Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Decemberof2010]

Colder run earlier for sure. 18z  first 

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Decemberof2010

[bluearmy]

 

the story of this easterly is that the thicknesses are so high in respect of the uppers.  Zero degree isotherm down to the surface and the 528 through the midlands.  

I’m sure that if the flow maintains for a few days then the thicknesses will drop further 

[ICE COLD]

Definitely better than the 12z run 

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

 

the story of this easterly is that the thicknesses are so high in respect of the uppers.  Zero degree isotherm down to the surface and the 528 through the midlands.  

I’m sure that if the flow maintains for a few days then the thicknesses will drop further 

What will that mean on the ground? Bigger, less powdery snow flakes?

[Mike Poole]

Early signs a good 18z pub run, 

[kold weather]

No marginality on this run as the warm sector is booted off to the east.

As Nick said there will be alot of snow showers coming in from the ENE/NE (more NE airflow to the SE near the LP.

I suspect there will be more snow showers further west than the global models will show as they don't really have the resolution to resolve small streamer features all that well.

[Timmytour]

It can't be denied that a breakdown is being shown.  I just hope that the ECM is as right in predicting the weather eight days out away from now as it was at predicting what this Saturday was going to look like last week...

That said, we can't ignore what the models are showing at that time-frame and yet go overboard when they show the beginning of a coldspell at the same time-frame.

I hate it when snow stops falling despite how long it has fallen for.  I hate it when temperatures start to climb above freezing no matter how long they have been freezing for.   But I've got used to the fact that it will happen whatever I wish for.

I get the feeling its going to be the kind of winter that keeps offering us bits of the winter cherry even into April.  And also give us some taste of summer fruits along the way.....

 

[MP-R]

11 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

EA, especially Norfolk taking a dumping on Sunday according to the GFS 18z

Quite incredible how snow manages to cross the whole continent but can’t face crossing the UK...

We’ll need some troughs in the flow a la Feb 2 2009 to get some decent snow westwards off an easterly.

[pyrotech]

My post was about the models and what is shown in Fi

Its probably the most interesting part of model watching right now, as cold and snow is almost guaranteed for the South East during Saturday - Tuesday.

Its likely for some snow even imby. Many areas will see some snow and settled snow.

How much and where exactly is pointless as it will change and cause some disappointment and others will have nice surprise.

Its fun thou and we all enjoy seeing the possible accumulations mount up, including me.

However  the real interest now in meteorology is watching the models try to get a grip on the length of the cold spell and the depth of the cold. The battleground can be amazing.  So far, we have seen the cold air retreat and return South 3 times, its really stubborn against the cold dense air. I have never said the cold spell is over, i just posted two charts from 2 main player models with one possible scenario that their operation runs suggest, with then the Ensembles contradicting somewhat, what they show. The UKMO and previous runs have indicated a better solution.  What would be useful on here is some valid analysis on the heights to our North and the effect on Jet stream (including USA storm) and how the models are changing them. The MJO with lag is perfect for a more blocked pattern, for me it must be the contrast in temp  coming from USA that is causing the changes predicted, but are they likely or over cooked.

Please do not see this as in anyway taking away the snow many of us will see over the next 5 days plus, but if we can look for cold in fi when not in place, surely we can look in fi for signals from the models on what is likely next.  

 

[seabreeze86]

The 18z is toying with the idea of a wedge of heights pushing down towards Iceland. Will it be enough to disrupt the low and send it under

 

edit not this time but something that is definitely still a possibility 

Edited February 3, 2021 by seabreeze86

[geordiekev]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The flow is strong and unstable so this isn’t just a coastal scenario. Any troughs that move sw in the flow are able to maintain more potency.

You often get surprises , get the cold in , and keep it for around 5 days minimum and more time for those surprises !

Yep, seen plenty of localised low systems pop up out of nowhere when viewing wind vectors on radar, especially in strengthened easterlies.

Radar watching at it's finest

[Decemberof2010]

Just look at the difference of that cold pool to,the east. Bigger and colder and closer. 

 

[Mikey Skins]

As it stands I am sure there will be snow for loads of us in varying amounts. 

People falling out about it takes alot away from the reason I joined this group when we should all be excited about the charts and what we are about to experience. I'm in the North and I have seen about 1cm all winter so this we deserve some more than others is nonsense. 

I'm excited about it where ever it may fall. 

I'm in sherwood forest about 60miles inland just below sheffield and I think I will see a decent dumping. I am still hoping others will too so let's play nice and keep it informative, especially for us newbies.

Stay safe and let's get the cold in... the rest will follow.

[snowbob]

Got to love the posts looking for the breakdown of cold that hasn’t arrived yet lol

its like changing your winning lottery numbers before the draw

just relax and let the models do what they do.

seriously 

 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

What will that mean on the ground? Bigger, less powdery snow flakes?

dew points more relevant to that John .... 

[kold weather]

Just now, geordiekev said:

Yep, seen plenty of localised low systems pop up out of nowhere when viewing wind vectors on radar, especially in strengthened easterlies.

Radar watching at it's finest

This flow looks very unstable I've got to say, so yeah I wouldn't be at all surprised if little troughs and fronts pop up at times given the flow is basically quite cyclonic in the forecast.

Some uncertainty with how far west that will all push, but I wouldn't be surprised if streamers in particular push much further west than forecasted.

 

[wightwootton]

Check out the 18z para // , its almost up with the op. Looks even better for the South and SE 

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by wightwootton

[MJB]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

This flow looks very unstable I've got to say, so yeah I wouldn't be at all surprised if little troughs and fronts pop up at times given the flow is basically quite cyclonic in the forecast.

Some uncertainty with how far west that will all push, but I wouldn't be surprised if streamers in particular push much further west than forecasted.

 

At least to East Wales I'd say 

[snowbob]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

This flow looks very unstable I've got to say, so yeah I wouldn't be at all surprised if little troughs and fronts pop up at times given the flow is basically quite cyclonic in the forecast.

Some uncertainty with how far west that will all push, but I wouldn't be surprised if streamers in particular push much further west than forecasted.

 

Been banging that drum for days now

the models will not show showers and streamers at this stage they will pop up at short notice 

[Snowman31]

 

 

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Snowman31

[bluearmy]

glad to see the para back !
 

[Johnp]

High pressure holding slightly firmer out east this time.  

[Tim Bland]

A lot more snow from the easterly than shown on the 12z and the breakdown pushed back half a day...will take that as a win

[goosey007]

5 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Quite incredible how snow manages to cross the whole continent but can’t face crossing the UK...

We’ll need some troughs in the flow a la Feb 2 2009 to get some decent snow westwards off an easterly.

Yes our only chance is to get the cold well established and then Atlantic tries but fails and stalls over the west......first few days likely to be just dry and really cold in the west looking at it.

[ICE COLD]

The para is lot better with cold for everyone