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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?


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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    What you think about the models this morning blue?!good or bad to your taste?!

    There is a certain irony in that @sheikhy responded to that post from @bluearmy 🙂🙂🙂

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    Just a quick one, locations should now be displaying on posts if you're on a mobile. 🙂 

    News just in ! The Crunchy Snow and Ice Day Committee will be meeting at 7pm .  On the agenda . Depth of cold and likely duration . Frontal snow prospects . Chances of a prope

    We should all sit back and forget about snowfall, breakdown of cold spell and marvel at the N Hemisphere chart at only +48. I have lost count how many times I have drooled at +384 charts but even thos

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    3 minutes ago, Paul said:

    Just a quick one, locations should now be displaying on posts if you're on a mobile. 🙂 

    To confirm, yes, a useful addition, thank you. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Jarrow,Tyne & Wear
  • Weather Preferences: All extreme weather especially cold and snow!
  • Location: Jarrow,Tyne & Wear
    15 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

    good morning all, well as a rule of thumb for me is to look at the met office and bbc online forecasts to see their predictions and i have to say they are awful for cold and snow for here, chilly, sleety but not alot of snow, all very disappointing, then i come to hear to read everyones views and expected to read its all gone wrong overnight in the models, but i am glad to read we are still in with a chance of snow up and down the country so not to write of the chances yet. keep up the good work guys and gals.

    I think that the media organisations you mention will always hold back with their warnings until it is nailed on.Apps are also notoriously slower updating and imo a waste of time.

    The MO will be preparing their early warnings but we are talking late Saturday,into Sunday before the majority of the country start to feel the effects of the easterly and it associated risks as highlighted by all the major models now.

    I know your location well and I'd imagine once the cold comes later this weekend you shouldn't be concerned about a lack of snow showers coming along.

    Enjoy!

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    Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
    5 minutes ago, Paul said:

    Just a quick one, locations should now be displaying on posts if you're on a mobile. 🙂 

    Yep. A welcome update. Thanks!! Those saying they watch the BBC. Last weekend they forecast snow here, we had rain. Two weeks ago they forecast rain..we had SNOW!

    Enjoy the models but you won't know until the DAY!

    Edited by drgl
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    Posted
  • Location: Bromley, SE London (60m ASL)
  • Location: Bromley, SE London (60m ASL)

    The models are poor at picking up convection at this range especially. For anyone down south I think we know streamers can set up at quite short notice - get the cold in and the snow can follow etc etc 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    5 minutes ago, Paul said:

    Just a quick one, locations should now be displaying on posts if you're on a mobile. 🙂 

    They are indeed - cheers Paul!!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Great to see locations on my iPhone now! Makes it much easier to decipher people’s reactions. 

    still a way to go to persuade the GEFS of the longevity...but it’s a start! 

    3B3D1A26-B422-4817-B2EE-E4943848FD6E.jpeg

    Definitely an improvement from the doom of 48 hours ago 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
    19 minutes ago, Kreftysoton said:

    Loving the positivity this morning, most seem bullish about the cold spell. Can someone tell me why both BBC and Met have downgraded cold already for my part of the world? (Soton)  Sat - Mon was 3c max now showing 6s and nxt week up to 9/10?  Do they use different models than the ones discussed on here? 

    Those weather apps. are hopeless.

    Monday afternoon temps.

     

    132-580UK.thumb.GIF.8aa4fb327dd282ce85c0c5255a72aa58.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GFS, ECM & GEM ensembles all seem to show a decent cold spell in the south for 4-5days, I'm sure convection and a the odd polar low may well be be thrown in once we actually get to the business end of the weekend. Being very IMBY its still tricky to get a decent fall of snow in south Dorset from an easterly, really need frontal activity pushing up from the south with an easterly undercut. Looks like at the moment its only a relatively short cold spell down here with all the ensembles ushering in milder conditions from the 12th however sometime these spells do have a habit of extending themselves by a day or two.  

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    Posted
  • Location: North Norfolk
  • Location: North Norfolk
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Good agreement on the overall pattern for Western Europe but the all important detail for the UK still remains elusive . Blocking shifts more nw over time and a surface high to the ne helps to keep the jet further south.

    Northern areas members should be least stressed because of the high margin for error there . The stress factor rises as you head further south because the models are reluctant to take the coldest air sufficiently south to allow for a higher margin for error .

    Theres lots of snow potential , heavy snow showers and frontal snow but the latter aspect can’t be resolved yet.

    I 100% agree with this. The margin for marginal in the south remains! The placement of the low looks to me like it could go right to the wire with 50-100 miles making all the difference which is nothing in the scale of things. So, any of us in the south will have to live on our nerves for a few days yet. Some luck is required. Overall though, there is more cross model agreement this morning so that’s a positive.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    I think prospects have improved for southern members overnight . Looking at the ECM ensembles that’s better than last night . Overall a good start to the day for coldies throughout the UK .

     

    Have you disbanded your committee yet or are they still on standby Nick.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

    Latest Plume De Bilt. Control and Oper are no more or less in line with the rest of the members.

    Dewpoint and Winddirection.

    eps_pluim_dd_06260.png

    eps_pluim_td_06260.png

    Edited by sebastiaan1973
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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    I think prospects have improved for southern members overnight . Looking at the ECM ensembles that’s better than last night . Overall a good start to the day for coldies throughout the UK .

     

    A southerly correction is quite common and i'd not be surprised to see further adjustments south to totally negate marginality further for southern members

    eps_pluim_dd_06260.png

    eps_pluim_td_06260.png

    Edited by Speedbird
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    Message added by Paul,

    It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

    There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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