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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?


Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
    2 hours ago, pages said:

    Do the met office see ECM before it rolls out to public? Or do we think their latest update is just from what mogreps show?

     

    Hi I would imagine Exeter ie Glosea 5  has an influence along with various other options.

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    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
    2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

    All excellent points - however a poster's location does not show when browsing the forum on mobiles. Would be good if this could be added to the mobile view.

    turn screen to landscape

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    Posted
  • Location: Great yarmouth/ gorleston
  • Location: Great yarmouth/ gorleston

    Apologies if this is wrong place to ask but as a newbie can someone explain to me what the ecm mean., means please? How is it different from the ecm?, thanks 

    Edited by eddie1
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    Posted
  • Location: Witney, West Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey and mild!
  • Location: Witney, West Oxfordshire
    5 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

    All excellent points - however a poster's location does not show when browsing the forum on mobiles. Would be good if this could be added to the mobile view.

    I can see your location on my android mobile? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
    2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

    All excellent points - however a poster's location does not show when browsing the forum on mobiles. Would be good if this could be added to the mobile view.

    Yep, a complete pain in the ass checking the location on your phone and opening up page after page.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    18 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

    That’s good news thanks for sharing maybe might stop some banging on every two minutes about south east not get any snow.

    Just a reminder that only 18 out of 51 have snow for the SE on the ECM ensembles out to 12z Monday...somewhere in the 35-40% ballpark. More are dry than not....

    So yes, the mean is better on the ECM on face value, but its hiding alot of less impressive runs as well.

    However it would be fair to say that nearly all the models have a really substantial snow spell further north tonight, and there is now really strong agreement for this as well. I expect early warnings to come out soon for Saturday on the strength of agreement.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    10 minutes ago, BARRY said:

    Why are we talking about the breakdown when we have not got the cold yet

     

    Because people do, it's about what the models are showing, not whether it's going to be build a snowman in Knotying Snodsbury on Monday afternoon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
    Just now, birdman said:

    I can see your location on my android mobile? 

    Not on this iphone I can’t.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    Just now, steveinsussex said:

    turn screen to landscape

    Good tip - just tried it though (iPhone IOS 14) and it doesn't work.

     

    Just now, birdman said:

    I can see your location on my android mobile? 

    Must be an IOS thing.

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    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
    Just now, Paul_1978 said:

    Good tip - just tried it though (iPhone IOS 14) and it doesn't work.

     

    Must be an IOS thing.

    I can on mine using safari on IOS 14

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    Posted
  • Location: Ayr
  • Location: Ayr
    4 minutes ago, eddie1 said:

    Apologies if this is wrong place to ask but as a newbie can someone explain to me what the ecm mean., means please? How is it different from the ecm?, thanks 

    The ECM is the main run, the mean is the average basically of all 51 ensemble member runs. It basically gives an idea of the average overall pattern. check out the learning and research part on netweather. A lot of useful stuff on there 

    Edited by snowlessayr
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    Posted
  • Location: North Norfolk
  • Location: North Norfolk

    Whilst the ECM mean may still look ok, I’m more concerned that the op and control are beginning to head  in a direction akin to the gfs in the shorter timeframe.  So, is the ECM beginning to pick up the same signal as the GfS now?  I have to say it’s always a bit worrying when the op starts to diverge from other members.  In theory, they should be more accurate in the shorter timeframe?  I guess GFS and ECM may beginning to converge. Unfortunately, I fear that for the southern half of the country, that may just be a diluted option which is disappointing and delivers little.  Here where I live, I’ve been willing for some of the previous systems which have given snow to the midlands/north to edge further north and east.  This time I’m willing this low pressure to move south and east!

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Great yarmouth/ gorleston
  • Location: Great yarmouth/ gorleston
    Just now, snowlessayr said:

    The ECM is the main run, the mean is the average basically of all 51 runs. It basically gives an idea of the average overall pattern. check out the learning and research part on netweather. A lot of useful stuff on there 

    Thank you 

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    Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
    5 minutes ago, matty40s said:

    Because people do, it's about what the models are showing, not whether it's going to be build a snowman in Knotying Snodsbury on Monday afternoon.

    Knotying snodsbury sounds a good place to build a snowman 😅

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    Posted
  • Location: Witney, West Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey and mild!
  • Location: Witney, West Oxfordshire
    6 minutes ago, Ramp said:

    Not on this iphone I can’t.

    Have you tried the option to open the desktop site? Chrome browser you can. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Evening all little late giving my thoughts on the charts this evening,I will keep it short and to the point,

    northern blocking ready to push south from 144 hrs bringing mostly dry very cold air in from the north east.

    severe frosts on the agenda.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    1 hour ago, Ultima Thule said:

    How respected is the UKV?  IS it used by the Met O for example?  Educate me.

    Lets just say it was saying Wales would stay dry last Sunday until the morning when it backtracked and followed all other models. It snowed for the whole day.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    5 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Aprege out to 114hrs 

    ADF47D75-D908-4A1B-9743-AD29F6BC2F5B.png

    350BEB99-52AB-4058-861B-CD0B2ED2B3CB.png

    That’s got the perciptation way further south and uppers look much colder..

    is acreage any good

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

    Did the 12Z GFS P come out in the end? 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, Frostbite1980 said:

    Did the 12Z GFS P come out in the end? 

    no, despite how many times I keep hitting F5 - the nomad sever was down earlier, back up now but no charts yet.

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