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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?


Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Just now, Summerstorm said:

Ah didn't look at that at first look it looked poor but we still have cold entrenched over us. 

If we can get the high to push further north then maybe we can start to drag that cold pool in. 

As you wish.

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Posted
  • Location: Market Rasen
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Fog Thunderstorms
  • Location: Market Rasen

Great models this morning we now wait for the ECM to deliver the goods ! Surely this can’t go wrong now surely ?!

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
9 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

As you wish.

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Ooh the scenes in here if that came off. Just a proper Greenie High with some polar lows dropping down from the north to go and then we've had a bit of everything right... ?‍♂️ 

Not that I'm asking for too much of course 

Edited by Summerstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
8 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Day 5 charts

GFS

image.thumb.png.1bc719ca3ea9c0563c588d07c0fd1c75.png
 

Cold with easterly winds through the U.K.

UKMO

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Slightly deeper with that feature to the east of us so many larger amounts of precipitation around on this one.

GEM

image.thumb.png.efc0867bda12f428e4c8441d939d55fe.png
 

Similar, both the UKMO and GEM cleanly clear the lowest heights away from the south east so everyone is in that cold easterly feed.

There does appear to be a trend that our cold spell may take a different path next week, all three want to develop and maintain weaker heights towards Scandinavia and areas west of this as the main Arctic high moves away. This is instead of the deeper cyclonic flows suggested earlier on that had lower thicknesses.

Perhaps MJO influence coming through here?

all three want to develop and maintain weaker heights towards Scandinavia and areas west of this as the main Arctic high

Edited by Battleground Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

We get northern blocking on the gfs run from T72 right the way through to the end. Are the models sniffing out the possibility of scandi heights. If so with our cold pool in situ the initial easterly this weekend and early next week could just be an appetiser. The country could literally get ft of snow or metres in drifts. 

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Thats the first time I've seen the mean at such a range show over a cm down here and so many snow spikes clustered above that, surely will be much more further north, mean around -6.5/-7 but a tifht clustering colder including the GFS op

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Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
15 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Thats the first time I've seen the mean at such a range show over a cm down here and summary snow spikes clustered above that, surely will be much more further north, mean around -6.5/-7 but a tifht clustering colder including the GFS op

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Worth bearing in mind that a lot of shower activity or possibly more organised bands will not be factored in until earliest 24 hours prior.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Crikey the GFS 00z goes full Meto update on us and then some.

Fascinating model watching.

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Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
53 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

We get northern blocking on the gfs run from T72 right the way through to the end. Are the models sniffing out the possibility of scandi heights. If so with our cold pool in situ the initial easterly this weekend and early next week could just be an appetiser. The country could literally get ft of snow or metres in drifts. 

That’s what mettoffice long range update suggest cold spell  intensifying

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Anyone know which model Two Outlook use its gone full circle from a snow fest to nothing yesterday and now several days of snow even here. I'm thinking GFS considering the chopping and changing lately unless it's a blend?

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Monday lunchtime weather, 850s and Dew points!! Nice

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And max temps (ice days ) - don’t worry about what the apps are saying, it’s a big Freeze that’s on its way!! 

835BF163-923A-4FA6-8CFA-D07F850C9180.gif

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Worth noting the GEM op was a slight cold outlier in the main but the main clustering of cold was down to around -10c in the SE still noteworthy 

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Posted
  • Location: Market Rasen
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Fog Thunderstorms
  • Location: Market Rasen

Got to say hats off to the UKMO model it has remained consistent through the whole thing while other models chopped and changed !

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