Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Eskimo]

This pattern should have us locked in for quite some time.

[Johnp]

At 132 it still wants to fart around with the low by bringing it back west again!

[FreezingFog]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Hopefully everyone's happy now and we can get back to normal on here

Frightened to post sometimes lol

Everyone being happy would not be the norm lol. I still feel like I need to get to Thursday morning unscathed. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by FreezingFog

[chionomaniac]

If the Atlantic low engages properly then we are close to boom scenario.

[Mike Poole]

GFS T126:

That low is still there in the SE, but the uppers are good for snow anyway.  So - snow.  Much improved this run.  Until we see the low out of the way we won’t get the long draw easterly into the south.  On the plus, I think the snow is in earlier than other recent runs. 

But the main point is the GFS has dropped the nightmare solution that cut off the whole of the south from the cold.

[Matt H]

Good evening to everyone that said the cold spell potential was over!

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

This pattern should have us locked in for quite some time.

No, I think we need higher pressure over Scandinavia (proper greens and yellows) for us to get locked in. 

[sheikhy]

Expect further southward correction my peeps!!!might even see a sinking high instead

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, danm said:

Much better GFS. Let’s hope it carries on with these improvements in the morning!

 

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

At 132 it still wants to fart around with the low by bringing it back west again!

 

Just now, Mike Poole said:

GFS T126:

That low is still there in the SE, but the uppers are good for snow anyway.  So - snow.  Much improved this run.  Until we see the low out of the way we won’t get the long draw easterly into the south.  On the plus, I think the snow is in earlier than other recent runs. 

But the main point is the GFS has dropped the nightmare solution that cut off the whole of the south from the cold.

Steps in the right direction, baby steps, but agreed should this continue...

At least it's stopped the rot, FI on the GFS is but a sneeze away! 

[sheikhy]

Bonkers run!!!!

[Scandinavian High.]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T126:

That low is still there in the SE, but the uppers are good for snow anyway.  So - snow.  Much improved this run.  Until we see the low out of the way we won’t get the long draw easterly into the south.  On the plus, I think the snow is in earlier than other recent runs. 

But the main point is the GFS has dropped the nightmare solution that cut off the whole of the south from the cold.

I hope this trend continues .

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

No, I think we need higher pressure over Scandinavia (proper greens and yellows) for us to get locked in. 

Not necessarily, the Greenland high will do its job at keeping lows further south. 

[Jason M]

Nice end to the day. Be interesting to see the GEFS in a bit as surely there must be some immense charts amongst them. 

 

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

If the Atlantic low engages properly then we are close to boom scenario.

Its getting closer thats for sure.

Regardless of whether the south gets into the true easterly, or whether we end up in the ECM solution, as long as we can get into the cold properly then the deck is stacked towards a snow event if any LP does come up from the SW.

Evolving into a really great run despite some starting risks with that LP coming up from Iberia.

[nick sussex]

Good to see this improvement but it also shows the very small margins involved .

Here there’s a delay to the phasing and this is why it’s a forecasting nightmare for areas away from the north .

 

[Snowman.]

Hope the SE adjustments continue, not just because I want snow but it will increase the longevity of it too. And simple maths is the longer it stays cold the more days we all get to see the good stuff.

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Expect further southward correction my peeps!!!might even see a sinking high instead

You can say that again! This is one of the longest fetch easterlies I’ve ever seen. Can we be greedy and hope for another slight shift south tomorrow

[Griff]

I take it back, big steps

[Man With Beard]

This run is best described as ... indecisive! First the cold arrives. Then it's pushed back a bit. Then the cold returns. By T156 I have no idea what's coming next.

[ancientsolar]

We better start putting the icecubes in the atlantic.. just to make sure!

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run T156:

Think I’m just going to listen to music, drink beer and watch this beauty unfold...

Edited February 2, 2021 by Mike Poole
Corrected one chart

[nick sussex]

The surface high is appearing now to the ne . This needs to verify as the main block has now moved further to the nw and you need that to keep the forcing on the jet over Western Europe .

[TEITS]

Just a quickie and shall explain later but the low at +48 is too far NW by the 18Z GFS. Much more likely to be further SE. This is a positive because it would allow the E,ly to arrive earlier.

 

[Candice Bartley]

6 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Good evening to everyone that said the cold spell potential was over!

My head was beginning to feel rather frazzled but just look at that chart well worth the ups and downs of today even if it doesn't happen 

[topo]

This is writing history guys.. Enjoy it..

Truly epic event for many