Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Intruguing bearing in mind we've an easterly and all the snow ends up in Wales

The ICON is frankly useless at convection, never understood why it is so very bad with it, but there you go!

[Mike Poole]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

I wonder who can resist posting til day 4/5 comes up lol.  May stop the confusion often generated on here with these scenarios.  

I can’t!

[goosey007]

3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Intruguing bearing in mind we've an easterly and all the snow ends up in Wales

Jff Kentspur .....seen so many this winter......i will say it's the closest yet at day 7

Edited February 2, 2021 by goosey007

[georgiedre]

10 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Looked closely at ECM individual ensembles for an underlying trend at D5 and D6, but I couldn't really separate between runs that bring a clean easterly, runs that scupper the easterly for southern areas through low pressure of the SE coast, and runs that were a bit of both. 

My gut feeling is that the clean easterly has gone for the south - once disturbances are picked up D4/D5, they rarely correct back to the clean version. But the heavy frontal snow option, that's still well on the cards. I see similarities with Feb 2009 here where many got heavy snow but the extreme SE got rain - it was touch and go until T0.

Northerners though, put your feet up, relax, and count up the snow falling/snow laying days. You'll need plenty of ink!

North East not the North West.  Cant see much for the nw

[Timmytour]

Not seeing too much difference so far, especially in movement southwards, but GFS might have the Iberian low a little weaker which could help going forward....

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z T66 v 12z T72:

Iberian low is weaker, just like ICON at this point.  This one is going to be better, I think.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

Not seeing too much difference so far, especially in movement southwards, but GFS might have the Iberian low a little weaker which could help going forward....

Yeah but its still stronger and more progressive than any other model with the Iberian low...and thats within 72hrs now.

I suspect the 00z models will probably fall one side or the other, it can't get much closer in and still be this level of disagreement over that sort of feature.

[feb1991blizzard]

Better clearance already at 72 - stunner coming up here.

[MJB]

Don't think we will see any major backtrack on this run , looks at tad further NW to me 

[weirpig]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Better clearance already at 72 - stunner coming up here.

Yep low gone 

[sheikhy]

Hmmm is it me or are we about to see the best run of the day from the gfs?!!

[MJB]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Better clearance already at 72 - stunner coming up here.

LOL the opposite of what I have said .................virtual pint to the winner lol

[NewEra21]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Better clearance already at 72 - stunner coming up here.

 

Just now, MJB said:

Don't think we will see any major backtrack on this run , looks at tad further NW to me 

Confused.com

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs could be a boom

[Snowman.]

Feeling this GFS, just in my bones got this feeling.

 

[MJB]

Just now, NewEra21 said:

 

Confused.com

It's funny how people ( me especially ) have a different view on a chart 

[chionomaniac]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I can’t!

Ok lol me neither, slightly better profile over uk and importantly lower heights more west over Scandinavia.

[Tim Bland]

Touch further south east at t84 sorry chino

[Djdazzle]

18z low pressure 1cm further south . . .

Come on, let it come out!

[kold weather]

GFS looks a little better at the moment.

BUT again the GFS is STILL showing a different evolution across the W.Europe compared with all other models.

It still has the Iberian low being more dominant whilst all other models shear it to the NE and the UK low takes over.

Please can we get some agreement within he next few runs!

As long as the Iberian low takes over, the south will big time struggle...

Edited February 2, 2021 by kold weather

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

18z low pressure 1cm further south . . .

Come on, let it come out!

1cm on my phone screen is all the south east needs to be in the game

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

18z low pressure 1cm further south . . .

Come on, let it come out!

I presume you mean on the computer screen not literally!  

[NewEra21]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

It's funny how people ( me especially ) have a different view on a chart 

I can't judge anyones views mate, I'm a novice at best

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

I presume you mean on the computer screen not literally!  

I was being a tad sarcastic!

[chionomaniac]

Scandinavia output so much better by day 4. Marches the lower heights further west.