Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Kentspur]

Looks like she's going under further south than 18z!

[feb1991blizzard]

Big Blizzard coming up!

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Scandi surface HP!

THIS is what we want to see more of.

Almost like they answered your prayers from earlier!

[Cheshire Freeze]

The further S that LP is pushed the better. We will be able to keep winds SE'ly for longer ahead of the front and encourage more engagement of the cold air as the front pushes N. Could be a mega snow event if it plays out correctly!

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Kentspur said:

Looks like she's going under further south than 18z!

If the progressive GFS is trying to take it under even after blowing it up, I can't wait to see the ECM take on it later!

[feb1991blizzard]

[scottishandy]

Looks to me like UKMO pushes Atlantic low back S and E between 120 and 144, don't know how that will develop but indicates the power of the Easterly!

[Snowman.]

Elongation and trough disruption two things models have struggled with this winter. 
 

Add more of that to the 0z and it’s hard not to get drawn in...

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks like a dry easterly to me Feb!

Seriously though, someone is going to need a red warning at some point over the next 7 days

[Scott Ingham]

49 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

No complaints with icon at 150

Can the huge low slide? Might just be enough pressure around Iceland to make it happen.

Edit: 180, wow it does! Great start today!

 

Increased amounts of AAM filtering???

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yep, look at the difference a small adjustment has made.

Maybe people can understand the point I was making earlier now. 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Looks like a dry easterly to me Feb!

Seriously though, someone is going to need a red warning at some point over the next 7 days

It is probably going to be dry here but that blizzard would deliver for the other 90% of the country and no mistake.

 

[Andypvfc]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Yep, look at the difference a small adjustment has made.

Maybe people can understand the point I was making earlier now. 

Even Crewe gets some, which would be a miracle.

[london-snow]

So lovely to be working the night shifts this week and with that spare time reading the ups and downs and flow of the forum, 

What is even better at this point in time was gambling to take next week as paid leave. I had to submit this request before monday gone and previous years the gamble has failed miserably. This time could be the jackpot ️ 

[Battleground Snow]

GEM at 126, 

Edit: by 156 looks close to GFS. Proper blizzard

Edited February 4, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Snowman.]

GEM is quite a ways further south, meaning only the SE gets the front action and no mild sectors at all.

But has better convection for a majority of the UK also a Thames streamer for Kent...

[Kentspur]

5 minutes ago, london-snow said:

So lovely to be working the night shifts this week and with that spare time reading the ups and downs and flow of the forum, 

What is even better at this point in time was gambling to take next week as paid leave. I had to submit this request before monday gone and previous years the gamble has failed miserably. This time could be the jackpot ️ 

Same im doing overtime on nights until Saturday night which looks great timing as I'll be off for a few days after to enjoy the ?❄ hopefully!

[Snowman.]

GEM massive snow event 

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

GEM massive snow event 

You're not wrong!

 

This is what's at stake next week. If the Atlantic incursion is just right, some areas could see 10-12 inches of snow.

Edited February 4, 2021 by CreweCold

[Mr snowman 2018]

My neck of the woods Lincolnshire  would be cut off by Monday afternoon if the 00z is to be believed  !

[Summerstorm]

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

GEM massive snow event 

*blizzard alert* from the Midlands north about 24-32 hours of snow from that bad boy with 25-35 mph wind gusts. 

[Snowman.]

Just now, CreweCold said:

You're not wrong!

 

This is what's at stake next week.

Turns to rain back end but if the GEM came to be everyone would be involved with that event and just slightly better elongation would keep more of it snow. 

 

Are we on the brink of a truly memorable cold spell? Time will tell but the 0z are upgrades for longevity definitely 

 

[Andypvfc]

1 minute ago, Summerstorm said:

*blizzard alert* from the Midlands north about 24-32 hours of snow from that bad boy with 25-35 mph wind gusts. 

What day, just so I know what day park my Taxi up

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Turns to rain back end but if the GEM came to be everyone would be involved with that event and just slightly better elongation would keep more of it snow. 

 

Are we on the brink of a truly memorable cold spell? Time will tell but the 0z are upgrades for longevity definitely 

 

This is what I was yearning to see from the 0z runs. It's where the 18zs failed. That blizzard would elevate it from a very good event for the few to an excellent event for the many.

[Summerstorm]

2 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

What day, just so I know what day park my Taxi up

Just leave it on the ramp... just for fun at this stage of course just a mere 8 days away what could possibly go wrong