Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Newben76 39]

Nice to see the French weather channel La Chaine Meteo now talking about a major snowstorm with 'lake effect' snow affecting the UK from the weekend onwards. 

[kold weather 12,083]

Just now, bluearmy said:

we’ve been here before - there’s only one direction the runs can go from this point ...... this is one edge of the envelope from ec op !

however, some indications from the overnight runs how the evolution can keep nw Europe on the cold side of the jet beyond late next week 

tremendous stuff !

The good thing is there is a solid push towards trying to get some moisture and LP in towards the SW, and if that occurs somewhere is going to cop a big event eventually.

I tend to agree that this is at the very edge of what is possible, and I also suspect things will be shunted SW over the next few days and the first attempt will probably fail to even reach the UK, but its gong to come at some point I suppose.

[Man Without Beard 25,232]

8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Really need to urge caution with these snow accumulation charts.

These models don’t pick up shower activity well at all, so are likely underdoing the amounts 😉

I think these are the snowiest operational runs from 2 of the major models that I have ever seen.

Yes to this, and more caution more generally, because when models try to pick up on frontal precipitation of any type, once the totals start ramping up it becomes slight stab in the dark - a prediction of 40cm snow really means somewhere between 20cm and 70cm.

[Snowmut 377]

Could be drifting as those winds pick up, bottom layer sticky, Monday onwards more powdery as easterly kicks in!

Wheres my paper bag, think I'm hyperventilating!☃️

Edited February 4 by Snowmut

[nick sussex 64,043]

Absolutely astonishing ECM op run !

The steep thermal gradient as that low tries to move in next week and the way it gets flattened with energy shearing eastwards , set to produce jaw dropping levels of snow for those who remain in the sweet spot on the northern flank of that .

Thats a way out and somewhat high risk with the way the low moves in but still quite a jaw dropping run regardless !

Edited February 4 by nick sussex

[sheikhy 4,593]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Still quite a wide range of options, stretching from literally nothing from that front, all the way through to 20cms for your location.

Hopefully it can be nearer the deeper end. 

Of course the other thing to add is the ensembles won't really have the greatest grip on convection, so even if the front does whiff away to the east, I reckon there will be enough convection for a decent percentage of the region to make up for it.

One thing that i find slightly concerning!!!the beast from the east had similar wind direction and because of that i missed out on the snow streamer by 5 miles and everything went north of me constantly!!nottingham had like 15 to 20cms of snow from a streamer whilst i had nothing!!the wind needs to be north east east!!next week has it direct east or just south of east i think?!!not complaining but little things like this could make a huge difference on who get snow!

[radiohead 3,273]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 10 in North U.K. never taps into any warmer air , Manchester North could not see positive temps for a week atleast , with lying snow for most 🥶🥶

And even with the less cold upper air over the south, it's still cold all the way out to 240 at the surface due to the snowfields.

 

[Turnedoutniceagain 1,415]

6 minutes ago, Newben76 said:

Nice to see the French weather channel La Chaine Meteo now talking about a major snowstorm with 'lake effect' snow affecting the UK from the weekend onwards. 

Excellent, but still depends on the track of the LP system. Fingers crossed

[JoeShmoe 3,281]

3 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Could be drifting as those winds pick up, bottom layer sticky, Monday onwards more powdery as easterly kicks in!

Yes it’s not really been mentioned but the wind chill next week will be significant especially in the NE where daytime max temps won’t get above freezing 

[Hidden in the shadows 28]

Quick question, if the models are predicting a snow setup why is this not being reflected in the daily forecast?

if I type OX11 into the BBC, MO or Netweather 5 day forecast it shows very light snow showers if anything.

I mentioned the possibility of snow to my elderly parents and they should ensure they have plenty of milk, coal etc. .. they said the BBC aren’t forecasting it so there not concerned.

Edited February 4 by Hidden in the shadows

[Man Without Beard 25,232]

I think we'll see a small shift on the ecm ensembles in a few minutes, the individual ensembles are out to next Thursday and the line of approach from the Atlantic looks further south, in general - better for all snow event rather than snow to rain.

[offerman 1,429]

10 minutes ago, Newben76 said:

Nice to see the French weather channel La Chaine Meteo now talking about a major snowstorm with 'lake effect' snow affecting the UK from the weekend onwards. 

Nice to see they confirmed  that it will last until Wednesday but I wish it would last further than that 

 

I wish it would last longer but the latest set of charts Today  has it until Wednesday which is such a shame as the Atlantic just seems too powerful if Only  that was slightly weaker or the low pressure is turned into sliders keep in the cold easterly winds going

Edited February 4 by offerman

[Theresnoway 102]

18 minutes ago, offerman said:

I can understand the short-term excitement as does look pretty good for a lot of us ,but only up until Wednesday, as in the south. 
thereafter it looks like the Atlantic will prevail as it so often does, it’s just too powerful on these charts. 

I’m no expert, but having followed this and other forums for over 15 years, generally these cold blocks are underestimated. I would add to that that the further you go out in terms of time, the less reliable the forecast, so whilst it is an outcome, it may not be a likely one.

[Man Without Beard 25,232]

1 minute ago, julian ward said:

Quick question, if the models are predicting a snow setup why is this not being reflected in the daily forecast?

if I type OX11 into the BBC, MO or Netweather 5 day forecast it shows very light snow showers if anything.

I mentioned the possibility of snow to my elderly parents and they should ensure they have plenty of milf, coal etc. .. they said the BBC aren’t forecasting it so there not concerns 

Because the BBC forecasts after a few days are automated. Unlike on this forum, where you've got people staying up all night analysing the life out of every available model.

[sheikhy 4,593]

1 minute ago, Man Without Beard said:

I think we'll see a small shift on the ecm ensembles in a few minutes, the individual ensembles are out to next Thursday and the line of approach from the Atlantic looks further south, in general - better for all snow event rather than snow to rain.

Waiting for the charts from you mate!!!

[Vadoseflame 1,160]

2 minutes ago, julian ward said:

Quick question, if the models are predicting a snow setup why is this not being reflected in the daily forecast?

if I type OX11 into the BBC, MO or Netweather 5 day forecast it shows very light snow showers if anything.

I mentioned the possibility of snow to my elderly parents and they should ensure they have plenty of milk, coal etc. .. they said the BBC aren’t forecasting it so there not concerns 

Weather apps are computer data only. No human input really.. it’ll change a lot and nearer to any snow risk they can change to heavy snow. But don’t take apps as a forecast.

[Jayfromcardiff 2,333]

24 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Unbelivable runs widely!!but especially for the midlands and southeastern areas from saturday!!gfs has the snow for the midlands  for sunday but the ecm has it in a very similar position as well just lighter!!getting really nervous and excited now!!starting to hit me now+!😍🥴

Yep and by next weekend we could be looking at close to 50cm across a lot of Wales!!!!!

[Sweatyman 1,435]

3 minutes ago, julian ward said:

Quick question, if the models are predicting a snow setup why is this not being reflected in the daily forecast?

if I type OX11 into the BBC, MO or Netweather 5 day forecast it shows very light snow showers if anything.

I mentioned the possibility of snow to my elderly parents and they should ensure they have plenty of milf, coal etc. .. they said the BBC aren’t forecasting it so there not concerns 

get plenty of milf in 😂

[MattStoke 6,458]

8 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Yes to this, and more caution more generally, because when models try to pick up on frontal precipitation of any type, once the totals start ramping up it becomes slight stab in the dark - a prediction of 40cm snow really means somewhere between 20cm and 70cm.

It’s rare to get one perfect snow event from Atlantic frontal systems anyway, but the ECM manages 4 of them 😅

Certainly caution needed.

Much of the eastern side of the country looks pretty assured of seeing a lot of snow.

Potential for more western (and southern and central) areas to see a lot once the Atlantic starts to try and return, but that’s always a hard one to model.

[Jayces 500]

21 minutes ago, offerman said:

I can understand the short-term excitement as does look pretty good for a lot of us ,but only up until Wednesday, as in the south. 
thereafter it looks like the Atlantic will prevail as it so often does, it’s just too powerful on these charts. 

That's a week away, when this weekend was a week away the real cold was much further North and the talk was of rain for the South. Honestly until it's within the 48 or so hours period it's always very hard especially with this setup to say with any certainty what the end result will be.

[offerman 1,429]

Just now, Jayces said:

That's a week away, when this weekend was a week away the real cold was much further North and the talk was of rain for the South. Honestly until it's within the 48 or so hours period it's always very hard especially with this setup to say with any certainty what the end result will be.

Best post so far for me as I’ve seen cold spells predicted and literally change within a 24-hour period only to disappear. 
 

it does look favourable for cold but I do think you’re right in airing  a sense of caution until 24:48 hours out

[nick sussex 64,043]

Typical of all the days the ECM ensembles means and spreads are delayed on Meteociel !

Edited February 4 by nick sussex

[Hidden in the shadows 28]

8 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

get plenty of milf in 😂

I’d love to say this was predictive text, but you haven’t met my stepfather 

Edited February 4 by Hidden in the shadows

[East_England_Stormchaser91 5,663]

15 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Could be drifting as those winds pick up, bottom layer sticky, Monday onwards more powdery as easterly kicks in!

Wheres my paper bag, think I'm hyperventilating!☃️

No doubt about it, some places are going to get absolutely buried if it stays this way. The charts that are showing a mind boggling 2ft of snow will not be taking drifts into account, which there will certainly be, given how much the snow will be blowing around. I’m expecting quite a powdery type, given low DP’s off the continent. 

[RCT 30]

I remember back in Feb 19 when the weather apps were giving rain for cornwall and soon as the weather front hit land it turned readily to snow. Even the metoffice got it wrong and it shows that no matter what the charts say about snow depths it can change extremely quickly.