Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Biggin]

8 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Well it seems upgrades have occured since I last posted. Finally we can look into some detail because I need to make sure I have plenty of supplies. My mobility scooter is rubbish in the snow!

The transition period is between sat night/sun. A band of rain will turn to snow affecting from N lincs to SE. This continues throughout sunday and although the snow will be light/moderate, due to temps, dewpoints the amounts will build up. Probably a little break on Monday from snowfall before the snow showers begin flooding in. Main areas affected is Lincs, E Midlands, E Anglia.

Obviously the NE of England/Scotland will be hit hard by the snow shower activity. Difficult to predict for Wales, NW England, W Midlands, SW England. More reliant on low pressure from the atlantic bringing a blizzard for its snowfall.

Snow chains is the answer Teits......

[Griff]

14 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Definitely trending that way look at the difference just from yesterdays 12z run.

Reading across twitter, the Americans think their mega cold might slow down in its progression east, which I guess is good for us long term

 

7 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Well it seems upgrades have occured since I last posted. Finally we can look into some detail because I need to make sure I have plenty of supplies. My mobility scooter is rubbish in the snow!

The transition period is between sat night/sun. A band of rain will turn to snow affecting from N lincs to SE. This continues throughout sunday and although the snow will be light/moderate, due to temps, dewpoints the amounts will build up. Probably a little break on Monday from snowfall before the snow showers begin flooding in. Main areas affected is Lincs, E Midlands, E Anglia.

Obviously the NE of England/Scotland will be hit hard by the snow shower activity. Difficult to predict for Wales, NW England, W Midlands, SW England. More reliant on low pressure from the atlantic bringing a blizzard for its snowfall.

Well... I don't think even the emojis will do justice this morning. 

Woke up expecting something in a way of a wobble or at least conflicting charts somewhere. 

Lost for words really.... 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, mbrothers said:

I can’t believe we would see nothing 

Snow zone on the ECM roughly starts around Plymouth eastwards.

I admit I'd be surprised if there was nothing as well, but it does depend just how much of a W-E push there is.

CMC gives you guys early snow before the front pushes eastwards and turns it back to rain duing the day on Wednesday 

[Guest]

This is going to take the General public by surprise when the Snowmageddon forecasts start appearing on TV!

 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

 

Well... I don't think even the emojis will do justice this morning. 

Woke up expecting something in a way of a wobble or at least conflicting charts somewhere. 

Lost for words really.... 

I don't think it's a ramp to say this would be historic if the ECM verified like shown.

 

[sheikhy]

Unbelivable runs widely!!but especially for the midlands and southeastern areas from saturday!!gfs has the snow for the midlands  for sunday but the ecm has it in a very similar position as well just lighter!!getting really nervous and excited now!!starting to hit me now+!

[Ali1977]

The ICON high res definitely shows the snow getting much further west even by Tuesday - this depths prior to any frontal snow later in the week!! 

[Man With Beard]

Well that's as close to a 1947 set of op runs as I've ever seen. To see a foot or more of level snow over such a large area - on more than one op run - is remarkable, even a little dangerous.

Can it really happen? It's slightly out from previous ensemble guidance for the end of next week. But if all the op runs are leaning that way, it would be slightly unrealistic to rule it out, surely

[offerman]

I can understand the short-term excitement as does look pretty good for a lot of us ,but only up until Wednesday, as in the south. 
thereafter it looks like the Atlantic will prevail as it so often does, it’s just too powerful on these charts. 

[saintkip]

20 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM 00z snow depths out to Saturday morning, exceptional snow event for the southern half of England.

With 3-4 frontal events within 48hrs, these would be reasonable were it to occur!

30-40cms widely by Saturday night:

That’ll do

[kold weather]

ECM ensembles have definitely shifted eastwards with Sundays snowfall it has to be said.

However they won't handle the showers very well, which I think will in all likelyhood make up for less frontal snow in places that normally do well in such airflows.

[feb1991blizzard]

18 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM 00z snow depths out to Saturday morning, exceptional snow event for the southern half of England.

With 3-4 frontal events within 48hrs, these would be reasonable were it to occur!

30-40cms widely by Saturday night:

 

That's an exceptional event everywhere, 27cm in Central London, thats about 10 times the amount needed to cripple the transport network, 15cm would cripple Manchester CC, just not used to it in big cities.

[sheikhy]

Ecm gives me 10cms already on sunday and thats just the start of the cold spell!!in the end its 30cms from ecm and 33 from gfs

[MattStoke]

Really need to urge caution with these snow accumulation charts.

These models don’t pick up shower activity well at all, so are likely underdoing the amounts

I think these are the snowiest operational runs from 2 of the major models that I have ever seen.

[P-M]

Morning all. Well after a really bleak year for me (and everyone else) and getting over Covid for a second time in November I can finally start to be happy! 

All I would add to the brilliant posts already on here is that those snow depth charts don't really take into account convective snow showers well IMO. Although the models are showing disruptive snow for the south and SE, the North and East and Eastern side of the UK looks likely to get pummelled with convective showers which can quickly accumulate even right down to the coast. 

 

Either way an exciting time for model watching and I for one can not wait to stock the fridge up and start radar watching from the weekend! 

 

 

[Kentspur]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I do t think shower activity is even being taken into account on these snow charts, get some streamer type activity and I think you could add these figures to certain spots.

I used to live near Carlisle in Cumbria, and they often did quite well in an Easterly but nothing much showing over to the west up there on the current snow charts - so I think they are underplaying depths that could occur further west.

I would push that red line further W in the SE looks like on a number of models we will be obtaining a ENE flow at times and the Thames will fire up some good convection the little patch of brown gives you an idea of my thinking historically this set up is great for W/NW Kent and parts of SE London

Edited February 4, 2021 by Kentspur

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

ECM ensembles have definitely shifted eastwards with Sundays snowfall it has to be said.

However they won't handle the showers very well, which I think will in all likelyhood make up for less frontal snow in places that normally do well in such airflows.

Has the snow band very similar position to gfs 00z just lighter and slightly further east!!!

[Frosty.]

Loving the new mid term 0z model trend to prolong the cold by sending lows on a more southerly track..fingers crossed this will be a wintery spell to fondly remember in years to come!..good luck to everyone..at last, coldies are getting some richly deserved luck following recent abysmal winters!

[radiohead]

0Z ECM is the snowiest ECM run I have ever seen. Extraordinary totals being shown, which would certainly be even higher locally than shown here. And virutally everyone gets some snow. It really doesn't get much better than this.

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Well that's as close to a 1947 set of op runs as I've ever seen. To see a foot or more of level snow over such a large area - on more than one op run - is remarkable, even a little dangerous.

Can it really happen? It's slightly out from previous ensemble guidance for the end of next week. But if all the op runs are leaning that way, it would be slightly unrealistic to rule it out, surely

My guess is the 00z ECM is probably about as perfect as you can get for widespread deep snowfall.

However even the GFs and the CMC still have solid snow events, especially for the Midlands. All three of the longer range models are showing what could be quite large events, its just how severe could it become?

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Has the snow band very similar position to gfs 00z just lighter and slightly further east!!!

Still quite a wide range of options, stretching from literally nothing from that front, all the way through to 20cms for your location.

Hopefully it can be nearer the deeper end. 

Of course the other thing to add is the ensembles won't really have the greatest grip on convection, so even if the front does whiff away to the east, I reckon there will be enough convection for a decent percentage of the region to make up for it.

[Ali1977]

Day 10 in North U.K. never taps into any warmer air , Manchester North could not see positive temps for a week atleast , with lying snow for most

Edited February 4, 2021 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I don't think it's a ramp to say this would be historic if the ECM verified like shown.

 

we’ve been here before - there’s only one direction the runs can go from this point ...... this is one edge of the envelope from ec op !

however, some indications from the overnight runs how the evolution can keep nw Europe on the cold side of the jet beyond late next week 

tremendous stuff !

[mulzy]

Day 9-10 mean EPS trending colder.  Less ridging to the south with the jet cutting through the UK.

[goosey007]

4 minutes ago, radiohead said:

0Z ECM is the snowiest ECM run I have ever seen. Extraordinary totals being shown, which would certainly be even higher locally than shown here. And virutally everyone gets some snow. It really doesn't get much better than this.

WHAT only a foot of snow for me in south east wales......love it when so many of us are in the game. Everybody is so positive ....i do spare a thought for those in the far south west.