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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?


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Just a quick one, locations should now be displaying on posts if you're on a mobile. 🙂 

News just in ! The Crunchy Snow and Ice Day Committee will be meeting at 7pm .  On the agenda . Depth of cold and likely duration . Frontal snow prospects . Chances of a prope

We should all sit back and forget about snowfall, breakdown of cold spell and marvel at the N Hemisphere chart at only +48. I have lost count how many times I have drooled at +384 charts but even thos

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    Just now, bluearmy said:

    we’ve been here before - there’s only one direction the runs can go from this point ...... this is one edge of the envelope from ec op !

    however, some indications from the overnight runs how the evolution can keep nw Europe on the cold side of the jet beyond late next week 

    tremendous stuff !

    The good thing is there is a solid push towards trying to get some moisture and LP in towards the SW, and if that occurs somewhere is going to cop a big event eventually.

    I tend to agree that this is at the very edge of what is possible, and I also suspect things will be shunted SW over the next few days and the first attempt will probably fail to even reach the UK, but its gong to come at some point I suppose.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Really need to urge caution with these snow accumulation charts.

    These models don’t pick up shower activity well at all, so are likely underdoing the amounts 😉

    I think these are the snowiest operational runs from 2 of the major models that I have ever seen.

    Yes to this, and more caution more generally, because when models try to pick up on frontal precipitation of any type, once the totals start ramping up it becomes slight stab in the dark - a prediction of 40cm snow really means somewhere between 20cm and 70cm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow and if not erm....SNOW
  • Location: Suffolk

    Could be drifting as those winds pick up, bottom layer sticky, Monday onwards more powdery as easterly kicks in!

    image.thumb.png.6cae29c5cd56d647a46eab66960d91b1.pngWheres my paper bag, think I'm hyperventilating!☃️

    Edited by Snowmut
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Still quite a wide range of options, stretching from literally nothing from that front, all the way through to 20cms for your location.

    Hopefully it can be nearer the deeper end. 

    Of course the other thing to add is the ensembles won't really have the greatest grip on convection, so even if the front does whiff away to the east, I reckon there will be enough convection for a decent percentage of the region to make up for it.

    One thing that i find slightly concerning!!!the beast from the east had similar wind direction and because of that i missed out on the snow streamer by 5 miles and everything went north of me constantly!!nottingham had like 15 to 20cms of snow from a streamer whilst i had nothing!!the wind needs to be north east east!!next week has it direct east or just south of east i think?!!not complaining but little things like this could make a huge difference on who get snow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
    4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Day 10 in North U.K. never taps into any warmer air , Manchester North could not see positive temps for a week atleast , with lying snow for most 🥶🥶

    A0E2E45C-6F5A-43BD-970B-24F492724593.png

    And even with the less cold upper air over the south, it's still cold all the way out to 240 at the surface due to the snowfields.

    spacer.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Chipping Norton, 220mts /720ft asl
  • Location: Chipping Norton, 220mts /720ft asl
    6 minutes ago, Newben76 said:

    Nice to see the French weather channel La Chaine Meteo now talking about a major snowstorm with 'lake effect' snow affecting the UK from the weekend onwards. 

    Screenshot_20210204-073530_Chrome.jpg

    Excellent, but still depends on the track of the LP system. Fingers crossed

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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
    3 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

    Could be drifting as those winds pick up, bottom layer sticky, Monday onwards more powdery as easterly kicks in!

    image.thumb.png.6cae29c5cd56d647a46eab66960d91b1.png

    Yes it’s not really been mentioned but the wind chill next week will be significant especially in the NE where daytime max temps won’t get above freezing 

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    Posted
  • Location: Didcot, OX11
  • Location: Didcot, OX11

    Quick question, if the models are predicting a snow setup why is this not being reflected in the daily forecast?

    if I type OX11 into the BBC, MO or Netweather 5 day forecast it shows very light snow showers if anything.

    I mentioned the possibility of snow to my elderly parents and they should ensure they have plenty of milk, coal etc. .. they said the BBC aren’t forecasting it so there not concerned.

    Edited by Hidden in the shadows
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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
    10 minutes ago, Newben76 said:

    Nice to see the French weather channel La Chaine Meteo now talking about a major snowstorm with 'lake effect' snow affecting the UK from the weekend onwards. 

    Screenshot_20210204-073530_Chrome.jpg

    Nice to see they confirmed  that it will last until Wednesday but I wish it would last further than that 

     

    I wish it would last longer but the latest set of charts Today  has it until Wednesday which is such a shame as the Atlantic just seems too powerful if Only  that was slightly weaker or the low pressure is turned into sliders keep in the cold easterly winds going

    Edited by offerman
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    Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, inc Snow and Wind
  • Location: Poole
    18 minutes ago, offerman said:

    I can understand the short-term excitement as does look pretty good for a lot of us ,but only up until Wednesday, as in the south. 
    thereafter it looks like the Atlantic will prevail as it so often does, it’s just too powerful on these charts. 

    I’m no expert, but having followed this and other forums for over 15 years, generally these cold blocks are underestimated. I would add to that that the further you go out in terms of time, the less reliable the forecast, so whilst it is an outcome, it may not be a likely one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, Man Without Beard said:

    I think we'll see a small shift on the ecm ensembles in a few minutes, the individual ensembles are out to next Thursday and the line of approach from the Atlantic looks further south, in general - better for all snow event rather than snow to rain.

    Waiting for the charts from you mate!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
    2 minutes ago, julian ward said:

    Quick question, if the models are predicting a snow setup why is this not being reflected in the daily forecast?

    if I type OX11 into the BBC, MO or Netweather 5 day forecast it shows very light snow showers if anything.

    I mentioned the possibility of snow to my elderly parents and they should ensure they have plenty of milk, coal etc. .. they said the BBC aren’t forecasting it so there not concerns 

    Weather apps are computer data only. No human input really.. it’ll change a lot and nearer to any snow risk they can change to heavy snow. But don’t take apps as a forecast.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    24 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Unbelivable runs widely!!but especially for the midlands and southeastern areas from saturday!!gfs has the snow for the midlands  for sunday but the ecm has it in a very similar position as well just lighter!!getting really nervous and excited now!!starting to hit me now+!😍🥴

    Yep and by next weekend we could be looking at close to 50cm across a lot of Wales!!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    8 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Yes to this, and more caution more generally, because when models try to pick up on frontal precipitation of any type, once the totals start ramping up it becomes slight stab in the dark - a prediction of 40cm snow really means somewhere between 20cm and 70cm.

    It’s rare to get one perfect snow event from Atlantic frontal systems anyway, but the ECM manages 4 of them 😅

    Certainly caution needed.

    Much of the eastern side of the country looks pretty assured of seeing a lot of snow.

    Potential for more western (and southern and central) areas to see a lot once the Atlantic starts to try and return, but that’s always a hard one to model.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London
    21 minutes ago, offerman said:

    I can understand the short-term excitement as does look pretty good for a lot of us ,but only up until Wednesday, as in the south. 
    thereafter it looks like the Atlantic will prevail as it so often does, it’s just too powerful on these charts. 

    That's a week away, when this weekend was a week away the real cold was much further North and the talk was of rain for the South. Honestly until it's within the 48 or so hours period it's always very hard especially with this setup to say with any certainty what the end result will be.

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  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
    Just now, Jayces said:

    That's a week away, when this weekend was a week away the real cold was much further North and the talk was of rain for the South. Honestly until it's within the 48 or so hours period it's always very hard especially with this setup to say with any certainty what the end result will be.

    Best post so far for me as I’ve seen cold spells predicted and literally change within a 24-hour period only to disappear. 
     

    it does look favourable for cold but I do think you’re right in airing  a sense of caution until 24:48 hours out

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Typical of all the days the ECM ensembles means and spreads are delayed on Meteociel !

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    15 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

    Could be drifting as those winds pick up, bottom layer sticky, Monday onwards more powdery as easterly kicks in!

    image.thumb.png.6cae29c5cd56d647a46eab66960d91b1.pngWheres my paper bag, think I'm hyperventilating!☃️

    No doubt about it, some places are going to get absolutely buried if it stays this way. The charts that are showing a mind boggling 2ft of snow will not be taking drifts into account, which there will certainly be, given how much the snow will be blowing around. I’m expecting quite a powdery type, given low DP’s off the continent. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Perranporth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Ice, Thunderstorms and Heatwaves
  • Location: Perranporth

    I remember back in Feb 19 when the weather apps were giving rain for cornwall and soon as the weather front hit land it turned readily to snow. Even the metoffice got it wrong and it shows that no matter what the charts say about snow depths it can change extremely quickly.

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    Message added by Paul,

    It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

    There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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