Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Paul said:

Steady as she goes on the UKV 15z, following a very similar theme to the 3z this morning, bringing deep cold virtually countrywide on Sunday, along with a good rash of snow showers from the east.

 

LP just a little further east but that does allow for more snow showers across East Anglia and E.Midlands.

Looks reasonable to me, with more snow showers further NE you go. Less to the south of the LP core though as the LP is further east, it is a reduced issue.

[Biggin]

47 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah its cold enough on the ECM.

Bigger problem is it will be much drier for the south on this run, probably south of the Wash-Liverpool there'd be very little snowfall if the 12z ECM is right. Probably will be some, but its going to be modest at best.

PS - this is not just me 'looking at the models, etc' - this is also based on experience of convection in winter months around these types of set-ups and how difficult it is to get any meaningful convection with a onshore flow...unless we do manage to get  snapfire trough.front forming, which is unlikely given the orientation of the axis of the LP gyre coming across from the SW.

I think possible  thames and wash streamers need to be taken into consideration with the wind in that direction ?

[Ultima Thule]

3 minutes ago, Paul said:

Steady as she goes on the UKV 15z, following a very similar theme to the 3z this morning, bringing deep cold virtually countrywide on Sunday, along with a good rash of snow showers from the east.

 

How respected is the UKV?  IS it used by the Met O for example?  Educate me.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Ultima Thule said:

How respected is the UKV?  IS it used by the Met O for example?  Educate me.

Very good in particular in close range, say 48hrs.

Met office does indeed use it.

PS - its still not great for those who are suffering from no snow still in the south, especially in the SE closer to the LP core so more of a due north flow.

Edited February 2, 2021 by kold weather

[Steady Easterly]

5 minutes ago, Paul said:

Steady as she goes on the UKV 15z, following a very similar theme to the 3z this morning, bringing deep cold virtually countrywide on Sunday, along with a good rash of snow showers from the east.

 

Hi, is that extrapolated from raw ukmo? or is it an independent model?  thanks.

[DJ Fart]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

and... don’t  leave us hanging........,:)

Ha ha! Probably a bit off topic...wonder if I can share privately... 

[Ultima Thule]

Just now, kold weather said:

Very good in particular in close range, say 48hrs.

Met office does indeed use it.

So, this offers some hope then that the ECM and GFS could be wrong on Sundays low? Yeah or neah?

[danm]

2 minutes ago, James Maidstone said:

I may be a novice amateur when it comes to meteorology, but from what I can see there are two salient points

• As they say "Get the cold in first and then worry about everything else -that now seems fairly likely for the vast majority of the country?
• Worry about the exact position of the low at 96/120/144 and how it affects precipitation streams is unnecessary detail at this stage, since the position of the low which is currently being modeled for Sunday/Monday is not where it will actually be and thus the precipitation charts are not worth worrying about at this stage?  You have got to be in it to win it and we are getting closer to being in it?

I hope I am not barking up the wrong tree with the above points?

Bang on. 

All of the microscopic analysis of the latest ECM run is all very interesting, but somewhat academic at this range. The exact positioning of the long wave pattern will change between now and Sunday, so it just seems a waste of energy to go so deep into that kind of analysis. 

The key has always been to look at the overall trends at this range, and then nail down the exact positioning when we get to within 2/3 days. Even then, convection, troughs, etc are poorly modelled until within 12-24hrs. 

[DJ Fart]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

and... don’t  leave us hanging........,:)

You have PM

[Kentspur]

8 minutes ago, Biggin said:

I think possible  thames and wash streamers need to be taken into consideration with the wind in that direction ?

Need a more ENE element to the flow, not a NE for the Thames streamer set up mate, could be good for East Kent or Norfolk more likely, maybe as long as the lows not too close 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Kentspur

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Dj fart said:

Ha ha! Probably a bit off topic...wonder if I can share privately... 

Just good or bad for deep cold?

[Chesil View]

4 minutes ago, Dj fart said:

Ha ha! Probably a bit off topic...wonder if I can share privately... 

You don't have to share the image just say what it shows.

[Paul]

6 minutes ago, Ultima Thule said:

How respected is the UKV?  IS it used by the Met O for example?  Educate me.

It's their main hi-res deterministic model, run at 1.5km 

 

Numerical weather prediction models

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The Unified Model is run operationally in a number of configurations for weather forecasting at the Met Office.

 

[Barking_Mad]

If the snowline is north/ne then there's also some pretty strong winds and gusts of winds Saturday night through Sunday. Gusts up to 40mph through Yorkshire and over 50mph in the NW. Could be very nasty indeed. 

[Matt H]

ECM 12z ensemble mean is fantastic at t144 with the low further south.

[tight isobar]

56 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Absolutely dreadful run for the South and SE of the country that have already put up with the most torturous winter in living memory. A bit like myself supporting Spurs- we're always nearly but never quite enough. There was so much promise at the start of the season but the runs of the last 2 days are mirroring Spurs current form.

I hope the low is modelled a couple hundred miles further south in future runs so we can finally see some of the white stuff but unlikely IMO

 

If I was living Midlands northwards I'd be delighted with this winter but also hoping other areas got in on the act too so we can all have a memorable winter, but knowing our luck the pattern will be more favourable in Spring as is often the case here.

Again.. get the easterly inflow at the surface.. things will take a different turn @drip n-fold... the ensembles @500>and temp gradient noting the scenarios!!!.. we wait.. we watch..

[chionomaniac]

A bit of moderation advice for everyone.  It is only human nature for all to look at how the synoptic situation affects them at their location.  It is not a crime, or bias for anyone to do this - rather a natural response to those viewing the output. So, we don’t need to hear outcries of bias, selective viewing or anything similar.

When looking at whether someone says that it is a good or bad run it is worth taking into consideration their location alongside any output to get a better understanding of how that run affects them and influences their outlook. 

I am happy for any member here regardless of location to see the weather they desire, but I first and foremost will look at my own location first, and do not begrudge others doing the same.

Especially, as the timeframe we are looking at is not set in stone and subject to substantial changes, whether it be shifts north or south, or west or east. So, don’t get annoyed by anyone’s own location perspective, and if you are really unsure of how the output affects your own location then the best place to ask is your regional discussion area.

If we all do that, then we will be less stressed or annoyed about posters taking their own regional perspective about the model output and a lot more sympathetic to each and everyone’s own take.

It really isn’t that difficult to do!

[sheikhy]

What a fantastic mean up to 192 hours so far!!!

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Dj fart said:

You have PM

It’s fine.. never can be too sure sure with opening links.... sorry if any offence..

Cold and snowy warning ? 

[kold weather]

Just a quickie from the ECM ensembles,

18 out of 51 ECM ensemble members (maybe 17 but I was a little optimistic with its interpretation of a settling for one!) have settled snow in the SE according to the ECM by 12z Monday. Nearly all have large numbers for the north.

More runs do bring in snow from the Atlantic beyond that point however.

 

[DJ Fart]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Just good or bad for deep cold

Cold flow from ENE, snowy down the east side. "2-5cm widely. 10-20 locally"

[Chertseystreamer79]

Mean says low further south....when will learn to wait for the mean!

[DJ Fart]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

It’s fine.. never can be too sure sure with opening links.... sorry if any offence..

Cold and snowy warning ? 

OK, no worries. Yeah, shows a warning to the emergency planners for significant falls down the whole east coast with a particular warning for East Anglia. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

ECM 12z ensemble mean is fantastic at t144 with the low further south.

ECM behaving exactly like what it did before the BFTE, going against its own mean, time and time again, before coming into line with it 48-72hrs out. 

[Bristawl Si]

30 minutes ago, Kreftysoton said:

Totally agree with you, i cant remember a winter where the contrasts have been so big. Down here on the south coast its been mild, dull and wet for the most part with a couple of frosts. You would never have thought January was the coldest in the uk for 10 years living down here! I think were destined for nothing again down here other than a couple of cold dry days which will be most welcome after the amount of rain we have had! I hope im wrong!!

I remember loads. The 70s Winters, and even a couple in the 80s saw numerous cold, snowy events for North of Midlands whilst 'we' got nowt but rain and mild. It is prob also worth pointing out that the North of the UK will frequently be colder and snowier than the South, as that is generally, our Winter climate.