Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Battleground Snow]

Lots of options post 168,

very impressive mean for London days 2-6 -10/-11

 

[Drifter]

Latest 84hr fax chart shows a trough about to swing in to south eastern parts on Monday afternoon. 
 

[Frosty.]

Super output again from the 0z, the ECM 0z op for example adds a bit more longevity to the very cold spell, hopefully the breakdown to milder will keep being pushed back!...anyway, enough about breakdowns, we are now on the cusp of a proper cold spell with easterly winds, ice days, sharp frosts, snow showers, even some more persistent snow, drifting, high wind-chill..etc..etc..I’m very happy!  ️ 

[Man With Beard]

Very interesting to the a Scandi High grow on the ecm ensembles next weekend. Such a pattern puts the UK very close to going back into the deep freezer. 25% of ensembles have minus 8C uppers or colder back on the east coast by Monday 25th, but can't be far off a complete switch on the ensembles - one offshoot from the mother low could be all it takes.

[Tim Bland]

Icon goes a long way west with the precip sat night, central southern areas and mids could wake to a covering Sunday before it retreats to the south east..

it then sends the low north Monday afternoon so east mids in the firing line and later the north east...

Edited February 5, 2021 by Tim Bland

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon goes a long way west with the precip sat night, central southern areas and mids could wake to a covering Sunday before it retreats to the south east..

Yeh thats more like it!!just dont give us the cloud shield!!!we either want the band of snow or snow showers!!!!what time do the colder 850s hit!!is it still saturday evening?!

[TSNWK]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon goes a long way west with the precip sat night, central southern areas and mids could wake to a covering Sunday before it retreats to the south east..

it then sends the low north Monday afternoon so east mids in the firing line and later the north east...

Does shift north bring back less cold uppers for the south east.. ?

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Wales exists

It just skims East Wales. @Shakey looks like snow from early hours of Sun for your area. 

@TSNWK nothing marginal about it.. i

Edited February 5, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all a very wintery next week snow along with freezing temperatures,

fax 120hrs showing nicely the track of Atlantic low pressure systems.

All being set up for the U.K. to have a severe wintery spell.The Met Office 30day is 

very interesting suggesting perhaps a short break from the cold scenario before a return 

to a cold dry end of February early March.

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM suite is certainly worth a raised eyebrow for week 2. Let’s see how that develops... There does seem to be a trend for less cold conditions, however whilst south westerlies would be mild, south/south easterlies would probably be below average at the surface even if 850s recover somewhat.

ICON a bit further north and west with that low on Sunday, precipitation more widespread but more modification of the cold further south (still on the snow side of marginal).

Edited February 5, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[TSNWK]

I say this not from a NIMBY pov but I don't think we want the icon solution of further north and west.  Yes it might bring a few more in.. but at what cost for the broader scheme..

Showers and streamers still likely for many if the low stays out east and south this weekend and monday

[MKN]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I say this not from a NIMBY pov but I don't think we want the icon solution of further north and west.  Yes it might bring a few more in.. but at what cost for the broader scheme..

Showers and streamers still likely for many if the low stays out east and south this weekend and monday

If it hangs around the south east it creates a large dry area to its north and north west which would cover a large area. I hope it either clears away quickly or is further north west so a larger majority see snow and that would still include the south east. 

[Battleground Snow]

The low in the Atlantic is notably weaker and less rounded on this run at 120, pressure is marginally higher over Scandinavia too.

This has a long way to run yet.

 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Says someone who lives in Kent! A bit of IMBY creeping in perhaps 

Or perhaps concerned and musing on the broader long term implications.  Short term gain for some longer term pain for more. 

[NewEra21]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Or perhaps concerned and musing on the broader long term implications.  Short term gain for some longer term pain for more. 

Yep, I feel the further north this low gets on Sunday will set the tone for later in the week. Ideally I'd like to see Sundays low stay as far South as possible, helps the overall pattern going forward for later in the week imo.

Edited February 5, 2021 by NewEra21

[TSNWK]

Just now, NewEra21 said:

Yep, I feel the further north this low gets on Sunday will set the tone for later in the week. Ideally I'd like to see Sundays low stay as far South as possible, helps the overall pattern going forward for later in the week imo.

Thank you.

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The low in the Atlantic is notably weaker and less rounded on this run at 120, pressure is marginally higher over Scandinavia too.

This has a long way to run yet.

 

Yep, good start as this set up won’t be breaking down the cold on Thurs, and probably not Friday too.

Im thinking a big shift in longevity of this cold spell, hopefully showing on the 06z!! 

[MKN]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Or perhaps concerned and musing on the broader long term implications.  Short term gain for some longer term pain for more. 

Its looking like a 4 day cold spell (sun to weds) so i dont think hoping for a change Sunday so tues or weds is better is what the majority would want. Im hoping snow sat night early sunday is as widespread as possible

[johnholmes]

Friday 5 Feb

Ecmwf run down on Friday 5 February

The 500, sfce and 850 T charts starting Thur 11 th out to Mon 15 th

The -10 C 850 covers most of Scotland and England east of Solway Firth to the Thames, a 500 mb mini ridge in the overall westerly is sw of the UK and the main surface feature is a low of 984 mb approx 53N 20W. Over the following days the 850 mb temperatures rise over the country to show by Monday 15 th zero into sw England and the -5 C well east and north of the whole uk.

The colour charts for the 10 day period Fri 5 th to Mon 15 th show the same pattern, as we should expect, and the -10C 850 mb temperatures covers the whole country by Monday 8th. The 850 flow suggests 25 knots in the south ESE and about 15 knots in the far NE. The -10 C lies from the Outer Hebrides to the Thames by Thur 11 th and much lighter and rather more variable 850 wind direction. Briefly into Friday the temperatures decease slightly as the 850 winds increase? During Saturday the temperature increases into positive values over the SW, Wales and N Ireland and this continues spreading NE so that by Monday the whole country is covered in +ve 850 mb temperatures and winds from the SW exceeding 50 knots in the far W/SW.

[That ECM]

14 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I say this not from a NIMBY pov but I don't think we want the icon solution of further north and west.  Yes it might bring a few more in.. but at what cost for the broader scheme..

Showers and streamers still likely for many if the low stays out east and south this weekend and monday

I understand the nerves especially in se as you’re on the cusp but when somewhere like Folkestone looks inline to have 6-9 hours of heavy snow and then 20 plus hours of light I would be running round the house with excitement.

[MattStoke]

Not sure most of England and Wales missing out on snow Saturday night so that the far south east doesn’t see slightly more marginal conditions for a few hours is to the benefit of most. The south east (and east) are pretty much guaranteed snow, significant for some. The rest will be feeding off scraps.

[Battleground Snow]

Icon snow falling and depths by 72.

 

[Liam J]

Icon still keen on keeping the cold going.

06z only goes to 120hr but we’re a long way from anything milder by Wednesday next week. 

More of a straight easterly over the Atlantic with a shift south of the deep low pressure exiting Newfoundland compared to the 00z. 

06z

00z

 

 

[Tim Bland]

A definitive shift north from the icon but most areas see something by end of play Monday ️

[Polar Low]

Offfftttt! Some of these model outputs for Saturday night/Sunday are putting a lot of people on a knife edge.

Local bias for me; the NE'ern extent in terms of precipitation from the low looks pretty much slap bang on my location, arguably falling 20-30 miles short. However the latest ICON's shift N would put the E Mids into the game.

If it's the former; then selfishly speaking, this would a disaster. If the low doesn't make it, but gets close, Sunday could be bone dry as convective showers will be sparce or potentially non-existant for locations close to, but not under, the low.

Expect more slight adjustments due N/E/S/W. I'm hoping it verifies further SE by 50-100 miles, or indeed further North by the same distance.

Again, I'd take the former now just to ensure plentiful showers.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Polar Low