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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Howie said:

You sure? It looks much further north.  You think it would be snow and not rain?

It’s snow for almost everyone. Thickness and DP is low..t850hpa is not everything.. deepest in the north east though on this run..

71704580-8794-420D-A75A-F4A65CC34307.jpeg

9CD4C822-290F-426A-832E-1DF17EA30FEC.jpeg

FAA42A02-B4BE-4723-B7F7-808B22A32F3D.jpeg

D4FD7C96-9AB2-42D0-8981-2C886C7A8272.jpeg

Edited by Tim Bland
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, Chris. said:

ECM1-168.GIF?02-0

looks too far NW, for the south, but getting into FI now, just slight SE shifts and we're in the game (south)

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

 

Yeah ECM is good cos it sticks close to it's 00z run, albeit a tad watered down, but is certainly no upgrae. Most probably because there wasn't much room to upgrade any further. The fact we've avoided any noticable backtrack is a minor victory in itself though! 

Yes it needs to adjust south a tad for more to get involved.

image.thumb.png.66262a71c2ea7c8aff9701f81bc59887.png

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
5 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Don't be fooled that is one very very snowy picture, 

We all crave tbfte and - 13 850s but that is very very snowy. 

I think this next wk is gonna be talked about for years to come 

I totally agree , I think it would deliver for quite a few 

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Matt Jones Contributor

Matt Jones

Posted
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
Posted
2 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

What are you looking at?????

-4 uppers flooding in at 168 that’s what. Certainly not the same as the last ecm runs.

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

A yay for NE england.

And a boo from the SE.

image.thumb.png.849bb71adc1c5f416f9fb0e288d19532.pngimage.thumb.png.ac06def866a9951d3662b49419ec8022.png 

That would be fine for the SE. Uppers around -5c with an established cold airmass. 

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Its snow mate!!im pretty sure!!

Not much room for manoeuvre though. Ideally we see colder 850s earlier on in the run. 

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Well, to my eye this is an amazing run for anywhere north of the Midlands, not quite to the same level for us long suffering southerners!

image.thumb.png.ae0b41a4727b5413efa4a2196bf0aa7c.pngimage.thumb.png.26f895643f1b880d9c81871fe736e0de.png  

Not awful by any means, but at day 7 we're now looking at uppers of -5 in the SE whereas we had been looking at minus double digits.  Time for it to change and maybe days 8-10 will still deliver.  Superb for up north though!

 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Do I like the ECM..well yes,surely to god this could be a snowmaking machine for many...Perhaps Central England Northwards in particular.. theres alot of disturbances showing up here,but I feel some of the more Southern quartet are just a little bit nervous.

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-120.gif

ECM1-168.gif

ECM0-168.gif

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Popular Post
Posted

Stop looking at snapshots.  The ECM at t168 looks like an upgrade in longevity.  The implosion will be if the trough over SE into low countries intensifies and moves north.  The Atlantic blocking is much better

 

BFTP 

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BlackburnChris Enthusiast

BlackburnChris

Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
Posted

Looking at +!68 everything looks primed for a SnowFest and the SE might actually do better than anyone else with the precipitation from that wave that develops . And Temps and Thickness are stil the right side of marginal in that setup.  

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Yeah its cold enough on the ECM.

Bigger problem is it will be much drier for the south on this run, probably south of the Wash-Liverpool there'd be very little snowfall if the 12z ECM is right. Probably will be some, but its going to be modest at best.

PS - this is not just me 'looking at the models, etc' - this is also based on experience of convection in winter months around these types of set-ups and how difficult it is to get any meaningful convection with a onshore flow...unless we do manage to get  snapfire trough.front forming, which is unlikely given the orientation of the axis of the LP gyre coming across from the SW.

Edited by kold weather
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

We /some need to revert >remember.. that an easterly inflow will be modelled as just that .. yet when at overhead..incurred .. things will escalate-evaluate rapidly =differently... be steady in imby assumptions...

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, MKN said:

Not much room for manoeuvre though. Ideally we see colder 850s earlier on in the run. 

Winds from the east = much lower Dew points than you will see from the north or north west. Thickness is also very low. Uppers of -3 / -4 will be sufficient for snow. I’d prefer to see the low a bit further south west early next week but that’s just from an IMBY point of view to get more precip into the south east 

 

A1A13A5F-E87D-449C-8C00-15F4AC6F26DD.jpeg

DA95388B-F9FE-49FD-9D5C-CAB1E266143C.jpeg

Edited by Tim Bland
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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted
2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Very likely - that’s what normally tends to happen.

Normally I'd agree that shifts south could be expected....but lately if anything the shifts have been north and I think there's as much chance if not a bit more that  it shifts further north than goes south as there seems to be more of a way of push up than a push down from the surrounding systems.

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

Why has everyone started taking the precipitation charts as gospel? 

The one thing I can tell you about past cold spells is that the snowfall is never picked up more than 2/3 days in advance. 

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
Just now, tight isobar said:

We /some need to revert >remember.. that an easterly inflow will be modelled as just that .. yet when at overhead..incurred .. things will escalate-evaluate rapidly =differently... be steady in imby assumptions...

So right that tight. Hi res wont even pick up streamers etc

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

Out to Wednesday midnight it’s very dry PPN mostly north of Humber, Scotland and far north turned into Arctic wilderness.

6E8A8B0F-93A0-4E78-8F40-CFEFC4EE49E1.thumb.png.26f59f905db7d9e369b6a1407ac3f41f.png

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Shift north with the pattern by ecm but has better uppers, but if we get the same shift north tomorrow, then a la GFS!

That could be a possibility as the ecm has stronger heights in Greenland than gfs and any relaxing of those and we will see the pattern over the UK shift north:

acm>1841090911_ECH1-144(2).thumb.gif.4857257b4416d27bafd180df96ca3ce7.gifgfs>129835180_gfsnh-0-144(1).thumb.png.9e7f5bf63bd40620e7a55c597fbd7d6a.png

ecm also has a better Arctic profile. Has it nailed that? Join us tomorrow for (hopefully) the conclusion to this saga! In the interim gfs 18z needs to move in the right direction.

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