Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[ptow]

28 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Yes probably , the trend is for a more prolonged cold spell across all the models . Just this particular run brings in sw winds . 6 hours earlier the GFS run. was more prolonged

aah yes, I did see that the 00z was very good for prolonged with slider after slider.

[Frosty.]

Just browsing through the GEFS 6z perturbations, there’s support for the deep entrenched cold to persist throughout next week..so, don’t assume the operational is right about ending the very cold spell sooner!..this could be a prolonged wintery spell ahead of us!

[ptow]

16 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Everything from Sunday until Thursday.

 Very good. the comment I was replying to was regarding the further outlook I believe rather than that period

[Updated_Weather]

Real it in lads! Cold IS coming. Snow risk won’t be certain until much closer but exciting times ahead! We deserve this

[Djdazzle]

42 minutes ago, ptow said:

 

Am I missing something. the GFS06z has sw winds and postive 850's right up the country by next Thurs?

That's 8 days away! Not even worth worrying about!

[Froze were the Days]

7 minutes ago, Vadoseflame said:

Real it in lads! Cold IS coming. Snow risk won’t be certain until much closer but exciting times ahead! We deserve this

That's interesting that shows some of the coldest anomalies to the east and south east by the 9th...I wouldn't have thought that browsing through a few of the models and the 850 uppers. Marco P does like a ramp (as he's been doing all this winter).

[sheikhy]

Im expecting a better alignment of colder uppers and therefore colder air on the 12zs and an extension to the cold as well!!!

[Timmytour]

10 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

That's 8 days away! Not even worth worrying about!

   Struck me as funny.....because how much do we stress about cold showing in charts eight days away and convince ourselves its coming?

I do agree with you, it just reminded me of what us coldaholics do! 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

That's interesting that shows some of the coldest anomalies to the east and south east by the 9th...I wouldn't have thought that browsing through a few of the models and the 850 uppers. Marco P does like a ramp (as he's been doing all this winter).

Hopefully, seeing as most of the models agree on two things: heat building out of North Africa and a potential snow-fest over Central/Northern Europe, once we're done with the BFTE, a rapid switch into summer will occur... 1947 anyone?

[Gonzolio Martinez]

48 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

or the ECM easterly in 2012 that mysteriously vanished just before it was due

Is that 'That ECM' that people here refer to?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

20 minutes ago, Vadoseflame said:

Real it in lads! Cold IS coming. Snow risk won’t be certain until much closer but exciting times ahead! We deserve this

Looks like ‘Midlands North’ event

 

BFTP 

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Hopefully, seeing as most of the models agree on two things: heat building out of North Africa and a potential snow-fest over Central/Northern Europe, once we're done with the BFTE, a rapid switch into summer will occur... 1947 anyone?

I'd be surprised if the cold lasts much beyond next week...deep cold on our shores rarely lasts beyond 5 days-week, but apparently the SSW warmings continue and yes with such warmth over southern Europe and deep cold to the north there's going to be a big dumping somewhere! Bring it to East Anglia I say

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

06z Icon...pretty darn good at day 5

 

BFTP

[Scandinavian High.]

22 minutes ago, Vadoseflame said:

Real it in lads! Cold IS coming. Snow risk won’t be certain until much closer but exciting times ahead! We deserve this

It looks like shift south east with colder temperatures maybe one to watch models haven’t picked up yet

[Man With Beard]

35 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Latest BBC monthly says cold easterlies Russian Airmass staying through Mid Feb. Get the cold in first, and if often is hard to get rid of - #slidersville!! 

Recent ECM ensembles say a bit fat "no" to easterlies in mid Feb - very SWly at 550mb level on the latest clusters:

[kold weather]

18 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

That's interesting that shows some of the coldest anomalies to the east and south east by the 9th...I wouldn't have thought that browsing through a few of the models and the 850 uppers. Marco P does like a ramp (as he's been doing all this winter).

Its simple, he is using 00z GFS which shows the following:

the air is pretty uniform in terms of coldness, whilst its technically colder at 850hpa further north, the temperatures are slightly moderated by a much longer trek over water, whilst further south you have a flow that is actually technically sourced from Europe, which means less modification on that run = as cold despite milder 850hpa profile.

Also, remember the south is milder than the north on average. So if the average for the north is say 4C and 6C for the south and the north ends up at 1c and the south at 2c, guess which area looks colder on that map above??

PS- nice rain event for the SE on Monday on the 00z ECM fwiw....again why its important that the low is placed perfectly otherwise that will happen.

Edited February 3, 2021 by kold weather

[Atmogenic]

1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Unbelievable morning . I’m so excited . 
 

Across the board stunning . ECM, UKMO,GEM , GFS ,ICON. 
 

Im so excited  

hmm that's on my birthday, i may not have a big interest in snow but it would be nice to see then the dreaded boring stuff that has happened here all winter

[Frostbite1980]

5 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Recent ECM ensembles say a bit fat "no" to easterlies in mid Feb - very SWly at 550mb level on the latest clusters:

To be fair though these ensembles were showing a good chance of easterlies since the beginning of Jan and its only now its coming to fruition over a month later. These can flip as much as the op runs imo.

[Anthony Burden]

1 hour ago, ptow said:

 

Am I missing something. the GFS06z has sw winds and postive 850's right up the country by next Thurs?

Good Morning,

untill met office 30 day changes it’s forecast I would say you are missing something.

[birdman]

Should we expect Ice Days from this Easterly and how do the modelled temps fare compared with the previous 2018 BFTE? Are there any similarities? Thanks

[Cold Winter Night]

Mouthwatering output this morning.

It's great to see that GFS and GEFS finally gave up their resistance to bring in the cold, so now we have all the big models and ensembles agreeing on the initial arrival of cold within the more reliable timeframe. A failure of that happening is getting more and more unlikely now.
Let's get it within 24h-48h to see where it will snow, and how much might fall. Absolutely no need to panic about lack of snow in the output for your location yet.

Next thing to look for, at the edge of FI and beyond, is the longevity of this thing.
Most Operationals and ensembles show the increasing Atlantic influence, and I think they are right on that part.

However, will it drive away the cold?
Experience tells us that models usually push out the cold too fast. It is quite likely that the cold will offer more resistance than the models 'think' and that will rise opportunities for heights to build in the cold, heavy, and therefore sinking airmass.
If that happens, the incoming Atlantic will only work to reinforce those heights and therefore extend the cold spell.
I was delighted to see this happening in the GFS 0z.

This Scandi High development is a thing to look for over the coming days. A number of GEFS perturbations show variations of this too.

I am not convinced by the extended EPS output in that regard. Yes, things could work out as shown on the clusters, but I've seen that switch to cold in the plumes before.
Let's get that cold pattern in first and worry later.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So TBF we enter a period of nowcasting, Slight adjustments likely for weekend on against any big switch, and any small adjustments can have knock on effects down the line.  Been an enjoyable winter model watch thus far

 

BFTP

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Also, remember the south is milder than the north on average. So if the average for the north is say 4C and 6C for the south and the north ends up at 1c and the south at 2c, guess which area looks colder??

Oh yes agree, but at this time of the year south east max temps aren't much different to say further north i.e. Lincolnshire, maybe a degree difference...but yes agree with the sea track to the north with moderation.

Let's hope we just can make small incremental shifts of that low pressure to the east or south east by Sunday and then a lot of areas will be in the game than showing already .

[MJB]

13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Looks like ‘Midlands North’ event

 

BFTP 

I know and we miss out ..................gutted lol

[Bullseye]

10 minutes ago, birdman said:

Should we expect Ice Days from this Easterly and how do the modelled temps fare compared with the previous 2018 BFTE? Are there any similarities? Thanks

Not sure how this may play at part but how much of a difference is there between -10 TO -12 uppers showing for next week compared to -14 TO -16 like end of Feb/First days of March in beast from east 2018? Would that be low enough to have similar temperatures to BFTE?

Edited February 3, 2021 by Bullseye