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North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

8132B525-3937-4FAD-A383-85F5BC47C2D3.thumb.png.4b91f4ac0cd1fd78fee2a7d6b4139740.png

That sums up perfectly why I can’t look forward to it. 
Hope I’m wrong. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hattersley, greater manchester 160m asl.
  • Location: Hattersley, greater manchester 160m asl.
Just now, Manchester_Sunset said:

Oh I'd be happy to see that kinda snow!

I'm not far from the Morrison's in Denton

*Tries not to get too excited**

 

Yes you aren't far at all! Fingers crossed.

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
3 minutes ago, Manchester_Sunset said:

Oh I'd be happy to see that kinda snow!

I'm not far from the Morrison's in Denton

*Tries not to get too excited**

 

Somewhere near the Fletchers Arms?

Edited by Had Worse
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

Showers basically stop at Darwen. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

The Easterlies I can remember pulled from the archives which all produced snow across to the west of our region.

Synoptically different, but all had the right ingredients to produce fairly widespread snow similar to what could happen in the coming week or even weeks (maybe).

January 1987

947717878_13thJan87P.thumb.png.7bf1fecbb3cce8cbae3a483251eae4b7.png437439512_13thJan87.thumb.png.bdd0a31039d1e7416248d0e545517d87.png

767215056_14thJan87P.thumb.png.655d17b76997038ca73caccd7f88c5e1.png1295185176_14thJan87.thumb.png.aa14bb2e714380ae565c4a8850b4735e.png

February 1991

674258668_Feb91P.thumb.png.fb4e7ce2e3515d7d3695f776fdc1c97c.png1431814789_Feb91.thumb.png.5e38a2a2ef1d6645214a4cce71a368a9.png

December 1996

215385758_Dec96P.thumb.png.f216dd9a10cb66f6caa35b0c18060c09.png1684793420_Dec96.thumb.png.f5ed7f10a9d1a2ca5ca806cab7e8a7d5.png

January 1996

497328323_Jan96P.thumb.png.d078539c1eb66e7e1f655ed394c70994.png860749279_Jan96.thumb.png.0c3b49f0484a9d49753b530eaad486de.png

All some of us are saying is, at this stage it does not look like your typical rubbish dry Easterly this side of the Pennines.

Yes the East will get clobbered but eventually we have at least half a chance of seeing some POWDER snow at some point.

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Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston
8 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

8132B525-3937-4FAD-A383-85F5BC47C2D3.thumb.png.4b91f4ac0cd1fd78fee2a7d6b4139740.png

That sums up perfectly why I can’t look forward to it. 
Hope I’m wrong. 

Thats right, I keep seeing how easterlies can deliver snow to our region, very true, but not for Preston!   Having said that i actually like a really cold spell, if we get ice days and some super cold nights ill e pretty happy.     (while trying to ignore the snow everyone else is getting!)

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Just now, Manchester_Sunset said:

"quite a few areas"

Screenshot_20210203-132224.png

I listen to Simon on both Radio 5 live and more locally on BBC Radio Manchester.

He gets asked questions but manages to play anything down that's not been vetted for official broadcast from the weather organisations.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
8 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

The Easterlies I can remember pulled from the archives which all produced snow across to the west of our region.

Synoptically different, but all had the right ingredients to produce fairly widespread snow similar to what could happen in the coming week or even weeks (maybe).

January 1987

947717878_13thJan87P.thumb.png.7bf1fecbb3cce8cbae3a483251eae4b7.png437439512_13thJan87.thumb.png.bdd0a31039d1e7416248d0e545517d87.png

767215056_14thJan87P.thumb.png.655d17b76997038ca73caccd7f88c5e1.png1295185176_14thJan87.thumb.png.aa14bb2e714380ae565c4a8850b4735e.png

February 1991

674258668_Feb91P.thumb.png.fb4e7ce2e3515d7d3695f776fdc1c97c.png1431814789_Feb91.thumb.png.5e38a2a2ef1d6645214a4cce71a368a9.png

December 1996

215385758_Dec96P.thumb.png.f216dd9a10cb66f6caa35b0c18060c09.png1684793420_Dec96.thumb.png.f5ed7f10a9d1a2ca5ca806cab7e8a7d5.png

January 1996

497328323_Jan96P.thumb.png.d078539c1eb66e7e1f655ed394c70994.png860749279_Jan96.thumb.png.0c3b49f0484a9d49753b530eaad486de.png

All some of us are saying is, at this stage it does not look like your typical rubbish dry Easterly this side of the Pennines.

Yes the East will get clobbered but eventually we have at least half a chance of seeing some POWDER snow at some point.

Thanks for those. I was going to ask members how good Feb 1991 was in Western parts of our region. Looks like it was decent on that chart. I lived in the Midlands at the time and we ended up with around a foot and a half of snow from memory.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
32 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Whether or not it snows in NW England on an easterly blast is one of those conversations that crops up time and time again. The models nearly always suggest it doesn’t snow but in reality it nearly always does, especially in the east of the region. 
 

As a general rule, on a convective easterly with uppers below -10C and a strong wind, eastern parts of the region will get snow. East Lancs, East Cheshire, East Cumbria etc. Greater Manchester you can usually split the city down the middle, east of Princess Parkway will get snow, especially up towards Stockport, Tameside and Oldham. But even the city centre can get light coverings as can Trafford and Salford if the showers are potent enough. It really depends on the specific nature of the convective window. 
 

West Cheshire, Merseyside and West Lancs & West Cumbria can still get showers but here you’re more likely to need to rely on troughs and frontal features. 

For fronts - it’s a completely different story ( à la 2013). As fronts move in from the west and bump into cold air, it’s the west of the region’s turn to get the snow, as Greater Manchester and NE Cheshire then get the snow shadow treatment and the fronts fizzle as they move NW IF the wind is moderate to strong (if the wind is very light and heights are low enough the snow shadow becomes less important). 
 

In summary we are not in the highest risk area but it is very inaccurate to suggest that NW England stays dry in an easterly flow, this is especially the case if the wind is strong and heights are lower (if you look at the charts on wetterzentrale and see the light blues moving in these are representative of upper lows and are likely to indicate more organised areas of snow).

Believe the snow accumulation charts at your peril. 

Very good post. I mentioned 26 Jan 96, on that occasion a trough feature moved right across the area, and we received about 6 inches or more. For western parts of the region trough and frontal features are more needed than convective showers. Eastern parts tend to do well from convection.

East Cumbria does well from convective set ups, we are on the boundary here, sometimes see showers making it this far west. The winds are ENE initially and many parts of E Cumbria are not far from the Durham coast as the crow flies.. much closer to the east coast than places further south in the region.

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
2 minutes ago, Slidergate '17 said:

Ideally one of these appears on the fax charts stretching from just north of Hull across to Liverpool.. things may get a bit more interesting for all if it does.

Screenshot_20210203-133229_Drive.jpg

image.thumb.png.c58658b511883123a62d3aa7f3c5bda3.pngLike this for Sunday?

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
7 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Thanks for those. I was going to ask members how good Feb 1991 was in Western parts of our region. Looks like it was decent on that chart. I lived in the Midlands at the time and we ended up with around a foot and a half of snow from memory.

Vague memories of then. Distinctly remember snow on the 8th Feb, not sure how much it put down, perhaps no more than 2 or 3 inches here. I think that was all we had from that easterly spell. It hung around for over a week, remember the half term holidays had snow on the ground dish barely melted due to maxima often at or just above freezing and some cold nights despite alot of sunshine. 

My ideal scenario is a 26 Jan 96 one with a trough feature producing a band of heavy snow giving at least 6 inches, timing wise Sunday daytime. The snow then sticking through next week with further top ups. Not much to ask is it!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Must say, model watching and prospect of cold and chance of snow winning out against rain wind and mild since Christmas has kept me sane in these restricted times. 

I know I'd be feeling more fed up had we been enduring the synoptics of last winter as a repeat this year, and I'm being very serious. This time last year we were in the depths of a protracted very wet period that went on and on, with no cold, no snow.. 

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Vague memories of then. Distinctly remember snow on the 8th Feb, not sure how much it put down, perhaps no more than 2 or 3 inches here. I think that was all we had from that easterly spell. It hung around for over a week, remember the half term holidays had snow on the ground dish barely melted due to maxima often at or just above freezing and some cold nights despite alot of sunshine. 

My ideal scenario is a 26 Jan 96 one with a trough feature producing a band of heavy snow giving at least 6 inches, timing wise Sunday daytime. The snow then sticking through next week with further top ups. Not much to ask is it!

In Feb 1991, I was at my girlfriends (since married and divorced) house in Carbrook, Stalybridge. My car, a red Vauxhall Nova was part buried upto the bonnet as was the whole of the square.

The drifts up the house were about 5ft and waling out of the house, it came up to my thighs.

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Posted
  • Location: Stockport, South Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow.
  • Location: Stockport, South Manchester
2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

In Feb 1991, I was at my girlfriends (since married and divorced) house in Carbrook, Stalybridge. My car, a red Vauxhall Nova was part buried upto the bonnet as was the whole of the square.

The drifts up the house were about 5ft and waling out of the house, it came up to my thighs.

Oooooh now I'd have that so I couldn't get into work

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Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Vague memories of then. Distinctly remember snow on the 8th Feb, not sure how much it put down, perhaps no more than 2 or 3 inches here. I think that was all we had from that easterly spell. It hung around for over a week, remember the half term holidays had snow on the ground dish barely melted due to maxima often at or just above freezing and some cold nights despite alot of sunshine. 

My ideal scenario is a 26 Jan 96 one with a trough feature producing a band of heavy snow giving at least 6 inches, timing wise Sunday daytime. The snow then sticking through next week with further top ups. Not much to ask is it!

Winter 1990/91 is easily the best I have experienced in my lifetime for snow. We had two monumental falls that winter, as we also had a similarly deep fall in December 1990 as well. 2010 was amazing, but not quite on the same scale as 90/91.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

06z Midday Sunday

An Ice day.

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.2e19455a0ff8a85b4a4b13c339576336.png

Classic Easterly - the type I remember where Rime Ice was horizontal on the Trig Point on Helvellyn.

h500slp.thumb.png.1586ecd1e911519fb72f2170d10b741f.png

Can't see it for us somehow.

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.803526fd5bf5c8e673b66d5c9b9b7e6f.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 minute ago, Dexter said:

Winter 1990/91 is easily the best I have experienced in my lifetime for snow. We had two monumental falls that winter, as we also had a similarly deep fall in December 1990 as well. 2010 was amazing, but not quite on the same scale as 90/91.

Yes southern parts of the region did well winter 90/91. Cumbria didn't see as much snow from either event. For me Winter 09-10 best winter cold wise since 78-79 and on a par with 95-96, delivered more snow events than 95-96 but not the same amounts, well 95-96 is skewed massively by the 5-6 Feb event.

Winter 90-91 was made by first half Feb, rest of it wasnt anything special.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snowy. Summer: Warm/gentle breeze. Anytime: thunderstorms/gales.
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
43 minutes ago, chris78 said:

Thats right, I keep seeing how easterlies can deliver snow to our region, very true, but not for Preston!   Having said that i actually like a really cold spell, if we get ice days and some super cold nights ill e pretty happy.     (while trying to ignore the snow everyone else is getting!)

Same here Chris, though I see a snowless chill as wasted cold. Simply too far west.

IMG_20210203_135532.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston
2 minutes ago, snowdrifter said:

Same here Chris, though I see a snowless chill as wasted cold. Simply too far west.

IMG_20210203_135532.jpg

I know what you mean, but two of my favourite cold memories are snowless ones, the hoar frost of Nov 2009, what a stunning morning, prettier than any snow scene.    Second the ice bergs in the Ribble Dec 2010, something i never thought id see.  

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
49 minutes ago, Manchester_Sunset said:

Oh I'd be happy to see that kinda snow!

I'm not far from the Morrison's in Denton

*Tries not to get too excited**

 

The missus sister lives near there and it's usually far enough east to get in on the action. Better than a few miles to the west.

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