Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[snowice]

Its 200 miles further south all ready.

[Tom Jarvis]

Just need the uppers slightly colder for this to be finally a good event for the southeast 

[kold weather]

96hrs the Lp now over France will move northwards around the remains of the UK low.

So VERY different still from all other models.

It maybe better, but its still a poor evolution that will mean the south is going to struggle unless the low is way to the east. I'd much perfer the other models evolution!

Colder run for the Midlands though for sure!

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by kold weather

[Tim Bland]

Ooosh ️

[sheikhy]

You beaauuutyyyy gfs!!!finally!!get in!!

[chionomaniac]

Just now, kold weather said:

96hrs the Lp now over France will move northwards around the remains of the UK low.

So VERY different still from all other models.

It maybe better, but its still a poor evolution that will mean the south is going to struggle unless the low is way to the east.

Colder run for the Midlands though for sure!

 

I like to think that the GFS pendulum swing, is swinging a bit less this run.  Slowly slowly

[Snowman.]

In Snowman's last dying breath after dying of shock from an actual good GFS.

"Boom"

[Climate Man]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

96hrs the Lp now over France will move northwards around the remains of the UK low.

So VERY different still from all other models.

It maybe better, but its still a poor evolution that will mean the south is going to struggle unless the low is way to the east.

Colder run for the Midlands though for sure!

 

Arguably best of the big 3. Famous M4 Northward.

[MJB]

Snow across the UK as per what the Beeb have just shown funnily enough 

[Battleground Snow]

GFS at 114!

 

[Matt H]

A decent GFS run. FINALLY!

[kold weather]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

I like to think that the GFS pendulum swing, is swinging a bit less this run.  Slowly slowly

Its good to see the GFS find its way to the same location despite missing the turnoff several times!

Much better run, I'd just like to see it actually agree with the broad evolution of the other models for confidence sake!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

That cold block to the North saying to the African plume...

[Tim Bland]

5 hours ago, DCee said:

Midlands north event by the look of things, 12z is continuing the new trend away from the cold easterly (more for the south as things stand).

Lots of rain following behind with a an awful SW flow.

I expect the ECM and UKMO will follow the GFS soon. 

Looking forward to your latest thoughts

[Daniel*]

What a relief you useless American model, you got there in end didn’t you? 

[danm]

Much better GFS. Let’s hope it carries on with these improvements in the morning!

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

30 hours ago we were drooling over this 12z run from GFS  (for Sunday evening) and what it subsequently delivered

Thereafter things were not so good....starting with a pub run which rudely interrupted the delight being shown over a generally excellent 12z suite.....

Thereafter a further three runs underwhelmed.....

 

The pub run turned it round last night......it needs to turn it round again, but this time in favour of something that has us smiling at its outcome!

I think we got closest to yesterday's 12z.....

 

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs 18z nationwide snow event 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

miles better!

[MJB]

A few hours of snow on Sunday if the 18z verifies 

 

with drifting snow 

 

[winterof79]

Hopefully everyone's happy now and we can get back to normal on here

Frightened to post sometimes lol

[kold weather]

Just now, danm said:

Much better GFS. Let’s hope it carries on with these improvements in the morning!

My word though what a dicey evolution to get there though!

Especially as the evolution is still the same as the 12z GFS. Its just the UK low just hangs on long enough to force the Iberian low far east enough to pull in a ENE airflow.

The good news I suppose is the other models take path A, the GFS goes down B and C but they both find themselves at point D in the end.

Will be a very good run from 120hrs onwards!

[WorldExplore]

Bet someones will still be nit picking out 'Marginal' 

[Snowman31]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

miles better!

Literally around 200 miles better 

[sheikhy]

Gfs you useless peace of thing!!!why make things hard for yourself!!!just join with the rest of them without being stubborn