Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[mulzy]

Heavy snow in the south on the disrupting  trough 168 to 192 on the ECM.  Uppers should be cold enough.

[Cheshire Freeze]

EC is solid out to day 8 this morning. Lovely jubbly!

[londonblizzard]

Zero marginality issues from the ECM for monday

 

[Battleground Snow]

Snow depths by Sunday afternoon.

 

[rotherhamsnowman]

10 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

And thats only after the first days snow imagine waking up monday to that knowing you have at least 2 more days of smow to come!!

Think that’s for Monday 15th Scott? Apologies if I’ve read it wrong?

[sheikhy]

What we have seen is an upgrade of epic proportion!!not only early on but even later in terms of longevity!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Snow depths by Sunday afternoon.

 

You have a link to these charts mate? I find weatherus very clunky

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, CreweCold said:

You have a link to these charts mate? I find weatherus very clunky

There you go, it wasn't working yesterday, but seems good today.

https://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf&region=eng&chart=snowdepth,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=00&step=105&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Had a feeling that we would see upgrades, and a continuation of upgrades into this morning. Frigid air like this will be a hard job shifting. Not even a joke with some runs that could be likened to 1947 or 1979!! I’ve never seen snowier looking charts, and you would struggle to draw better ones for heavy driving snow. This will be rivalling the BFTE that’s for sure. 

Edited February 4, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[The Rock]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Snow depths by Sunday afternoon.

 

Do they not do snow depths for Ireland

[Guest]

The Beast never goes quietly! Anyone thinking this will be blown away in 5 days may need to re-evaluate!

[Light Without Heat]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

There you go, it wasn't working yesterday, but seems good today.

https://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf&region=eng&chart=snowdepth,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=00&step=105&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0

The animation on those charts watching the depths

[Chesil View]

A minor tweak south and the mild air wouldn't touch the UK at all.

[kold weather]

Very snowy run again for most on the 00z ECM has to be said.

Saturday night has shifted a little to the ESE again , main focus now for EA and maybe SE with a smaller amount for E.Midlands than compared with the 12z ECM.

Warm air really struggling to push in, with several events working their way progressively further north but a real struggle.

15-20cms widely eventually for a good chunk of England and Wales.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

A minor tweak south and the mild air wouldn't touch the UK at all.

Definitely trending that way look at the difference just from yesterdays 12z run.

Reading across twitter, the Americans think their mega cold might slow down in its progression east, which I guess is good for us long term

[kold weather]

ECM 00z snow depths out to Saturday morning, exceptional snow event for the southern half of England.

With 3-4 frontal events within 48hrs, these would be reasonable were it to occur!

30-40cms widely by Saturday night:

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Ali1977]

Day 10, I guess there’s lots of battleground snow falling down south!! 

[TEITS]

Well it seems upgrades have occured since I last posted. Finally we can look into some detail because I need to make sure I have plenty of supplies. My mobility scooter is rubbish in the snow!

The transition period is between sat night/sun. A band of rain will turn to snow affecting from N lincs to SE. This continues throughout sunday and although the snow will be light/moderate, due to temps, dewpoints the amounts will build up. Probably a little break on Monday from snowfall before the snow showers begin flooding in. Main areas affected is Lincs, E Midlands, E Anglia.

Obviously the NE of England/Scotland will be hit hard by the snow shower activity. Difficult to predict for Wales, NW England, W Midlands, SW England. More reliant on low pressure from the atlantic bringing a blizzard for its snowfall.

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM 00z snow depths out to Saturday morning, exceptional snow event for the southern half of England.

With 3-4 frontal events within 48hrs, these would be reasonable were it to occur!

30-40cms widely by Saturday night:

Well at least the point I was making last night has been born out. 
 

Some big totals showing later next week now.

[Battleground Snow]

8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM 00z snow depths out to Saturday morning, exceptional snow event for the southern half of England.

With 3-4 frontal events within 48hrs, these would be reasonable were it to occur!

That looks like that ensemble you shared from last night that looked impossible. I don't even think the ECM is picking up all the convection either!

Edited February 4, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 10, I guess there’s lots of battleground snow falling down south!! 

Yes FOUR seperate snow events on the ECM.

Worth noting the 30-40cms above is half way thorugh the 4th major snow event, so you could probably add another 5-10cms onto that total for S.Midlands in particular.

Probably the snowiest operational run I've ever seen for the southern half of the UK. It will be interesting to see how many ensemble members go quite as snowy.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

That looks like that ensemble you shared from last night that looked impossible. I don't even think the ECM is picking up all the convention either!

Yes, I'm guessing it also had a very similar type event.

No doubts that the 00z operaitonal is right at the top end of what is in theory possible.

I think there are increasing signals that there will be attempts from the SW, though how easily it can push through appears uncertain. I think it may be the case though that the lows and fronts will keep on coming through until the dam breaks, which could lead to good snowfalls where that stalling out process happens. 

History would suggest this zone shifts SW, but we will see.

[MKN]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yes FOUR seperate snow events on the ECM.

Worth noting the 30-40cms above is half way thorugh the 4th major snow event, so you could probably add another 5-10cms onto that total for S.Midlands in particular.

Probably the snowiest operational run I've ever seen for the southern half of the UK. It will be interesting to see how many ensemble members go quite as snowy.

And then bare in mind significant drifting also.

[Battleground Snow]

It's still snowing past day 10 midlands north

 

[Ali1977]

I do t think shower activity is even being taken into account on these snow charts, get some streamer type activity and I think you could add these figures to certain spots.

I used to live near Carlisle in Cumbria, and they often did quite well in an Easterly but nothing much showing over to the west up there on the current snow charts - so I think they are underplaying depths that could occur further west.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Ali1977