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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?


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Just a quick one, locations should now be displaying on posts if you're on a mobile. 🙂 

News just in ! The Crunchy Snow and Ice Day Committee will be meeting at 7pm .  On the agenda . Depth of cold and likely duration . Frontal snow prospects . Chances of a prope

We should all sit back and forget about snowfall, breakdown of cold spell and marvel at the N Hemisphere chart at only +48. I have lost count how many times I have drooled at +384 charts but even thos

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    2 minutes ago, rug said:

    Oh my, that is just beautiful.

    Its probably the snowiest ensemble member I've ever seen, to have such a large percentage of the entire UK and Ireland as wel above 20cms with a considerable area between 30-45cms is very impressive.

    Of course, its 100% not going to happen! 

    But its nice to see every once in a while. Maybe I'll do the same for tomorrow runs if I get time?

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    4 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

    Is there any chance of a thames streamer setting up across south London we normally do quite well thanks.

    Every chance my friend.. things are ripe for @expolsive streamer precipitation!!... 🤘👊👊👊@estuary infer.

    9859A6D4-9D43-4946-B79D-FA090518F8BB.png

    3D1DD511-A2EC-4C67-89C2-6DDEA921513F.png

    67778D52-9154-415E-B064-56BFA71B137F.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    I’m not great at reading these,  but the below (for the south east) suggests there are some options re a more prolonged cold spell 🤔

    CFFB8449-75E3-4C4B-9521-D19100FA12B5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    19 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

    hi guys, great to read the positive vibes regarding the potential upcomming cold spell, we all know though that if it can go wrong it will go wrong so what potential flies in the ointment if any are the models showing that could scupper the uk getting the cold in? 

    Not many - that's probably why there's been a lot of discussion over potential breakdowns.  There is unanimous agreement among the models that the cold air will reach the vast majority of the country by T+96, which is just four days away.  The deep cold (<-10C 850hPa) might not make it into the south and west of the country, but in those areas in an easterly flow you don't need that magnitude of cold for precipitation to be snow rather than rain - it's mainly in the east (especially eastern Scotland and north-east England where there is a long track over the North Sea, and especially near the coast) where it needs to be that cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brynmawr
  • Location: Brynmawr
    12 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Ecm mean is brilliant for cold not just for the places already likely to get the "beast", but for the far south too, on Monday/Tuesday. 

    Although the Atlantic fights back at the end of the week, uppers are slow to climb, so lots of battleground snow possible.

    I'm not sure the low will be barrelling in at the end of the week as shown.  With this kind of set up, any breakdown is difficult to predict until much nearer the time.  The met Office don't see any breakdown next week, saying that any Atlantic systems will make little progress.  Definitely snowmaking scenarios playing out next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    It's probably not going to last very long against a proper Beast however this is just for starters however it does seem early on it reaches a stagnation point on the Coasts so for the Coasts the cold could last for longer typically it stagnating on the East Coast meaning that there could be more snow falling in the East although the Weakening of the system with less precipitation falling could mean that the difference is marginel but the main system for when it arrives will not be marginal and will be a major event although this could all change. Wow that Was all in one sentence anyway thanks to the team meaning that we could see the Locations on mobile, it really helps. 

    Xander

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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

    Can’t remember being this excited waiting for a GFS pub run for a long while.

    The mere suggestion of streamer type set ups has this Man of Kent very excited. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
    5 minutes ago, throwoff said:

    Can’t remember being this excited waiting for a GFS pub run for a long while.

    The mere suggestion of streamer type set ups has this Man of Kent very excited. 

    Same as, I believe we had some streamers just the other week when the tempertures were marginal and it was cold rain for the weekend and about 4 degrees... I remember thinking imagine if this was all snow instead of the floods we got here in kent. Looking at the latest models then we should be fine. I think we may need the wind more from a NE rather than a straight Easterly but pleanty of time for that...

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    Posted
  • Location: University of Reading
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW! And a good thunderstorm
  • Location: University of Reading

    Hi everyone, 

    After all the flipping and flopping of the models, particularly the GFS over last weekend/early this week, I noticed a little pattern with them. I've demonstrated it in an EXTREMELY unscientific graph 🤣. The graph itself is quite self-explanatory but its fits in quite well with how this cold spell has come into view. Over the weekend we were approximately 8/9 days away (taking Sunday 7th as the start) and at that time we would see an amazing run, followed by an awful one, I think we had an excellent 12z one day, and after a run like that its almost INEVITABLE to have a downgrade succeed it, which we did with that pub run! Now I'd say we're at day 3/4, and we're seeing very slight adjustments on a general scale, but the general theme of cold is nailed on.

    (p.s. This graph is really only talking about large-scale trends, not precise tracks of lows or streamers etc.)

    In terms of the 'breakdown' of the cold spell, we're back at the start, say day 10. So one run we see the models go for a quick breakdown, and the next they want to extend the spell out longer, we might not get clarity on this when we're down to day 4/5, and by that point we'll be well into the spell, so my advice would be to enjoy what's about to happen whether its just cold, cold and snowy, or snowmageddon!  Let's worry about the breakdown as and when! 

    I fully understand I am way way way over-simplifying the complexity of the models and they all behave differently in different circumstances, but I found that to be a not bad template at keeping emotions in check, especially after a bad run, as it's only up from there! 

    Hope it's sort of useful, James 

     

     

    IMG_3796.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    3 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    For those already worrying about the model output which shows the Atlantic lows barrelling through later next and flooding the entire UK with mild air I suggest you go over to the Meto further outlook thread and take a look todays met office ten day trend video posted there.  Because according to them that's the one option that isn't on the table.

    It’s at best a transition.. which would in itself be a great offer on the table... but with the modelled incursion.. it certainly will Not be a clean atl barrel break..I think we’ll see when we have the easterly @the surface... she won’t be going anywhere quick!!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:


    Met update bullish of the Atlantic not really getting in bar the far South west and heights remaining to the north . They’ve got this first section of the cold spell bang on with there update regarding high pressure when we didn’t really see it in the model output . Will they be right on the next stage of the forecast. Really hope so . 

    Well they say it’s uncertain how far north the Atlantic gets across the U.K. ...... they don’t dismiss it as an option ....

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    We seem to be on the cusp of getting something we only experience in the UK around 25-30 times every winter..... a chart showing winter nirvana!

    Only this time the final 0 will be missing from the usual T240.........

      

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Well they say it’s uncertain how far north the Atlantic gets across the U.K. ...... they don’t dismiss it as an option ....

    8th to 17th says the Atlantic will struggle to make inroads Nick ? The ECM barrels the Atlantic in . Not saying it won’t happen but the update sounds far more  promising than the end of the ECM. 🙂

    EF9958F0-1C00-438F-A8DF-8A7103081F00.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    Dewpoint and winddirection. EC oper and control are in line with the members. A significant cluster with long cold weather.

    eps_pluim_dd_06260 avond 3 februari 2021.png

    eps_pluim_td_06260 dauwpunt avond 3 februari.png

    It's a long shot but what we all need to pray for is the continuation of the cold. Why? Because it could be potentially epic with repeated Atlantic incursions against a block of cold air. This scenario would be night and day by comparison to what the op is showing at D9 and 10.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM clusters T192-T240:

    80BD0E70-6EDF-4458-92A4-30AC71A558B3.thumb.png.23f1ac26977a752c5f98f003587cc300.png

    Which would you kick out of bed for farting?   They all have promise...

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Some of the model predictions for February are looking blocked and cold with northern Blocking well and truly locked and the beast with nowhere else to go but our direction.  So i think any Atlantic attempts wont last long with all the blocking its showing. 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    8th to 17th says the Atlantic will struggle to make inroads Nick ? The ECM barrels the Atlantic in . Not saying it won’t happen but the update sounds far more  promising than the end of the ECM. 🙂

    EF9958F0-1C00-438F-A8DF-8A7103081F00.png

    the table is v large beyond next Thursday ........

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    Message added by Paul,

    It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

    There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Thundery breakdown underway but still some last minute sunshine and warmth this weekend

      The heatwave is over, with the breakdown getting underway in southern England first this weekend. Further north and west there'll still be plenty of very warm sunshine on offer, before the weather becomes much less settled countrywide next week. Read the full update here

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