe

Crewe 2cm nows who's having a laugh

Seriously look at it no marginal rubbish here anything that falls will be powder snow no melting in between DP negative throughout I would up your estimation if I were you.

C.S

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Crewe 2cm nows who's having a laugh

Seriously look at it no marginal rubbish here anything that falls will be powder snow no melting in between DP negative throughout I would up your estimation if I were you.

C.S

Midday Sat & Sun

96-101UK.thumb.GIF.816090357e4f5e72df7a236d8860faa8.GIF120-101UK.thumb.GIF.d6727510edb6bced231e9e2f5e086364.GIF

EDIT; Sorry my bad, that's Sun & Mon. Sat's trend negative during the day though and I'm sure they'll trend quicker than showing currently.

Edited by Day 10
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swainclubber Enthusiast

swainclubber

Posted
  • Location: Littleborough,Greater manchester 164m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Summer storms, hot summer days and Snow :)
  • Location: Littleborough,Greater manchester 164m asl
Posted

7cm littleborough my prediction 

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Mark.C Aficionado

Mark.C

Posted
  • Location: blackpool lancs
  • Location: blackpool lancs
Posted
23 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

The Great BFTE Snow Depth Prediction
 

Frosty - Blackburn 6inch

Andypvfc - Cheshire 2cm

iand61 Bacup - 10-30cm

Snow Free Zone - 0cm

Joe Snow - Sandbach 4cm

Slidergate 17 Sale 2cm

Winter Hill - Horwich - 10cm

Chicken Soup - Blackburn - dusting 

William Glossop - 15cm

Osca31 - Brigrigg Cumbria- 1cm

Robbo - Hattersley - 8cm

Cheshire Snow - Northwich - 12cm

Chris78 - Preston - 1cm

Raul_sbd - Sale - 3cm

 

£5 to the Winner for a Fish supper ! 
 

Deadline 5pm Thursday! 

2cm here if anything happens, I’m a couple of miles inland so not quite as much influence from the sea 

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Author
Posted

7.5" for me.

Who is going to measure it though.?

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted
4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Midday Sat & Sun

96-101UK.thumb.GIF.816090357e4f5e72df7a236d8860faa8.GIF120-101UK.thumb.GIF.d6727510edb6bced231e9e2f5e086364.GIF

EDIT; Sorry my bad, that's Sun & Mon. Sat's trend negative during the day though and I'm sure they'll trend quicker than showing currently.

Sent you a PM mate

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

The Great BFTE Snow Depth Prediction
 

Frosty - Blackburn 6inch

Andypvfc - Cheshire 2cm

iand61 Bacup - 10-30cm

Snow Free Zone - 0cm

Joe Snow - Sandbach 4cm

Slidergate 17 Sale 2cm

Winter Hill - Horwich - 10cm

Chicken Soup - Blackburn - dusting 

William Glossop - 15cm

Osca31 - Brigrigg Cumbria- 1cm

Robbo - Hattersley - 8cm

Cheshire Snow - Northwich - 12cm

Chris78 - Preston - 1cm

Raul_sbd - Sale - 3cm

 

£5 to the Winner for a Fish supper ! 
 

Deadline 5pm Thursday! 

All depends on the position of the deepest convection zone - main streamer zone will follow this. Could make the difference between a scattered 2-5cm and a widespread 10-25cm.

I'd go for 16cm in Buxton atm

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Joe Bloggs Experienced

Joe Bloggs

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

All depends on the position of the deepest convection zone - main streamer zone will follow this. Could make the difference between a scattered 2-5cm and a widespread 10-25cm.

I'd go for 16cm in Buxton atm

I think for our region my favourite model tonight is the UKMO.

Strongest easterly flow and probably the best convective potential right out to T+144. 

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Frost HoIIow Accomplished

Frost HoIIow

Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Crewe 2cm nows who's having a laugh

Seriously look at it no marginal rubbish here anything that falls will be powder snow no melting in between DP negative throughout I would up your estimation if I were you.

C.S

Yeah I agree and I can't see there being only one snowfall in the upcoming weather. Looking like the best spell since Feb/March 2018. The only thing is the cold isn't looking as deep as we saw in that February, but still very good. It's just encouraging that we're still seeing these synoptics in a warming world. 

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
Just now, Joe Bloggs said:

I think for our region my favourite model tonight is the UKMO.

Strongest easterly flow and probably the best convective potential right out to T+144. 

UKMO is ok with the shower convection but worse than GFS for the trough - it is flatter with the isobar kink required for the deep shower convection, and lower heights @ 500mb. These lower heights at 500mb increase the average altitude of convection meaning there is less influence from the sub 5000ft Pennine precipitation shadow. This is the reason why some easterlies really deliver for the NW, and some don't.

 

Therefore, the modelling of this trough needs to be watched very closely over the coming days.

 

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted
9 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

7.5" for me.

Who is going to measure it though.?

ha ha You! 
 

Concrete surface allowing for drifts! Best guess. 

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hailseizertoo Apprentice

hailseizertoo

Posted
  • Location: Wavertree, Liverpool
  • Location: Wavertree, Liverpool
Posted (edited)

I'm just an eternal optimist Spah, and think Merseyside will be the recipient of all showers breezing across, smack in the middle, and down. Therefore, I'm going for an almost historic event for my area of Liverpool... 6cm..

Edited by hailseizertoo
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NickyB Aficionado

NickyB

Posted
  • Location: Wallasey Village, Wirral. 15.7m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Temps under 25 degrees and Disruptive Heavy Snowfall any other time
  • Location: Wallasey Village, Wirral. 15.7m ASL.
Posted

Loving the positivity in here

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted

The Great BFTE Snow Depth Prediction

 

Frosty the Snowman - Blackburn 15cm

Andypvfc - Cheshire 2cm

iand61 Bacup - 10-30cm

Snow Free Zone - 0cm

Joe Snow - Sandbach 4cm

Slidergate 17 Sale 2cm

Winter Hill - Horwich - 10cm

Chicken Soup - Blackburn - dusting 

William Glossop - 15cm

Osca31 - Brigrigg Cumbria- 1cm

Robbo - Hattersley - 8cm

Cheshire Snow - Northwich - 12cm

Chris78 - Preston - 1cm

Raul_sbd - Sale - 3cm

Thundersnow - Carlisle - 0.5 cm

Dy 10 - 5cm - Wirral 

SnowWatcher2 - High Crompton - 8cm

Face Like Thunder - Crewe - 0cm

Fellmike - Crewe - 2cm

ManchesterSunset - Stockport - ???

Swainclubber - Littleborough - 7cm

Mark Blackpool 2cm

Had Worse - Glossop - 19.05cm

Kasim - Buxton - 16cm

Hailseizertoo - Wavertree - 6cm

 

Deadline 5pm Thursday 

 

£5 for the Winner for a fish Supper!

 

Final measurements on concrete

5pm Wednesday, allow for drifting - best guess. 

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