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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?


Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
17 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Friday 5 Feb

Ecmwf run down on Friday 5 February

The 500, sfce and 850 T charts starting Thur 11 th out to Mon 15 th

The -10 C 850 covers most of Scotland and England east of Solway Firth to the Thames, a 500 mb mini ridge in the overall westerly is sw of the UK and the main surface feature is a low of 984 mb approx 53N 20W. Over the following days the 850 mb temperatures rise over the country to show by Monday 15 th zero into sw England and the -5 C well east and north of the whole uk.

The colour charts for the 10 day period Fri 5 th to Mon 15 th show the same pattern, as we should expect, and the -10C 850 mb temperatures covers the whole country by Monday 8th. The 850 flow suggests 25 knots in the south ESE and about 15 knots in the far NE. The -10 C lies from the Outer Hebrides to the Thames by Thur 11 th and much lighter and rather more variable 850 wind direction. Briefly into Friday the temperatures decease slightly as the 850 winds increase? During Saturday the temperature increases into positive values over the SW, Wales and N Ireland and this continues spreading NE so that by Monday the whole country is covered in +ve 850 mb temperatures and winds from the SW exceeding 50 knots in the far W/SW.

Not something I want to hear. But something when I do hear I take without any grains of salt, let alone a pinch....

I will enjoy what's to come and feel confident there will be further bites at the cherry into April 

Edited by Timmytour
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Not something I want to hear. But something when I do hear I take without any grains of salt, let alone a pinch....

I will enjoy what's to come and feel confident there will be further bites at the cheery into April 

Unless I’m missing something John is just describing the operational ECM run. Look back for updates re EPS / ensembles and you will see that one run does not mean end of cold until April (not that John suggested that either as it’s only a 10 day summary ...

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Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
30 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep, good start as this set up won’t be breaking down the cold on Thurs, and probably not Friday too.

Im thinking a big shift in longevity of this cold spell, hopefully showing on the 06z!! 

Does this mean that no battleground front can approach from the west and can get repelled? All action comes from the east?

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

I'd be very surprised if the Atlantic sweeps away the cold as is being modelled in the 7-10 day range. 

ECM 120-168 just shows how that deep area of Low pressure approaching just fizzles in the face of the beast!

120....here she comes

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168 hardly makes any eastward progression and weakens

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IMO this is going to be the story of the next few days of modelling with a general trend to keep the cold in place with these Atlantic fronts potentially brining boundary snowfall rather than a full on warm up.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Unless I’m missing something John is just describing the operational ECM run. Look back for updates re EPS / ensembles and you will see that one run does not mean end of cold until April (not that John suggested that either as it’s only a 10 day summary ...

I read it as being there's a good chance the cold spell will come to an end by monday week.  While I don't want it to come to an end so "quickly" ,  I find JH's interpretations  are a lot more accurate than most so accept that this is probably the way ahead.  That said, all I'm saying is that I believe there will be opportunities for further periods of snow into April. I'm certainly not insinuating that what JH has said has any bearing beyond 10 days....

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL

GFS Op 06z -v- 00z Weds

Cold is colder in the East but LP seems more 'pushy'

image.thumb.png.ff7750f5d2006160653f8bd7b9d37b67.png

image.thumb.png.eec38c70d406b6fb5e3fce2ee03cfa11.png

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4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

I'd be very surprised if the Atlantic sweeps away the cold as is being modelled in the 7-10 day range. 

ECM 120-168 just shows how that deep area of Low pressure approaching just fizzles in the face of the beast!

120....here she comes

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168 hardly makes any eastward progression and weakens

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IMO this is going to be the story of the next few days of modelling with a general trend to keep the cold in place with these Atlantic fronts potentially brining boundary snowfall rather than a full on warm up.

 

 

There is way too much energy coming out of Canada with the extreme cold for it not to unfortunately.

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Posted
  • Location: West leeds, 115m asl
  • Location: West leeds, 115m asl

Low pressure is showing as much weaker mid-week on GFS. From memory of past cold spells, they always struggle much more to break through once the cold air in entrenched. Lets hope the trend continues! Ideal scenario would be we get a slider pushed over us with subsequent snow dumping!

I'm still looking at the chunk of vortex north of scandi. If the atlantic bits of vortex are weaker and further south and keep tranding this way, we could see a reload from the north!

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
1 minute ago, jayb1989 said:

There is way too much energy coming out of Canada with the extreme cold for it not to unfortunately.

It'll be interesting to see which way the models trend over the next few days

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
2 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

well according to the met office forecast for parts of lincs its bone dry from saturday evening once the rain clears till next friday when it turns less cold with sleet, i have seen some charts on here over the last cpl of days that highlights that as a possibility, i know snow is very hard to forecast but with only 24hs to go before it turns slowly colder i think some places will miss out.

There is no way Lincs is staying snow free all week.... why don’t you have a look at the models? This is the model thread after all. If you don’t know how to view / read them there is 125 pages discussing them to scroll back on 

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Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London
22 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I'll add the 500 mb analysis when I get time. To me they confirm that the 'cold' will clear in about 9-10 days time with a fairly mobile Atlantic to follow.

 

Always enjoy your refreshing down to earth analysis @johnholmes but with many on here often talking about FI being five or so days ahead and sometimes even less than that in these unusual (for us) situations how confident are you that the cold will clear in 9-10 days?  

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

GFS is often to progressive, If we take ECM op Vs GFS 6z you can clearly see how GFS is forcing things east to easily. Those little wedges and the dense cold air can have more of an effect than it seems at face value. Steve M was always very good at reading charts like this, but as he's not here ill have a go lol.

GFS 6 z 168

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Now look at ECM 168

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Increasing confidence with each run that milder air will push in from the southwest from Thursday. There is still time remaining for that to change, it's still 6 days away and we all know how much the 144 charts can change, but I do think it looks likely at the moment. There seems to be little in terms of blocking to prevent the Atlantic pushing in. Our best hope is for the low pressure to slide south and hopefully we will see hints of that cropping up on the models soon. But whatever happens, at least the cold spell from the weekend to Thursday does look 100% locked in at this change and some places will be seeing signifcant snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, chris55 said:

GFS is often to progressive, If we take ECM op Vs GFS 6z you can clearly see how GFS is forcing things east to easily. Those little wedges and the dense cold air can have more of an effect than it seems at face value. Steve M was always very good at reading charts like this, but as he's not here ill have a go lol.

GFS 6 z 168

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Now look at ECM 168

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Sometimes it probably is; but that doesn't explain why we've nae seen a worthwhile easterly, since 2018?

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL

GFS 06z Op

LP actually repelled by HP to South and East 

image.thumb.png.b117bdb75967dfc7f6606183777079c8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
16 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Does this mean that no battleground front can approach from the west and can get repelled? All action comes from the east?

Very lttle battleground with the gfs 06z once again, mild air pushes through quickly to cover all areas by this time naxt week. Hard to believe how quick the transition takes place?!

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