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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Speedbird Community Regular

Speedbird

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, DCee said:

I'd say it's not nationwide. Mainly for the midlands north, the south could well miss out again going on the ensembles...

Really ? Oh my days . . .

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Dimie10 Explorer

Dimie10

Posted
  • Location: Hesketh Bank, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summers, cold snowy Winters
  • Location: Hesketh Bank, Lancashire
Posted

I may not know anything about the models, but I read all the posts most days and all that seems to happen is  over excitement at cold events, that rarely if ever, seem to materialise!!

then everyone just seems to forget that the BOOM cold event that didn't occur existed and moves on to the next potential BOOM event that also then never materialises!!

Why has the BBC & Met office not mentioned this Beast from the East that never arrives???

Maybe its just a reflection on my own personal disappointment that I fall into the trap of getting excited over all your predictions, that as yet never become reality?!!

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Popular Post
Posted

There's an ignore function in your setting. You can put Dcee on it and then you don't have to see their clickbait posts. 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

I don't think its going to be that marginal on the south coast, Those 850 winds are coming from frigid air, even the ones that show a westerly direction right on the South coast circulate from very cold air, not Atlantic!

image.thumb.png.dcb163f09c3509c3577adeb25894517f.png

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Popular Post
Posted
3 minutes ago, DCee said:

I'd say it's not nationwide. Mainly for the midlands north, the south could well miss out again going on the ensembles...

Your prediction failed yesterday - so you’re trying again today!

The ECM op would be pretty much country wide.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Morning all, 

Especially anyone I miss, but thanks to the following for knocking weather websites offline globally... 

@ICE COLD

@Battleground Snow

@That ECM

@Roger J Smith

@supernova

@Speedbird

@Daniel*

Etc etc

Did we ever find out what the Parallel, Navgem and JMA had in store this morning? 

@sheikhy of course and @Frosty Winter

@Jon Snow

Edited by Griff
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sunnijim Seasoned

sunnijim

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, DCee said:

I'd say it's not nationwide. Mainly for the midlands north, the south could well miss out again going on the ensembles...

There is no sign of the South missing out on the initial injection of cold from the weekend,let's be clear on that..the esembles are clear here.

Needless to say there is greater Scatter for the South from the 11th as a new scenario is at play ( could certainly be a high reward event for the South)

Edited by sunnijim
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Polaris Aficionado

Polaris

Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn
Posted
15 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Absolutely breath taking runs! 

Dialled in now for anyone midlands North!

For the south much better than yesterday but still very close for comfort.

I hope things correct more south as those of you in the South East have been very unlucky all winter and id like to share some of the snow!

I’d say the SE along with Eastern Scotland is dialled in. The SE will get plummeted in these set ups. 

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Gustywind Enthusiast

Gustywind

Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
Posted
4 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:

Quick question, I keep hearing the term Midlands Northwards. The Midlands is a big place so wheres the line northwards. Warwick, Birmingham, Derby. Just trying to gauge where the line is? 

North of Hinckley

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:

Quick question, I keep hearing the term Midlands Northwards. The Midlands is a big place so wheres the line northwards. Warwick, Birmingham, Derby. Just trying to gauge where the line is? 

To early to predict. But the colder air is about where you suggested, so a continuation of the winter theme this year. The south relying on steamers and FI channel runners which may or may not happen in FI.

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Biggin Rising Star

Biggin

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Popular Post
Posted
1 minute ago, DCee said:

To early to predict. But the colder air is about where you suggested, so a continuation of the winter theme this year. The south relying on steamers and FI channel runners which may or may not happen in FI.

Please stop.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Your prediction failed yesterday - so you’re trying again today!

The ECM op would be pretty much country wide.

But the ECM has moved towards the GFS and the GFS has stuck with the initial cold for midlands north. So I'm right in my initial analysis thankyou.

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joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted

Still a fair way to go so feet on ground maybe?.

Great set no doubt this morning but I want to see this output down to 36 hrs for clarification.

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
Just now, DCee said:

To early to predict. But the colder air is about where you suggested, so a continuation of the winter theme this year. The south relying on steamers and FI channel runners which may or may not happen in FI.

It's earlier enough for it to appear on the BEEB and how can it possibly be a continuation of the winter theme , we haven't had Easterlies , this is a brand new chapter my friend , turn the page and read ..................it's a best seller 

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
Just now, Polaris said:

I’d say the SE along with Eastern Scotland is dialled in. The SE will get plummeted in these set ups. 

Some days. Other days very high risk for very high reward. I would say the midlands northwards is far enough north to guarentee at least 3 if not 4 days of cold.

The South East unfortunately is dangerously close to the proximity of low pressure systems and mild air although i hope the South East stays on the right side

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supernova Community Regular

supernova

Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
Posted (edited)

Crikey, the naysayers are out in force this morning. For anyone in the south worried about the upcoming cold spell....yes things could all look very different on the models tomorrow.

They could be colder!!!

Ha ha ha ha. 
 

PS I can’t wait for @nick sussex to post later....he’ll be convening a full on COBRA meeting. And when do we start debating 
mesoscale and Polar lows?

Edited by supernova
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sunnijim Seasoned

sunnijim

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, DCee said:

But the ECM has moved towards the GFS and the GFS has stuck with the initial cold for midlands north. So I'm right in my initial analysis thankyou.

You are not correct.

I went on a narow boat holiday a few years ago.

They gave a gadget called a 'bilge pump' on board.

Not sure why it came to mind this morning..

Edited by sunnijim
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DJ Fart Aficionado

DJ Fart

Posted
  • Location: Great Horkesley, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Great Horkesley, Essex
Posted
14 minutes ago, DCee said:

I'd say it's not nationwide. Mainly for the midlands north, the south could well miss out again going on the ensembles...

God, you're a real ray of sunshine, aren't you? You just trolling for responses? 

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Polaris Aficionado

Polaris

Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn
Posted
2 minutes ago, supernova said:

Crikey, the naysayers are out in force this morning. For anyone in the south worried about the upcoming cold spell....yes things could all look very different on the models tomorrow.

They could be colder!!!

Ha ha ha ha. 
 

It’s bizarre right!

With charts from the Latest UKM/ECM if there’s anywhere in England I would want to be in E/SE England in those set ups currently modelled 

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
2 minutes ago, DCee said:

But the ECM has moved towards the GFS and the GFS has stuck with the initial cold for midlands north. So I'm right in my initial analysis thankyou.

Yes you are correct , no cold over my house eh?

image.thumb.png.d8ccfcad65ff878599b1e504452b616d.png

That's this Sunday 

image.thumb.png.06ad84160e7df8a9069020f14a86dfba.png

Early hours of Monday -10 850's

image.thumb.png.665441bda5f51054cec4e379dff05ec1.png

Tuesday 

The 10cm of snow we had here two weeks back was in -5 850's , don't get so fixated with -10's 

 

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John88B Community Regular

John88B

Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
Posted

Some of the negativity on here this morning is astounding. The models are showing a cold/very cold spell coming up, south included. 

For lovers of cold there's plenty of reasons to be cheerful and nothing to be negative about. 

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Chertseystreamer79 Enthusiast

Chertseystreamer79

Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
Posted
10 minutes ago, Dimie10 said:

I may not know anything about the models, but I read all the posts most days and all that seems to happen is  over excitement at cold events, that rarely if ever, seem to materialise!!

then everyone just seems to forget that the BOOM cold event that didn't occur existed and moves on to the next potential BOOM event that also then never materialises!!

Why has the BBC & Met office not mentioned this Beast from the East that never arrives???

Maybe its just a reflection on my own personal disappointment that I fall into the trap of getting excited over all your predictions, that as yet never become reality?!!

You just explained why we are all here....! Your awakening to winter model addiction!

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