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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?


Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    UKV has 500mm (50+cm) of snow for some spots in East Anglia and the South East. May be overdone (Although I find this model is one of few that normally under does accumulation). Quite feasible though that some spots could see a foot or more, but more widely probably 15-20cm across some eastern areas. Certainly, I would expect a good few cm for more eastern and central areas (and a few spots in the west) than this model shows.

    9600181F-2E04-45E6-8906-3982E9E97B1A.jpeg

    A lot of what iv shown does have a swath of the middle part of the country missing out during this spell, due to cloud cover from the front in the southeast. I hope we see something tbh. Our best shots seem to be if troughs develop and push across! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    5 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

    A lot of what iv shown does have a swath of the middle part of the country missing out during this spell, due to cloud cover from the front in the southeast. I hope we see something tbh. Our best shots seem to be if troughs develop and push across! 

    There is the risk of a dry zone to the north of those fronts. Hopefully from Monday that won’t be an issue as the low pulls away.

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    And if this one has been the most enthusiastic would imagine there must be a good few ensembles that slide it.

     

    Hence the Meto not talking about a 'possible' milder interlude until after the 18th Feb.

    I’d love to be wrong but I really can’t see the whole of the Uk Locked into cold until 18th? Is there any model or trend on any ensembles or a primary  cluster that shows that?  Surely the Met will review this and edit it soon? 

    71E13C15-7051-491A-B9B0-ED7BDA4094D0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: North shields
  • Location: North shields
    2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Big shift in the medium and longer range EPS - significant northern heights back in the menu!

    Does that mean chance of the cold hanging on?

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    I’d love to be wrong but I really can’t see the whole of the Uk Locked into cold until 18th? Is there any model or trend on any ensembles or a primary  cluster that shows that?  Surely the Met will review this and edit it soon? 

    71E13C15-7051-491A-B9B0-ED7BDA4094D0.png

    Presumably Mogreps.

    Also see Mulzys post above.

    Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    4 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

    South east England looks to be in for some persistent snow ❄️❄️❄️

    5DDADBA4-D8EF-42A2-B347-0EF89374D6DE.jpeg

    9F31082D-6D37-4247-9262-139A659676B0.png

    Looks like an area between Gravesend East to Sittingbourne and SW to Maidstone and Tonbridge and parts of Essex will be the sweetspot in the SE based upon that, not many posters in here from Norfolk and Suffolk they must also be delighted after 3 barren snowless years

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    4 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

    South east England looks to be in for some persistent snow ❄️❄️❄️

    5DDADBA4-D8EF-42A2-B347-0EF89374D6DE.jpeg

    9F31082D-6D37-4247-9262-139A659676B0.png

    For us in the midlands its not looking like a good  start now!!we either want that front way further and west so we get the band of snow or we want it waay south and east so we get the snow showers!!at the moment its neither!!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    12 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Big shift in the medium and longer range EPS - significant northern heights back in the menu!

    We know that there will be a surface cold high over scandi - throw in an upper ridge, an Atlantic needing to push the  jet streak somewhere and not really sure how that all evolves .....

    maybe that 30% cluster from yesterday’s extended 12z suite will be larger on the 00z .....

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    Unless the front in the se is further nw then I’d imagine pretty much the whole Midlands westward will get nothing but dull grey skies and dry during Sunday as the front will stop any showers forming in these areas. If it’s not going to push over we need it to disappear and quickly. For the Midlands that is 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    6 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    Presumably Mogreps.

    Also see Mulzys post above.

    Comedy timing by Mulzy 🤷🏻‍♂️ If EPS say there’s a chance...then. There’s a chance..👍🏻
    meanwhile back to snow depths charts.. ICON looks about right to me re depth / distribution Sunday. It also has a lot more showers further north and west by late Sun 

     

    64840788-AE72-4072-86A9-00D43ECDB0E7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    Just now, markw2680 said:

    Unless the front in the se is further nw then I’d imagine pretty much the whole Midlands westward will get nothing but dull grey skies and dry during Sunday as the front will stop any showers forming in these areas. If it’s not going to push over we need it to disappear and quickly. For the Midlands that is 

    A lot of the country will have overcast skies ..... just have to wait for things to from up and even then it becomes nowcasting a lot of the time 

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    Posted
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    That is seriously poor for the midlands!!its not me being negative but that is truly bad mate!!!!must be a cap or shield of some sort!!

    To the north and west of the band of snow there will be a lot of cloud cover and stable layers, so yes acting as a cap to deep convection.  Can't rule out light snow from those layers but you'll be wanting the system to clear SE so instability can develop.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The Atlantic push next Thursday is the worst verifying feature for the gfs, as we have seen at times in the last few days. Even the other models, though probably closer at this range to modelling the possible breakdown will need more runs to find the solution. These current runs are just clues and trends. No idea ATM!

    The first snow event (SE low at d2) still looks hopeful with gfs and ecm onboard. The easterly still looks to flow until the end of Tuesday but there are differences in where the northern line is for the purest feed:

    ecm>ECM0-120.thumb.gif.226c10b4ad4b0fd3dedfa346c3f4fbb0.gifgfs>gfs-1-120.thumb.png.0e912748f18f75ff7492f85b15d63b00.png

    That is pretty solid and a middle ground would be fine.

    From Wednesday the blown up low and the cold block battle away and the question is what will happen? The ecm mean parks it off the west coast:

    anim_ajt4.gif

    That is not bad but maybe a couple of hundred miles further west would be interesting!

     

    Edited by IDO
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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
    Just now, bluearmy said:

    A lot of the country will have overcast skies ..... just have to wait for things to from up and even then it becomes nowcasting a lot of the time 

    Completely agree but that front will stop anything forming within a certain radius around it. Not moaning lol just the way I see it unfortunately 

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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

    Regarding any breakdown shall I believe the model that has handled this cold spell perfecfly from the beginning UKMO or put my money on the model that said it wouldn't happen GFS?

    I will think about it for a nano second.

    Andy

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Wasn't expecting this, the Manchester 2m temperature ECM ensembles. I was expecting the median to go above average from next Friday onwards

     

    image.thumb.png.64a22030f6d19427cae8ea74db5b5ccc.png

    and the op run at the end is a mild outlier

    render-gorax-green-000-6fe5cac1a363ec152

    Edited by Weather-history
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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire

    UKMO run gives ice days on Sun, Mon, Tues and Wed here in NE Hampshire.

    The models I have seen this morning seem to limit most of the snow to the very far SE (UKV model) so could this spell be more notable for the cold than the snow?

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The ecm op at d10 looks progressive for the SE in removing the colder uppers according to the standard deviation, so a statistical outlier:

    graphe0_00_310_152___.thumb.png.e14f3832f6ff3c31561f679699dc4639.png

    The ecm d10 mean is a better choice for instruction and that shows the colder uppers lingering longer:

    131452119_EDM0-240(1).thumb.gif.79926763602cb99218bd931f58ce6e7d.gif

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