Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Tim Bland]

Swore so loud I woke Mrs B when I viewed the ECM run Could it actually happen Look at these snow depths by the end of the week!! 

[kold weather]

ECM control is more reasonable with regards to the snowfall:

Still decent coverage of 10cms so nothing to sniff about, its a great run on its own right!

Its just the 00z ECM op has spoiled us rotten!

EDIT - another good event for further north than the op run, Midlands for Saturday night on the control:

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Blessed Weather]

Several posts have been moved to the Regional threads. May I remind folk of the on/off topic guidance at the start of the thread. Thank you.

**Model thread rules of engagement**

• If your post is discussing the model output, then it's fine in this thread
• If your post is mostly not about the models, briefly mentioning a model by name or putting a chart in there does not make it model discussion - the best place for this sort of thing is the winter chat thread.
• Please use the Met Office thread to discuss their outlooks.
• A local slant is ok as many people prefer to look at the models with a view to their local conditions
• Local 'will it snow type' posts, or local forecast chat are not suited to the model thread though, the best place for these sorts of posts is the regional area

[Tim Bland]

30 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Day 9-10 mean EPS trending colder.  Less ridging to the south with the jet cutting through the UK.

Looks like it’s on a knife edge for us then? If it cuts through the channel we will all be fine..Through Scotland and it’s game over..lots to play for long term but also lots of snow to play in short term

[kold weather]

Well unsurprisingly the ECM op is quite some way the snowiest run out of its entire ensembles.

So the 12z ECM won't be as snowy.

Still plenty of snowy runs however in there, with more realistic looking totals.

[Hotspur62]

22 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

I think we'll see a small shift on the ecm ensembles in a few minutes, the individual ensembles are out to next Thursday and the line of approach from the Atlantic looks further south, in general - better for all snow event rather than snow to rain.

if the ECM has picked up a trend,then historically these events tend to shift southwards by 50-100 miles which as you say would keep it all a Midlands and South event and all snow.The downside is that some of the North would lose out on snow.The upside is everyone would stay very cold and hopefully more chances would be forthcoming.That is all a long way off and let’s ensure from Saturday onwards as much as the UK can see snow falling
 

stay safe

[ICE COLD]

Well I’m lost for words . Upgrades in the short term upgrades in the long term . What Mega output this morning. 
 

Them snow depth chats are incredible. 

[Matt Jones]

While everyone gets excited about snow charts for 1 week away! The ukmo this morning not quite as good as last evenings, yesterday we had a better alignment to get a more north of east flow later in the run. Today it’s earlier output shows Sunday with a easterly but with a more southerly influence hence the colder uppers are slower to come in, ecm this morning is the same in holding the coldest uppers off until Monday when we pick up a straight easterly. No point getting excited at this point with any battleground/breakdown event as its too far out.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well unsurprisingly the ECM op is quite some way the snowiest run out of its entire ensembles.

So the 12z ECM won't be as snowy.

Still plenty of snowy runs however in there, with more realistic looking totals.

Expected that, but key thing is, can the Atlantic go underneath, unlike on GFS

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Well I’m lost for words . Upgrades in the short term upgrades in the long term . What Mega output this morning. 
 

Them snow depth chats are incredible. 

Well if that doesn't create streamers galore then I don't know what will. Could be some remarkable snow depths by midweek

[nick sussex]

Have looked through each ensemble for this mornings ECM run and they’re all over the place with how any potential breakdown occurs .

Still a lot of uncertainty on that front . 

The ECM mean and spreads have been updated . The big takeaway there , the mean taking the energy more se by day 8 and 9 compared to last night.

Edited February 4, 2021 by nick sussex

[North East Blizzard]

56 minutes ago, radiohead said:

0Z ECM is the snowiest ECM run I have ever seen. Extraordinary totals being shown, which would certainly be even higher locally than shown here. And virutally everyone gets some snow. It really doesn't get much better than this.

That pink blob up north is right over my house, generally in an easterly flow, we do fantastic, from the west, not so much. 

Generally the main models struggle with picking up showers coming in off the North sea, will be looking at the high res with interest as they come in to view. 

[Frosty.]

Me thinks it could be busy in here today looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean?...cold being prolonged..love it!  

[Jason M]

If the charts are even close to being right this morning I wouldn’t care less if the second half of feb was 20c. unlike the nonsense of a few weeks ago these are worthy of a ramp.

[Anthony Burden]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Have looked through each ensemble for this mornings ECM run and they’re all over the place with how any potential breakdown occurs .

Still a lot of uncertainty on that front .

Good morning Nick,

Met office 30 day /Glosea 5 bang on never keen on Atlantic lows pushing far into U.K. due to pressure rise

to the north.very cold air to stay with us for some time.

[Jontiman]

I've been following this forum for the last 3 Winters and as someone with no meteorological background I'm still on a steep learning curve.  Anyone have any links to posts or idiots guides that'll help me understand better the models and the jargon?  I must admit I'm often amused at the excitement expressed about potential severe weather that always seems to be 10 days away but never arrives.  However this time around it seems like it will.  As an upper middle aged Geordie living in West Cumbria I have fond memories of epic winters on Tyneside, but not so many over here in the West.  As was the case with the last Beast we didn't see a single snowflake over here and it's possible that may be the case again.  But regardless I'll watch the models progress, the varied analysis on this forum and the real weather unfold with interest.  Any help with my learning curve will be much appreciated. 

[MJB]

55 minutes ago, Hidden in the shadows said:

Quick question, if the models are predicting a snow setup why is this not being reflected in the daily forecast?

if I type OX11 into the BBC, MO or Netweather 5 day forecast it shows very light snow showers if anything.

I mentioned the possibility of snow to my elderly parents and they should ensure they have plenty of milk, coal etc. .. they said the BBC aren’t forecasting it so there not concerned.

They are now CK is on the website with the latest video apologies OT

[sparky71a]

6 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

That pink blob up north is right over my house, generally in an easterly flow, we do fantastic, from the west, not so much. 

Generally the main models struggle with picking up showers coming in off the North sea, will be looking at the high res with interest as they come in to view. 

In 2010 I was stationed in Loftus,East Cleveland. I stood on the cliff at Skinningrove, watched the showers actually form over the water and then dump CMs at a time over us. No models/ snow depth charts,can see that. What we do know is the wind will turn E ENE, and that for us turns on N.Sea convection snow showers. Fabulous stuff!!!! 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Anthony Burden said:

Good morning Nick,

Met office 30 day /Glosea 5 bang on never keen on Atlantic lows pushing far into U.K. due to pressure rise

to the north.very cold air to stay with us for some time.

Hi Anthony

There’s a decent chance of that verifying. 

In these situations the trend is important because it’s like a domino effect going forward , if the first attempt by the Atlantic fails then the chances of the second failing also increase .

To be honest I’m just made up that this cold spell will land for my coldie friends in the UK and Ireland . In terms of any potential breakdown I’m now going to be looking at that in more detail .

My interest now moves to the Cold Extension ! 

[radiohead]

0Z ICON extends the cold right to the end of it's run at 180 and looks like it would keep going if the model went any futher.

[Tim Bland]

29 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

While everyone gets excited about snow charts for 1 week away! The ukmo this morning not quite as good as last evenings, yesterday we had a better alignment to get a more north of east flow later in the run. Today it’s earlier output shows Sunday with a easterly but with a more southerly influence hence the colder uppers are slower to come in, ecm this morning is the same in holding the coldest uppers off until Monday when we pick up a straight easterly. No point getting excited at this point with any battleground/breakdown event as its too far out.

UKMO looks good to me. Nothing marginal about those uppers for Lincolnshire ! Winds will vary from NE, E , SE but once the cold is set in all that will do is vary the shower distribution. I like the angle of attack at the end of the week as well..

[JoeShmoe]

7 minutes ago, Tanden Sparkster said:

In 2010 I was stationed in Loftus,East Cleveland. I stood on the cliff at Skinningrove, watched the showers actually form over the water and then dump CMs at a time over us. No models/ snow depth charts,can see that. What we do know is the wind will turn E ENE, and that for us turns on N.Sea convection snow showers. Fabulous stuff!!!! 

Thats very true and same happens here, those snow depth models for NE England and E Scotland coastal areas will be way off ... fax for Sunday already shows troughs / convergence zones

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all charts now beginning to show Atlantic lows being pushed further south due to

intensifying northern blocking.If correct could be in for a long very cold spell,with out harping

on to much but well done Exeter and Glosea 5.

[North East Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Tanden Sparkster said:

In 2010 I was stationed in Loftus,East Cleveland. I stood on the cliff at Skinningrove, watched the showers actually form over the water and then dump CMs at a time over us. No models/ snow depth charts,can see that. What we do know is the wind will turn E ENE, and that for us turns on N.Sea convection snow showers. Fabulous stuff!!!! 

2010 is still unsurpassed up here, it was quite unbelievable and may take some beating. 

Looking at the strength of the wind coming in early next week though, if places get stuck under a streamer then there will be some serious snowfall.

I keep hearing that the North has had its fun, and we've had a fair bit in my area, but friends 13 miles away haven't had diddly squat, so this up coming spell is hopefully going to get everyone their fill of snow

[Jarrow Posh]

21 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

That pink blob up north is right over my house, generally in an easterly flow, we do fantastic, from the west, not so much. 

Generally the main models struggle with picking up showers coming in off the North sea, will be looking at the high res with interest as they come in to view. 

You're right,we in the NE normally profit from a strong easterly with plenty of snow showers however,at the moment,there isnt a huge amount being modelled.Im hoping the HRes models will start to pick up on this nearer the time.