Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Snowman.]

Look who we have here!

 

[ICE COLD]

ECM is a naughty run tonight 

T168 !!!!!!!!!!!! 

[DAVE_ALLEN]

Just imagine.... If this did that  

[Tim Bland]

Widely 3-4 “ of snow on the ground by Monday evening and that’s only 36hrs into the cold spell! ..

[kold weather]

Following on from my previous post, here is 3hrs after that chart, again mild sector pretty obvious when looking at the expected conditions on the model:

Marginal zone runs roughly from the Wash SW towards the IoW.

Once that passes through, it will be more than cold enough again everywhere.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168

Well, I think it might be more disorganised than the UKMO but the same picture is being painted, basically a reverse circulation around a quite oddly shaped proportion of the NH, which would imply lows continue to go under.

[Met4Cast]

Imagine being in a position where -5c is considered "mild" lol, anything falling out of the sky even in that "mild sector" would be snowfall. 

Rain turning to frontal snow across EA/SE Saturday night & into Sunday if the ECM has this modelled right. Meanwhile much of E England & Scotland are being absolutely caked by snow showers.

[rotherhamsnowman]

Just now, DAVE_ALLEN said:

Just imagine.... If this did that  

What would happen if that did that and is it a possibility??

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Very cold ECM but certainly looks like a brief spell of cold to very cold weather before the Atlantic moves in to me, much like the GFS mean.

Aye but looks much less deep on the EC, Wed already better

[tight isobar]

168 the cold filter still pumping.. and we look to possible battleground Synoptics moving forward... unreal stuff.. it’s American winter synops.....@compare

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Widely 3-4 “ of snow on the ground by Monday evening and that’s only 36hrs into the cold spell! ..

Totals in the SE would likely be somewhat higher with any convectional snowfall having taken place

 

[butler_son]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Widely 3-4 “ of snow on the ground by Monday evening and that’s only 36hrs into the cold spell! ..

Is this not Tuesday morning? It says for 9pm CST (3am UK).

[DAVE_ALLEN]

2 minutes ago, rotherhamsnowman said:

What would happen if that did that and is it a possibility??

Winds would reach sever gale force easterly across most of Southern England. Possibly Storm force in the Channel.. Grim

[sheikhy]

What an ecm this evening!!!bring on the snow for me here and for everyone else!!!

[MKN]

6 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

UKMO and ECM 144h side by side.

Both very cold at that timeframe, UKMO Easterly, ECM more of a SE component.
They handle the Atlantic differently.

I don't know what EC 168h will look like.

Pressure around iceland hugely different, ecm is poor compared to ukmo. 

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Imagine being in a position where -5c is considered "mild" lol, anything falling out of the sky even in that "mild sector" would be snowfall. 

Rain turning to frontal snow across EA/SE Saturday night & into Sunday if the ECM has this modelled right. Meanwhile much of E England & Scotland are being absolutely caked by snow showers.

HAHA! as you say I've seen  some winters where we have chased down a patch of -5 from 168

[Cold Winter Night]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168

Well, I think it might be more disorganised than the UKMO but the same picture is being painted, basically a reverse circulation around a quite oddly shaped proportion of the NH, which would imply lows continue to go under.

It's actually not that different from GFS 12z, except the Atlantic low is no less than 30hPa deeper on GFS.

[Polar Maritime]

3 minutes ago, rotherhamsnowman said:

What would happen if that did that and is it a possibility??

It would prolong the cold spell, And would make it far more severe.. Yes it certainly a possibility.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Polar Maritime

[Howie]

You can already tell that the Atlantic is beginning to struggle on the models. Also re the mild sector, I definitely think it will still be snowfall as this air mass is very different to the last failed easterly in January 

[Timmytour]

The models continue to look good.  I wonder if we can get a run like in 1987 when the noon temperature at Gatwick  was below 0C for 12 days on the trot during which it was as low as  -7C on a couple of occasions?

Of course that was a month earlier so I doubt such a run is feasible this time.  Worth noting that in 1987, while January February and much of the first half of March were predominantly cold, there were periods where it became positively springlike.  I think such an ebb and flow of cold and warm air is possible this year now, and though we may not always stay on the cold side of it, especially in the south, I expect that there would be further shots at it for another month.  

[Froze were the Days]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Imagine being in a position where -5c is considered "mild" lol, anything falling out of the sky even in that "mild sector" would be snowfall. 

A little confusing...the above chart by Kold Weather shows rain in parts of the south east and not just on the coast.

[Tim Bland]

Just now, AWD said:

Isn't Monday evening 120hrs away?

36hrs into the cold spell. Starts sat eve and this is 36hrs later ...

[Griff]

Funny

Edit: I've gone wobble on this run

Edited February 3, 2021 by Griff

[chris55]

9 minutes ago, Notty said:

Disturbance in the flow next Tuesday

My head next week

Are we really seeing -12c 850s over Gloucester.......in the words of Victor Meldrew..."I don't believe it"..

[feb1991blizzard]

19 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

ecm@96 hrs.. no issues here ... that is an amber warning shot if I’ve ever seen 1.. @souther= eastern England!!!!!

 

 

 

Yes, the snow depth charts are not working since about t48 on the 0z, love to see both the 0z and 12z because the graphic i have just seen of the 0z would qualify for a red warning from what i can see, for Eastern half of the midlands, Yorkshire and NE IMO. snow for days, i think you know what graphic i am talking about but your not allowed to mention it on here, even though its from the 0z ECM