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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?


Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms and anything extreme.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    37 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    that was issued yesterday evening

    no

    the beeb forecast is raw ec op …...can people please stop putting it in here - we know what the last ec op looks like without having to see it on a bbc forecast !!!!

    Not true. This from someone at meteogroup. "We use what we believe to be showing the best guide...so, if that’s EC, then that’ll be what we choose. Sometimes you may see UKMO global or GFS...sometimes you might just see a jet stream map when confidence is low over the general surface evolution."

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    1 minute ago, ribster said:

    Miles away in weather terms as you well know, so likely to be quite different on the day. 

    That is probably the only thing we can bank on.

    Meanwhile the 216 chart is not light years away from today's chart

     

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Incoming from the south west. By the end everyone is covered 👍🏻⛄

    FDAAC163-E788-4B90-8209-D4F34CDE0210.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    I mean this ecm run from 96 hours all the way to 216 hours is just on a different level!!

    It is. Looking at the ec  looks like  240 hrs would be poor. The intreched cold and 850s say different 🙏🙏🙏

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    Posted
  • Location: Newport
  • Location: Newport
    2 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

    GFS almost an outlier AGAIN

     

    gfs-coventry-gb-525n-15w (14).jpeg

    Now that to me tells you all you need to know other than, and I hope someone can help me out, how is the Operational deciphered from the other permutations. Hope I'm not embarrassing myself there. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    1 minute ago, kold weather said:

    Because we are going to be struggling to get much precipitation in here with the LP sat where it is, especially the SE in particular between 120-168hrs.

    There is finally a weaker trough that comes through around 192hrs as the whole complex finally ejects SE.

    Then a big breakdown LP moving in around 216hrs, which would give some good snow, but that really is light years away.

     

    Yep understood , fortunately it will change from today’s run I was just relieved it didn’t implode completely Tbh . Let’s see what the Ens say .

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    Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
    2 minutes ago, AmershamMike said:

    Crikey, I’m a newbie and find the conflicting views on here amazing.

    It’s not really surprising, if the ECM is right you’d see areas north of the Midlands turn into Narnia, while Midlands/South are cold but mostly green.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

    Atlantic having a go at day 9.

     

    overview_20210202_12_216.thumb.jpg.8053becc1ebcacf7d77c63df5f84528e.jpg

    Fab - just need it to slide SE 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Here is a summery at 144hrs from the ECM,:

    ECMOPUK12_144_2.thumb.png.1831a308dff066e5ea801f7d81eab948.png

    Very rough wind flow from the ECM 12z ECM.

    Anything above the blue line will have lots of snowfall, especially with several frontal systems wrapping round.

    Anything south will see increasingly diminishing returns quite rapidly as the convection dries out. Thats not to to say on the 12z ECM it'd 'dry' BUT its going to be scattered snow showers rather than sustained showers and fronts you see further north.

    At least the Atlantic does help the south later down the line.

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming

    The remaining southern areas should see a good few hours of heavy snow finally by day 9. Although a thaw may follow quickly on its heels. If only this could reorientate a little more ESE, it could be very snowy indeed.  

    Screenshot 2021-02-02 at 18.55.42.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    Cant wait for the 18z and if it goes further south am gona dance around naked in the house😍😍

    Close the curtains though!!!!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    A lot of over-analysis about snow chances in the SE. It’s 5 days away - and will look very different.

    Will be interested to see if the GFS 18z continues to move the LP further south.

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
    22 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

    Big move to gfs on this latest ecm, margins very tight for anyone south of Scotland.

     It’s no surprise that Scotland will do best out of this incoming cold spell nothing unusual about that it always happens that way even in most crappy winter and this one is turning out to be quite good for some.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    Cant wait for the 18z and if it goes further south am gona dance around naked in the house😍😍

    That's normal in Leicester haha (was born there) From a Leicester point of view I actually think your in a good place to get precipitation from the Low and Showers from the East as it starts to pull South , maybe a wash streamer .... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level

    EC Op has another pretty good run, details aside, which is encouraging.

    Compared to UKMO, it is fairly similar up to 120h, but at 144h they part ways.
    In America, over the Arctic, and of course in our vicinity. That will have big implications for further developments.

    1077361165_UK-1442feb12.thumb.GIF.d5100a15223883b92292a0df5019acde.GIF1067558233_EC-1442feb12.thumb.png.e33fd5e6705d1ecb2a047f5734448ed6.png

    So, as tempting as it may be to micro-analyze charts at 168h-240h, remember, it really is just for fun.
    I think in this case, even the large scale setup post 192h is going to be shrouded in mist for a while.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Just taken a look at the ensembles and there is no support whatsoever with how mild the 850s get on the 8th of feb in the midlands!!big outloer around that time!

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Navgem . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    A lot of over-analysis about snow chances in the SE. It’s 5 days away - and will look very different.

    Will be interested to see if the GFS 18z continues to move the LP further south.

    The thing with this type of set-up is we are sadly probably to see quite a sharp line between the areas that get utterly dumped on and the areas that broadly remain green apart from maybe some snow showers.

    Regardless of the modelled set-up, broadly:

    North of the LP core - lots of convection, flow  from north sea= good convection

    South of the LP core - less convection due to airflow drying out over land as is normal at this time of year = weaker convection and less snow. Can't rule out troughing though bringing something more organised though.

    This is regardless of the modelled set-up and basically will be uniform across the models other than obviously the GFS.

    EG, GEM is further south and so the whole country gets involved with the snow, the ECM further north, so the overland flow greatly reduce snow risk.

    Placement is utterly key for snow chances.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    31 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

    Yep looks a wet one in the south east.. starting to see some consistency now withing the 12z runs to model the low further north. Some northern parts are going to get buried.

    This is just wrong. 

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