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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?


Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    A fresh model thread in time for the 12z models this afternoon. The countdown to a potential cold easterly continues, today it's the GFS having a wobble, following from the ECMWF doing similar a day or so back. Let's see what the next set of runs bring...

    **Model thread rules of engagement**
    As usual, please keep it to the models in this thread, and keep it friendly and respectful of other people's views.

    • If your post is discussing the model output, then it's fine in this thread
    • If your post is mostly not about the models, briefly mentioning a model by name or putting a chart in there does not make it model discussion - the best place for this sort of thing is the winter chat thread.
    • Please use the Met Office thread to discuss their outlooks.
    • A local slant is ok as many people prefer to look at the models with a view to their local conditions
    • Local 'will it snow type' posts, or local forecast chat are not suited to the model thread though, the best place for these sorts of posts is the regional area

    The stratosphere is a bit talking point at the moment, for more info and in depth discussion around that, please take a look at the Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch thread.

    Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
    UKV (Extra subscribers)
    GFS
    GEFS Ensembles
    ECMWF
    ECMWF EPS
    NetWx-SR (3km)
    NetWx-MR (9km)
    Met Office (UKMO)
    Fax
    GEM
    GFS Hourly

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Of course they are - the 00z ec said so ……..

    if they used gfs ops then they wouldn't be 

    Best model ecm they go with.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    worth dragging in from the locked thread i think. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Of course they are - the 00z ec said so ……..

    if they used gfs ops then they wouldn't be 

    Yep.. I deliberately watched a  few broadcasts and it's a copy and paste job of previous ECM

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    13 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

    BBC weather just now, is on board with Easterly winds across all of the country from the weekend 👍 

     

    Yep - as per the ECM! Isn't it good to think we are paying for something that I can get for free!

    I can already sense the tension as we await the 12z's . . .

    Edited by Djdazzle
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Derbyshire

    Was this mornings Gfs an outlier ? I’ve not had time to look to see the ensembles and now it’s a new thread 🥺

    Edited by Georgina
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Surely anyone with any forecasting sense will use a blend of all the model output options here! If we have ECM UKMO GEM ICON all going cold but the GFS not so,then surely the appropriate option is to discard the GFS,especially at this critical 4 day timescale.

    I've underlined the key part of your post!

    It is annoying though - they have access to loads of data!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Georgina said:

    Was this mornings Gfs an outlier ? I’ve not had to time to look to see the ensembles and now it’s a new thread 🥺

    GFS seems to be an outlier whenever it runs Georgina..

    Seriously though the det run I think was above the pack along with the control run..Still looking very tasty regarding the Euros and UKMO though...fingers crossed.

     

    Edited by MATTWOLVES
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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
    1 minute ago, YellowSnow said:

    Strange that. It wasn’t until yesterday, when it showed what people wanted to see. 

    Welcome to the forum Bill, I'm glad you've familiarised yourself rather quickly with the dynamics of this forum.

    "A model is only as good as it's last stella run" should be the official motto. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
    6 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

    Strange that. It wasn’t until yesterday, when it showed what people wanted to see. 

    members were moaning about the ECM as it wasnt on board with cold ......hence the disappointment but generally not saying its a useless model ....most agree ECM is the king model for this neck of the woods.

    I concede there always one or two who fit into the category you suggest...such is life

    Edited by goosey007
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    Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
    1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

    Welcome to the forum Bill, I'm glad you've familiarised yourself rather quickly with the dynamics of this forum.

    "A model is only as good as it's last stella run" should be the official motto. 

    Well the GFS was the best thing since the invention of the wheel up until yesterday. Today it’s about as useful as a chocolate fire guard. Us weather watchers are a fickle bunch. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Like the look of the ECM 6z. Hasn't edged towards the GFS.

    I wouldn't want to be the ICON - first into the firing line on the 12z's!

    I still don't think this will be resolved today though.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Of course they are - the 00z ec said so ……..

    if they used gfs ops then they wouldn't be 

    Latest UKMET are also on song ala ECM 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    20 minutes ago, Georgina said:

    Was this mornings Gfs an outlier ? I’ve not had to time to look to see the ensembles and now it’s a new thread 🥺

    Not an out and out outlier   but very much right at the mild end  in regards  to the timeframe for an easterly 

    image.thumb.png.820285ade26fd171b126145b2ef70b11.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    10 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

    Well the GFS was the best thing since the invention of the wheel up until yesterday. Today it’s about as useful as a chocolate fire guard. Us weather watchers are a fickle bunch. 

    Correct and ruthless and will discard without mercy any mild run ,🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey or Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey or Manchester

    Not sure we can just discard GFS even if the other models are showing something different !

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Like the look of the ECM 6z. Hasn't edged towards the GFS.

    I wouldn't want to be the ICON - first into the firing line on the 12z's!

    I still don't think this will be resolved today though.

    I doubt it will.  GFS is out on its own (and wrong) IMHO

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 minutes ago, BLIZZARDMAN said:

    Upstream low very similar to 00z

    Dont think we looking at the upstream low mate!!its what happens over us and to the south east much more important i think?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
    1 minute ago, Badgers01 said:

    Not sure we can just discard GFS even if the other models are showing something different !

    Unfortunately we can't. Not with ECM being a step behind it all winter. Still think that the a cold spell is a decent fave with UKMO, ECM and GEM going that way at the moment. We'll know soon enough, probably tomorrow evening.

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