Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[ICE COLD]

The beast from the east Part 2 . 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Purga said:

Interesting (like Steve Davis ) GFS 06z brings back blocking and an easterly after D10.

Another twist to the drama?

 

Back to the good old 10 day chase! 

[CentralSouthernSnow]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

The beast from the east Part 2 . 

Chasing 10 day+ FL charts again ..

[geordiekev]

Now these are the setups I prefer, the classic Omega blocks out in the Atlantic, now they are hard to shift, just a bit of tweaking 

Edited February 5, 2021 by geordiekev

[Purga]

LOL - maybe the 'real deal' is yet to come!

[ICE COLD]

These charts are always 12 days away 

oh but wait we have this at T72

Edited February 5, 2021 by ICE COLD

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Chasing 10 day+ FL charts again ..

Yep I am and I always will . There’s actually a higher chance of something like this happening in the next few weeks . But let’s not forget the great 4 or 5 day spell we’ve got right in front of us . 
 

ECM mean = STONKER 

[rwtwm]

The last 2 ECM runs have also hinted at this low extending heights to the north of the UK. The position of the stall is out by a good few hundred miles between the 0z and yesterday's 12z but the trend is the same. 

It'll be worth watching FI on the 12z set this evening to see if a reload after a milder interlude starts to become the form horse.

[mushymanrob]

8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

. Cold air is dense to milder air (less dense) finds it not easy to move it. Time will tell, as ever!

 

 

 

 

 

YES ! completely agree here, experience has shown that when we have cold air over the UK, especially deep cold, it seldom gets shunted aside as rapidly as many GFS runs have perviously suggested.

I remember in particular the Beast From The East in March 2013, that cold spell was predicted by the GFS many times to break down before it actually did.

So whilst id allways back the NOAA charts, imho the cold wont depart as rapidly as some GFS runs predict, and there is still time IMHO for the NOAAs to modify, however unlikely that may be!

[Ali1977]

The NH has blocking everywhere at day 9 in the ENS,  this weeks Easterly could potentially form into a block to the North, having no warm phase at all!!

Expect some crazy FI charts 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Ali1977

[Winter Hill]

23 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Chasing 10 day+ FL charts again ..

The cold spell has not even started yet. 
anyway we may end up not chasing + 10 day chats due to the cold not leaving our shores. 

[Liam J]

39 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

Especially trying to compare Apples v Pears

Trends show comparing 0z v 0z or 06z v 06z

 

Last 3 GFS 00z runs for the same day and 3 very different charts.

GFS OP especially struggling with mid-long term synoptics atm. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by DisruptiveGust

[Battleground Snow]

10 minutes ago, weirpig said:

No  not at all   the models 6z   look quite good  

Yes, there has been a little push back west on the 06z

Arome (best short term model) and ECM are keen to turn rain to snow over the Midlands as early as Saturday evening.

Then we have 4 days of an unstable easterly flow which  veers between NE and SE, and forms streamers  you will be incredibly unlucky to not at least get a covering in the Midlands.

Finally a potential push of the Atlantic at day 7 and 8 which may stall, this is well into FI by then though.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[weirpig]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Yes, there has been a little push back west on the 06z west..

Arome (best short term model) and ECM are keen to turn rain to snow over the Midlands as early as Saturday evening.

Then we have 4 days of an unstable easterly flow which  veers between NE and SE, and forms streamers  you will be incredibly lucky to not at least get a covering in the Midlands.

Finally a potential push of the Atlantic at day 7 and 8 which may stall, this is well into FI by then though.

yep  the  main focus is on the easterly when it sets in    which i suppose is what the majority of the thead are looking at. But Saturday night  could be a nice little event   which seems to have been overlooked      something to keep an eye on 

[CentralSouthernSnow]

33 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep I am and I always will . There’s actually a higher chance of something like this happening in the next few weeks . But let’s not forget the great 4 or 5 day spell we’ve got right in front of us . 
 

ECM mean = STONKER 

Great cold spell? Yes for east and south east. A lot of us have yet to see a flake

[IDO]

Just had severe weather warnings pop up on my phone, initially for late Sat to early Monday and now from Monday to Wednesday! Always nice that we are now converged on a general consensus of the upcoming cold and snow!

Snow at this range is difficult to quantify but I would say the further east the bigger dumping:

up until t114>

Norfolk and Suffolk in prime position for a pasting in the SE quadrant?

[Paul]

For those wanting to chat about the upcoming / ongoing cold spell, there's now a dedicated thread. This is an open thread, so can be used for model based discussions, forecasts, general chat, photos, reports etc. 

 

[MJB]

Control has some interest 

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters starting to move towards more northern blocking - cluster 3 here would be very cold at D15 - heights to the north, locked in cold via low heights to the south. Cluster 1 could also go the same way. Moving towards maybe 40/60 in terms of a cold 2nd half of February now.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2021/02/05/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2021020500_360.png

 

[Tim Bland]

37 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The NH has blocking everywhere at day 9 in the ENS,  this weeks Easterly could potentially form into a block to the North, having no warm phase at all!!

Expect some crazy FI charts 

GEFS Ensembles still giving a firm ‘no chance’ to there not being at least a warm interlude after next week...

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Man Without Beard said:

ECM clusters starting to move towards more northern blocking - cluster 3 here would be very cold at D15 - heights to the north, locked in cold via low heights to the south. Cluster 1 could also go the same way. Moving towards maybe 40/60 in terms of a cold 2nd half of February now.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2021/02/05/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2021020500_360.png

 

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEFS Ensembles still giving a firm ‘no chance’ to there not being at least a warm interlude after next week...

the mean is more than clearly going up. But wouldn't agree with "no chance" as it looks as though in 10 days time there is a 850s scatter of roughly - 12 to +12. To me it looks as though absolutely anything could happen!

[WINTRY WALES]

59 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

YES ! completely agree here, experience has shown that when we have cold air over the UK, especially deep cold, it seldom gets shunted aside as rapidly as many GFS runs have perviously suggested.

I remember in particular the Beast From The East in March 2013, that cold spell was predicted by the GFS many times to break down before it actually did.

So whilst id allways back the NOAA charts, imho the cold wont depart as rapidly as some GFS runs predict, and there is still time IMHO for the NOAAs to modify, however unlikely that may be!

And computer generated models in the 21st century cannot factor in the fact that cold air is of different density to mild air?? Instead they plough through mild air as if cold doesn’t exist?

why should we have to rely on experience?? Update the god damn models

Edited February 5, 2021 by WINTRY WALES

[Derecho]

7 minutes ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

the mean is more than clearly going up. But wouldn't agree with "no chance" as it looks as though in 10 days time there is a 850s scatter of roughly - 12 to +12. To me it looks as though absolutely anything could happen!

Although there is good support on the mean going up, the 06z ensembles are slightly less mild, indicating an increase in uncertainty. The ECM 00z ensembles are also colder then both the 00z and 06z GFS ensembles.

A return to mild weather looks more likely at the moment but it certainly is in no way a given at the moment. A lot of the colder runs have high pressure building over us before the milder weather has a chance to get in and then building a Scandi block. We can probably rule out continuous sliders though unfortunately.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Quicksilver1989

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

the mean is more than clearly going up. But wouldn't agree with "no chance" as it looks as though in 10 days time there is a 850s scatter of roughly - 12 to +12. To me it looks as though absolutely anything could happen!

There’s 3-4 runs out of 34 that stay in “cold” category,  so they are telling us roughly a 10% chance ...let’s hope that improves.. if not,  I’m happy with a brief thaw before round 2