North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[Day 10]

I'd be very surprised if snow doesn't make it here by the end of next week.

It does not look like a typical dry Easterly but the more rare version of unstable and very cold (87, 91 & 96).

Troughs & disturbances are bound to form and not get picked up until late notice.

I'd be ecstatic with a couple of cm's of powder snow blowing about!

[The Northern Ramper]

1 hour ago, Had Worse said:

If narnia hits, our regional thread will be ticking over pages as fast as the cost of diesel at the fuel pump.

Anyway, I've given the heads up to a few key workers that live close to me about the need to have a shovel , blankets etc in their cars.

Theres only one 'A' road into and out of Glossop / Hollingworth in the Manchester direction and when this gets bad, its a snarl up and nothing moves.

The traffic around Glossop is crap at the best of times.

[captaincroc]

7 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I'd be very surprised if snow doesn't make it here by the end of next week.

It does not look like a typical dry Easterly but the more rare version of unstable and very cold (87, 91 & 96).

Troughs & disturbances are bound to form and not get picked up until late notice.

I'd be ecstatic with a couple of cm's of powder snow blowing about!

This is what I keep saying. I'm not saying we will get 10ft drifts but in this set up with such low thicknesses and instability, some features will surely pop up nearer the time. 

 

Plus like you, I can't wait to see a few cm of Powder snow blow around.  Cannot complain about the snow I have had but would love to see the dry continental snow being whisked about in the wind

Edited February 3, 2021 by captaincroc

[Had Worse]

14 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

What I am noticing that interesting, if you have a look at the Met Office automated forecasts, they are giving a few days of heavy snow in Snowdonia. Showers reaching that area will surely reach this area too, they have to pass over! Unless they die almost completely as they hit and then topographic lift takes place as they hit the hills.

Depends on wind direction.

If its from the W, NW, N or NE then the Irish sea will develop convection that will hit the Welsh Mountains.

[Backtrack]

1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

Depends on wind direction.

If its from the W, NW, N or NE then the Irish sea will develop convection that will hit the Welsh Mountains.

Can't see any point in the next few days where it has enough N element to the flow to generate the Irish Sea convection, at most its ENE

[Frosty the Snowman]

Seems like one of these where we just have to accept get the cold in first.

 

That said, it looks like the Atlantic storm that just hit the US is increasingly expect to make it across in tack, imagine that bumping into the cold air or wrapping the two together, would give us some insane snowfall at the middle to end of February. . 

[Manchester_Sunset]

21 minutes ago, Ramp said:

The traffic around Glossop is crap at the best of times.

Especially through mottram 

[damianslaw]

Still cold here, current temp 3.3 degrees. Milder air struggling to make it here. Fells receiving further snow, but just rain today here.

[damianslaw]

Still cold here, current temp 3.3 degrees. Milder air struggling to make it here. Fells receiving further snow, but just rain today here.

[snowdrifter]

34 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Depends on wind direction.

If its from the W, NW, N or NE then the Irish sea will develop convection that will hit the Welsh Mountains.

Just once perhaps being on the coast might be helpful, a la '96...

[Had Worse]

Your closer to the boundary thats a bit further North.

I bet its that damp cold that gets in your bones type weather if you go out unprepared.

[Manchester_Sunset]

6c currently in Stockport

[Manchester_Sunset]

Monday 8 February – Sunday 14 February

Colder, potentially snowy start to the week

In mid-February, high pressure is expected to remain over Scandinavia throughout the week, keeping things rather cold. This setup is similar to the classic "Beast from the East" from 2018, and there is potential for some heavy snow showers for eastern areas for the first half of the week. This is very sensitive to the strength of the high to the northeast, so it is still a bit too early to accurately predict snow amounts, but the greatest chances are in the eastern and central parts of Britain. We have high confidence that the high pressure system will develop, and it will turn colder than normal. The coldest days will tend to be around midweek as the air from Russia finally arrives in force.

Later in the week, the high in Scandinavia is expected to shift slightly further south and southeast, nearer to Belarus or western Russia. This shift should kill off any easterly winds through the North Sea, shifting them more southeast. This is still a cold flow for us in this setup, but much less cold than the first half of the week is expected to be. This weather pattern is also drier for the UK, so some crisp afternoon sunshine is expected. Without a cold flow over the relative warm North Sea, the risk of lowland snow showers is also lower.

The main risk to the mid-February forecast is for the easterly winds to linger for longer into the second half of the week if the high pressure system stubbornly remains over Scandinavia. This would make for a very cold, windy week across the country, but more so for eastern areas where it will feel very raw outside.

[Geordiesnow]

3 hours ago, Manchester_Sunset said:

Saturday into Sunday would be one to keep an eye on.

Here's what Matt has to say 

I'll class this easterly as a beast, -12 uppers, lots of snow in the east and a big windchill.

With the centre of the low close by, I expect it will be a wave type weather front smashing into eastern areas, just like our version of a waving front from a SW'ly but they will get lots of snow before it possibly dying out. Cant see much in the west though, surely the dry air once it hits the hills will dry it out leaving us with grey skies and a raw wind. 

[Manchester_Sunset]

12 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I'll class this easterly as a beast, -12 uppers, lots of snow in the east and a big windchill.

With the centre of the low close by, I expect it will be a wave type weather front smashing into eastern areas, just like our version of a waving front from a SW'ly but they will get lots of snow before it possibly dying out. Cant see much in the west though, surely the dry air once it hits the hills will dry it out leaving us with grey skies and a raw wind. 

I'd imagine with the showers coming in from the east, will be some accumulations in places. The hills may fizzle them out for here..

[PennineMark]

This is a photo of one of the lanes less than a mile away from here from back in the 2018 beast. The setup for next week as it stands is similar if not better than than 2018. The drifting back then in those prone areas on the western edges of large fields etc was incredible. Fingers crossed . 

[Winter Hill]

Just now, Manchester_Sunset said:

I'd imagine with the showers coming in from the east, will be some accumulations in places. The hills may fizzle them out for here..

Not necessarily.. 

Many made it over the Pennines in 2018.  Eastern areas of our region will see snow showers. 

Ive had many a good snowfall from an Easterly. 
One thing I have noticed is that they tend to fizzle out as they have passed my part of the Region. 

[Manchester_Sunset]

4 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Not necessarily.. 

Many made it over the Pennines in 2018.  Eastern areas of our region will see snow showers. 

Ive had many a good snowfall from an Easterly. 
One thing I have noticed is that they tend to fizzle out as they have passed my part of the Region. 

Your further west than myself, so it gives a good chance also as I'm not far from the M67

[robbo88]

11 minutes ago, Manchester_Sunset said:

Your further west than myself, so it gives a good chance also as I'm not far from the M67

I'm not from the area originally, but I live in Tameside right next to the M67 and in the BFTE we got a lot of snow. 

[Geordiesnow]

24 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Not necessarily.. 

Many made it over the Pennines in 2018.  Eastern areas of our region will see snow showers. 

Ive had many a good snowfall from an Easterly. 
One thing I have noticed is that they tend to fizzle out as they have passed my part of the Region. 

Yeah with the pennines not as high or as long lasting showers should make it over in southern parts of the region before dying away. 

For those on the west coast, there might be some flurries from decaying PPN but that probably be it, relying on troughs or something unexpected to occur but whilst we are in the cold air, there is always an chance.

[Joe Bloggs]

Whether or not it snows in NW England on an easterly blast is one of those conversations that crops up time and time again. The models nearly always suggest it doesn’t snow but in reality it nearly always does, especially in the east of the region. 
 

As a general rule, on a convective easterly with uppers below -10C and a strong wind, eastern parts of the region will get snow. East Lancs, East Cheshire, East Cumbria etc. Greater Manchester you can usually split the city down the middle, east of Princess Parkway will get snow, especially up towards Stockport, Tameside and Oldham. But even the city centre can get light coverings as can Trafford and Salford if the showers are potent enough. It really depends on the specific nature of the convective window. 
 

West Cheshire, Merseyside and West Lancs & West Cumbria can still get showers but here you’re more likely to need to rely on troughs and frontal features. 

For fronts - it’s a completely different story ( à la 2013). As fronts move in from the west and bump into cold air, it’s the west of the region’s turn to get the snow, as Greater Manchester and NE Cheshire then get the snow shadow treatment and the fronts fizzle as they move NW IF the wind is moderate to strong (if the wind is very light and heights are low enough the snow shadow becomes less important). 
 

In summary we are not in the highest risk area but it is very inaccurate to suggest that NW England stays dry in an easterly flow, this is especially the case if the wind is strong and heights are lower (if you look at the charts on wetterzentrale and see the light blues moving in these are representative of upper lows and are likely to indicate more organised areas of snow).

Believe the snow accumulation charts at your peril. 

[Had Worse]

Some reminders.

[Manchester_Sunset]

12 minutes ago, robbo88 said:

I'm not from the area originally, but I live in Tameside right next to the M67 and in the BFTE we got a lot of snow. 

Ah! I live on border of tameside and Stockport 

[robbo88]

Some memories from Feb 2018 here in Hyde.

Most snow I've ever seen, and I remember I hardly slept for days and was so overexcited and obsessive over the weather I had a like mini breakdown like an overtired toddler. Embarrassing really, but it's crazy how the weather brings out the inner kid 

[Manchester_Sunset]

Just now, robbo88 said:

Some memories from Feb 2018 here in Hyde.

Most snow I've ever seen, and I remember I hardly slept for days and was so overexcited and obsessive over the weather I had a like mini breakdown like an overtired toddler. Embarrassing really, but it's crazy how the weather brings out the inner kid 

Oh I'd be happy to see that kinda snow!

I'm not far from the Morrison's in Denton

*Tries not to get too excited**