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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?


Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Helen Willetts very bullish about cold persisting until the end of the week after this weekend.. 

    For the normally Conservative BBC the graphics Sunday looked VERY snowy. 

    As an exciting period of model watching I can remember and it certainly has helped during such a terrible time ...

     

    However this event will eventually turn out, this whole week will long be remembered in future winter threads, I think.

    Either as one of the biggest fails like That ECM, or as a memorable cold spell/snow event.

    A point of reference for sure, whenever EC or GFS shows wintry setups.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    GEFS 18z plots...... I’ll leave these here 🤘✊👊👊.. rest well.. Gunnight 👍

    874A9183-5F10-4F03-95A9-27C94EEAA950.png

    571A8D2A-4217-4085-892A-72A0ED3D326A.png

    388945FF-E327-49EB-9A7A-15A9620CBFAC.png

    AD9BDD79-42FB-48AB-9003-2F80E9788CED.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    BAM,[email protected]😏

    gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.0777888f37373ae0754687b2bc5f7718.pnggensnh-0-0-384.thumb.png.f4ef8f574b90cd5878bd9346af7ac0e9.png

    it was at the bottom of the pack though but with some support.

    graphe3_10000_267_32___.thumb.png.dd43365cc02587d0bd2eadb9c5667b28.png

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Market Rasen
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Fog Thunderstorms
  • Location: Market Rasen

    To something that looked nailed on a few days ago it’s now a question of will it be a decent cold spell with snow or won’t it ? We will know by Thursday if we will get anything decent !

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    21 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

    To something that looked nailed on a few days ago it’s now a question of will it be a decent cold spell with snow or won’t it ? We will know by Thursday if we will get anything decent !

    Keep saying the same message, for NE Scotland, there is much less margin for error regarding the placement of the low because of how close they are to the cold air wrapping around on the northern flank, for those in the SE especially, the margin for error is much smaller and one subtle switch in wind direction could make a massive difference. 

    There is going to be easterly winds but just how far south and east that low pressure gets will determine just how much of the UK gets into the easterly flow. Even if the low sticks around closer to the UK there will the classic case of high risk high reward of persistent snow from a frontal system but those in the SE risk missing out hence(and rightly and understandably) the hope the GFS is a bit wrong in its placement of the low. Plus the low being more in the continent means the colder air is further south and west so increases the chances the cold will last longer. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NE London
  • Location: NE London

    Once the low clears southwards from the UK, if the heights to the north act as a more intense block against the spanish low moving north and following that cause the atlantic lows later in to next week to slide, these special charts are about to get a whole lot more special. Thats a big IF, but strikes me to be within the realm of possibility.
    Probably the most interesting model watching i've ever taken part in.

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    2 hours ago, Sully79 said:

    Guys you’re all legends and play a pivotal part in this forum I’ve been on here for years but never posted because I trust in what you say I’m a winter weather chaser and I love it just wish I could drive up to Scotland for a week like I normally do for my snow fix but can’t right now gutted 

    I've just had to move my holiday in the Cairngorms etc again from the thundersnow week (gutted I missed that) in December to March, and now again to early December this year I can bet my bottom dollar it will be mild then 🤣

     

    Funny enough I was there in  winter 2009-10 last and there was more snow in SE England back home than up in Aviemore and Inverness etc you couldn't make it up! It must be me 😂

     

    Looking at the models the Cairngorms will be buried in no time with the amount that's already fallen up there, I can't wait to finally get back there, its sods law its this year as others said the Scottish ski resorts must be feeling sick having to stay shut!

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Better angle of winds on the Icon with lower heights over Scandi. Stronger heights north.

    Edited by Snowman.
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Icon has developed the low off the coast of East Anglia. 

    image.thumb.png.ba7503c7b531bbadd88793787565dedb.png image.thumb.png.ad9826144b88c4aecb9aa7c6716ae8ef.png

    Another 100 miles SE and its a deep convective for most of the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Icon 144.

    image.thumb.png.003370dbe2c5232bd5e3d8ae023c1fb8.pngimage.thumb.png.b40833618666d8609af8d107610ea898.png 

    Not bad cold more of a ESE.

    It attempts to eject a low at 129. If this was more developed it would run along the channel hopefully with precip and solidify the colder direct E/NE feed.

    P24 is the example I will use (theres lots that do it but this matched the Icon more)

    image.thumb.png.0a13a20ead9b2eefedd2bbf82d50f51d.pngimage.thumb.png.040352b17749617db2df8f6387e419bd.pngimage.thumb.png.58768b213bbab4dd2a053571b8dc53ff.png

    Something to watch out for during the times ahead.

     

    Edited by Snowman.
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Icon tries a channel low but doesn't make it through, would bring some snow but would turn to rain backend.

    More elongation as well as further eastwards movement would be good. Would keep the snow snow and as it clears east would keep the cold in. But that is way over the rainbow atm.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    20 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

    Icon 144.

    image.thumb.png.003370dbe2c5232bd5e3d8ae023c1fb8.pngimage.thumb.png.b40833618666d8609af8d107610ea898.png 

    Not bad cold more of a ESE.

    It attempts to eject a low at 129. If this was more developed it would run along the channel hopefully with precip and solidify the colder direct E/NE feed.

    P24 is the example I will use (theres lots that do it but this matched the Icon more)

    image.thumb.png.0a13a20ead9b2eefedd2bbf82d50f51d.pngimage.thumb.png.040352b17749617db2df8f6387e419bd.pngimage.thumb.png.58768b213bbab4dd2a053571b8dc53ff.png

    Something to watch out for during the times ahead.

     

    Some of the SW contingent would be happy with this, those in the likes of South Devon praying for the ESE flow to give them a channel streamer in my experience places close to and around Suffolk as well as the NE also do well with the slightly longer sea track than for instance South Essex/Kent.

    A variation of a theme, (An element from an easterly vector ) which is making interesting model watching 

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

    I think its going to be a good run this easterly established by Saturday. Bringing the cold in earlier? Let's hope this trend continues. 

    gfsnh-0-78.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Lift off.

    image.thumb.png.966021711a46308aa22627eef5f6d83d.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

    I think its going to be a good run this easterly established by Saturday. Bringing the cold in earlier? Let's hope this trend continues. 

    gfsnh-0-78.png

    Past 3 runs have brought forward the time slightly.

    As @TEITS has been saying this whole time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Snowy sunday..

    image.thumb.png.fa91958160e31f69c7c1404d869fecc7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Beautiful nationwide Easterlies, just need them 850s lower further south so the snowline covers England as well, hopefully it will do in the coming frames 🙏🤞

    Screenshot_20210203-035800_Samsung Internet.jpg

    gfs-0-96.png

    Edited by Kentspur
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