Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[tight isobar]

Ecm...12z full on.. massive upgrade.. and wins the 100 meter sprint

[chris55]

850s looking good at 120

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks great! but could do with low further SE? may cut off convection? uppers good enough though

[Kentspur]

6 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

In my opinion the met office are going 100% with their own model the UKMO which as you can see is picture perfect.

In the fax chart's own right for saturday 12z which it shows, would probably be more sleet and rain the further south east you head. But look at the positio of that occluded front straddling the country and changing frames from friday to saturday. Later saturday any sleet/rain would be turning more readily to snow and by sunday would be frequent snow showers blowing in to most eastern areas!

Thank you and Dave for your responses, I do feel its misleading when some posters put how great the charts are when they're talking from a IMBY perspective so I thank you for the replies for clearing this up

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Cold enough Mike and still plenty of time for a correction S/SE

Yep this run is good enough.  I think I’m getting model fatigue!  Still would like that correction though. IMBY!!

Edited February 2, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Mucka]

ECM looks okay and should be good for some widespread snow but it is a large move toward GFS from last night with the low much further N

ECM 120 today/yesterday

What we need now is consistency from the Euros and the GFS to move more toward them

[AFCBSNOW]

Just now, Mucka said:

ECM looks okay and should be good for some widespread snow but it is a large move toward GFS from last night with the low much further N

ECM 120 today/yesterday

What we need now is consistency from the Euros and the GFS to move more toward them

Still time IMHO for that to track 100-200 miles further SE

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Cold enough Mike and still plenty of time for a correction S/SE

Your chart also demonstrates the GFS mild sector is already a long way further east

[Chris.]

[kold weather]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks great! but could do with low further SE? may cut off convection? uppers good enough though

Yeah, the ECM actually manages to make some convection inland further south, which is quite unsual in this sort of flow at this time of year.

However yeah this run is all eyes on the NE in particular, probably looking at a 20-30cms event up there.

Further south, colder than the GFS, but not huge amounts of precip around due to the location of the low and onshore flow here. May need to see if anything can approach from the south.

 

[tight isobar]

120hrs.. ya can’t knock these synoptics.. wallop.. precipitation ..at this point is a guess in measure.. not in what would be falling...

[swilliam]

small additional low formed

 

[bluearmy]

Just now, Mucka said:

ECM looks okay and should be good for some widespread snow but it is a large move toward GFS from last night with the low much further N

ECM 120 today/yesterday

What we need now is consistency from the Euros and the GFS to move more toward them

and it then circulates across se England and phases with the low in the sw approaches but uppers and heights stay low

[Johnp]

Now my first instinct when looking at the 144 chart was to panic but....it could be a snow fest?

[Ice Day]

The ECM at 144 

    

It's been knife-edge stuff this run, now a bit messy but does look very snowy!?

[Kentspur]

5 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

ECM 96hrs,great cross-polar flow example.

 

edit.for 120hrs BOOM!

 

Def no boom for the snowless  southern  half of the country, pattern 200miles too far north unfortunately its the same areas benefiting again by the looks of things story of the winter , well enjoy Northern folks

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144, think this will now go on to be very good

[That ECM]

Flip in heck. Yes please. 

[BLIZZARDMAN]

Just now, tight isobar said:

120hrs.. ya can’t knock these synoptics.. wallop.. precipitation ..at this point is a guess in measure.. not in what would be falling...

That's the 12Z  GFS from yesterday

[Duane S.]

Ok, now we’re cooking. Not sure I saw that coming from +120

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, AFCBSNOW said:

Still time IMHO for that to track 100-200 miles further SE

Absolutely but also time for it to get further N. 

I would bank something like this right now as the cold gets far enough S and W to give snow for pretty much everyone and it looks pretty snowy to me though maybe someone can post the actual ppn and snow charts later.

[sheikhy]

Wtf ecm!!!!!you beast❄

[Timmytour]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM looks okay and should be good for some widespread snow but it is a large move toward GFS from last night with the low much further N

ECM 120 today/yesterday

What we need now is consistency from the Euros and the GFS to move more toward them

Noticrable shift west from the darker blues off to our north east......

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Flip in heck. Yes please. 

Cold enough and could be a snowfest as the front approaches 

[jayb1989]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Def no boom for the snowless  southern  half of the country, pattern 200miles too far north unfortunately its the same areas benefiting again by the looks of things story of the winter , well enjoy Northern folks

Yep looks a wet one in the south east.. starting to see some consistency now withing the 12z runs to model the low further north. Some northern parts are going to get buried.