North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[Joe Snow]

Just now, Day 10 said:

What was the date for the BFTE 2018?

Around 26th Feb- 2nd March 2018. Mid March 2018 also saw some snow up here too I think but not sure as was living down in London at the time. London/ SE got pummelled especially night of the 27th into the 28th of Feb. I had around 15cm only 6 miles outside of Central London. NW England also saw heavy snow on the 27th/28th but to low levels further west was only a few cm covering of powder snow. West Lancs/ Fylde coast the only area that properly missed out I think. 

[Slidergate '17]

That latest BBC long range seems to be over doing it a tad??

[Frosty the Snowman]

2 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

yes . Blackburn didnt have as much where I live down the road in Darwen , the height here makes a big difference and we were picking showers up that Blackburn wasnt ... Was amazing taking the train from Blackburn to Darwen and see the Snow amounts increase ... 

Hopefully this time a fair bit more can make it through the dead zone between the two towns 

 

As I said I don't remember it being a horrendous let down here, but don't remember being anything out of the ordinary depth wise apart from it being powder snow rather than wet which is unusual in the time I've lived here - probably one or two times I've had that. 

 

Given how decent the rest of this winter's been (that said my relative height has helped on some marginals), it's probably best to go into an easterly like this with an anything's a bonus attitude.

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:

Around 26th Feb- 2nd March 2018. Mid March 2018 also saw some snow up here too I think but not sure as was living down in London at the time. London/ SE got pummelled especially night of the 27th into the 28th of Feb. I had around 15cm only 6 miles outside of Central London. NW England also saw heavy snow on the 27th/28th but to low levels further west was only a few cm covering of powder snow. West Lancs/ Fylde coast the only area that properly missed out I think. 

I remember 4 inches of snow in the March from the frontal but memory is sketchy before that, maybe because I remembered the 4 inches I forgot the rest! lol

[Kasim Awan]

The shower & streamer activity will follow the strong winds on the central / northern size of core of the lower uppers in the trough.

The Arpege for example builds this into East Mids (Humber / Wash streamer), before a progression into Yorkshire / Pennines. Note the duration of this pattern - several days on some models so potential for rather sizeable accumulations.

[Frosty the Snowman]

Anyway, cross polar flow on the UKMO at Day 5 would shut a lot of these conversations.

 

[Thunder Snow]

I'm hoping for a repeat of 2018, its the most snow in carlisle I have ever seen 

[BlackburnChris]

1 minute ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

Hopefully this time a fair bit more can make it through the dead zone between the two towns 

 

As I said I don't remember it being a horrendous let down here, but don't remember being anything out of the ordinary depth wise apart from it being powder snow rather than wet which is unusual in the time I've lived here - probably one or two times I've had that. 

 

Given how decent the rest of this winter's been (that said my relative height has helped on some marginals), it's probably best to go into an easterly like this with an anything's a bonus attitude.

The Last time , I remember all the Spring flowers got ruined outside Blackburn Cathedral (back in the day when I could go postal order every night lol . )

[Joe Snow]

4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I remember 4 inches of snow in the March from the frontal but memory is sketchy before that, maybe because I remembered the 4 inches I forgot the rest! lol

Yeah ironically some areas did better in that spell as it was a frontal event than the BFTE itself. I remember a mate who lives in Chester sending me pics of a decent covering of snow there during the Beast though so Wirral should fingers crossed get it’s first decent snow of the Winter if those bands of snow/ showers push this far west ️? 

[Spah1]

Well let’s have a bit of fun. By 5pm on Wednesday 10th Feb predict your snow depth  I’m going for a dusting barely measurable - say 1cm. Let’s go for concrete in back or front garden. 
 

 

[Frost HoIIow]

12 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:

Around 26th Feb- 2nd March 2018. Mid March 2018 also saw some snow up here too I think but not sure as was living down in London at the time. London/ SE got pummelled especially night of the 27th into the 28th of Feb. I had around 15cm only 6 miles outside of Central London. NW England also saw heavy snow on the 27th/28th but to low levels further west was only a few cm covering of powder snow. West Lancs/ Fylde coast the only area that properly missed out I think. 

The "mini" beast in mid March was decent. Actually just as good as late February in terms of snow amounts round here. Saw just as much drifting snow and goes to show even well into March can deliver the goods. The charts at the time were nice.

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Joe Snow said:

Yeah ironically some areas did better in that spell as it was a frontal event than the BFTE itself. I remember a mate who lives in Chester sending me pics of a decent covering of snow there during the Beast though so Wirral should fingers crossed get it’s first decent snow of the Winter if those bands of snow/ showers push this far west ️? 

Even IF nothing makes it here then the breakdown from these situations can sometimes be a snowy one. Frigid air in place, fronts moving slowly northeast, a lot slower than the other day. Looking forward to it either way really.

You should do ok being a little further south.

[Frosty the Snowman]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Well let’s have a bit of fun. By 5pm on Wednesday 10th Feb predict your snow depth  I’m going for a dusting barely measurable - say 1cm. Let’s go for concrete in back or front garden. 
 

 

I'm cautiously optimistic about this so will go for a matching of the deepest snow I've seen here - 6inches

[Manchester_Sunset]

Just watched the weather forecast then lots and lots of snow, especially Saturday into Sunday 

[WillinGlossop]

Peak District - Mountain weather forecast

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The Peak District is home to a wide variety of magnificent hills, moors, outcrops and gritstone edges.

Good update on Peak District forecast

[SnowWatcher2]

The 10 day outlook has been amazing today for here with every update... lets see if it holds up over next few days.

[Snow free zone]

31 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

Every time in this setup . The Showers get all the way over to the West  , and is this flow is even stronger than usual and even Colder would be expecting some Beefy Showers over Lancs / Manchester from Saturday night onwards ... The models have always been rubbish of predicting the extent of showers , and everything that falls will settle and stay so be a case of Snow building up over the week .  

Chris. Not the case.  Very rarely if ever does ppn from the east reach here let alone leave a covering. Blackburn maybe as you are 10 miles further east but not here. 

[Andypvfc]

As I'm on the South Cheshire / North Staffs border, can I join and predict 2cm here

[iand61]

6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Well let’s have a bit of fun. By 5pm on Wednesday 10th Feb predict your snow depth  I’m going for a dusting barely measurable - say 1cm. Let’s go for concrete in back or front garden. 
 

 

Head says regulation 10cm but heart is expecting at least 30cm although it’s going to be that powdery stuff so will have blown into drifts anyway.

[Snow free zone]

10 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Well let’s have a bit of fun. By 5pm on Wednesday 10th Feb predict your snow depth  I’m going for a dusting barely measurable - say 1cm. Let’s go for concrete in back or front garden. 
 

 

Nothing

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Head says regulation 10cm but heart is expecting at least 30cm although it’s going to be that powdery stuff so will have blown into drifts anyway.

Say the same for here but if the winds are strong I doubt I’ll get a measurement 

[Joe Snow]

2 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

As I'm on the South Cheshire / North Staffs border, can I join and predict 2cm here

I would take a broad guess at a 1-5cm covering for us South Cheshire/ North Staffs lot. Easterlies can deliver we just need the snow to push this far west. 

[dodge]

It's not been too bad a winter so far, especially in terms of low temps and frosts/ice if not huge depths of snow...but it's good to be under starters orders for our coldest spell of weather coming up over the weekend.  What does fall should stick and not turn into a slushy mess within hours.  Hope the Pennines will be in the mood to let the showers sail over without too much hinderance.

[alr1970]

I am not hoping for a repeat of 2018, we only got a dusting here. It looks jolly freezing in this photo though.

In fact, I remember cycling up a street with drifting snow blowing past me, like in an Antarctic documentary.

Edited February 3, 2021 by alr1970

[cheshire snow]

Just checking the Net weather forecast for Saturday and sunday I have a 90 percent of PPN but 0 per cent chance of snow or rain

C.S