Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM squeezes up some warm air between those two lows, offering the potential to provide a better barrier from those incoming Atlantic fronts. Could we squeeze out a more substantial wedge of heights to the north here?

Best of the lot at day 6

Edited February 5, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Lets hope that low out west slides under 

The closer that low gets down to T0 the more it looks like a slider to me. 
 

Wishful thinking? Maybe but I just can’t escape it

[bluearmy]

Convective snowfall more likely further north whilst closer to the cloud shield from the n France systems, will rely on surprise troughs or bits pieces of precip. Certainly ec is, run by run, reducing the nw extent of the frontal precip from the Low Countries low n Sunday and also how far west of the meridian any snowfall is notable from that

[sheikhy]

Ecm much better so far st 144 hours!!also better win direction for showers to push through at a favourable for my part of the world at 120 hours!!

[Daniel*]

Interesting those scandi heights are new, savage cold on Thursday on ECM 12z with slacker airflow would challenge February 2012 over snow fields 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Convective snowfall more likely further north whilst closer to the cloud shield from the n France systems, will rely on surprise troughs or bits pieces of precip. Certainly ec is, run by run, reducing the nw extent of the frontal precip from the Low Countries low n Sunday and also how far west of the meridian any snowfall is notable from that

Blue the amplification has struck again on eastern seaboard which is why ecm looks a bit better at 144 hours!!

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Convective snowfall more likely further north whilst closer to the cloud shield from the n France systems, will rely on surprise troughs or bits pieces of precip. Certainly ec is, run by run, reducing the nw extent of the frontal precip from the Low Countries low n Sunday and also how far west of the meridian any snowfall is notable from that

ECM 00z further west than 18z I think North Kent is looking a good spot. 

[Guest]

45 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I love the way people use ‘one of the poorest verifying models’ when it suits them. GFS is within a percent or so of ECM and the Ukmo at 5days and the mild surge has always been an option. Let’s see what the other models say. Personally can’t wait for that 14-15c the following week

Other than it's own ensembles, the support for a swift breakdown from Thursday is quite lacking from the rest of the models this morning. Many others offer more of a stall. Anyone would think the GFS is overly progressive in these situations  

You leapt on those ensembles like a tramp on chips - given the emotive language offered you were always going to be challenged  

Edited February 5, 2021 by Steel City Skies

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Going to be a tricky one for the models to forecast the breakdown I feel. Expecting some wobbles. But In the meantime, let’s look forward to what we have been chasing all winter, now that it looks well and truly like we’ve got it! 

[CentralSouthernSnow]

56 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

Yes some realism is needed by some . Thursday was always looking like a change day . Not sure what the following week has to do with it . A two week freeze has never really been forecast.

Thursday has never been a change day? IF the low slid under it would’ve kept the uk cold longer.. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Thursday has never been a change day? IF the low slid under it would’ve kept the uk cold longer.. 

Absolutely. It still could after all. Or it could take a good few days to worm in the less cold air, resulting in somewhere getting very lucky in a snowy sweet spot. 

As others have mentioned though, this spell hasn't even started yet! 

[Ali1977]

Shower activity will surely be epic in this, with many getting right over to the west. It’ll be interesting to see what upgrades to warnings start coming out from the METO. 
 

And much better for later in the week for Thurs too!! 

 

-15 possible over snow fields and if sky’s clear Wed night maybe.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

ECM 00z further west than 18z I think North Kent is looking a good spot. 

The 18z op was way down se  but the swing back on the 00z is still down on the12z so the envelope is shrinking towards the se rather than extending it back/remaining further nw 

that’s what I was trying to convey 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Blue the amplification has struck again on eastern seaboard which is why ecm looks a bit better at 144 hours!!

Not really compared to 24 hours ago which is why everything is further north than the epic snowmaking run we saw from the Thursday 00z.  Expect the prose from Exeter to become less battleground won’t extend much into the U.K. and more that it will extend further ne 

[Daniel*]

Only one thing from stopping us going into freezer again, and that’s those heights in Southern Europe some haven’t left it at this point. 

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not really compared to 24 hours ago which is why everything is further north than the epic snowmaking run we saw from the Thursday 00z.  Expect the prose from Exeter to become less battleground won’t extend much into the U.K. and more that it will extend further ne 

Might not be the snow making machine on the ecm but try saying that to it between 144 and 192 hours on the 00z today!!looks much better than last night!!

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

I predict a riot (as the Kaiser Chiefs once said) once the GFS 00z is fully viewed this morning. It’s an utter disaster, massive reduction in snow, pretty much nothing here (again) and reduced totals elsewhere then massive surge of milder conditions into the south west with +10c likely early on Thursday and the cold completely cleared,  even through northern Scotland by early late Friday. All universally backed by the ensembles. In fact the Ops run has temps towards the mid teens by early the following week. BBQ anyone? 
 
 

I'm sorry but there is some right histrionics being spewed out here  and lets get a degree of rational perspective. For a start an "utter disaster" would be no cold spell of any length. That is still showing  a cold period of at least 72hrs length. 

And it is incorrect to say they are universally backed by the ensembles, there a couple of ensembles still show lingering cold.

As for early into the week after, it shows one day, getting temperatures that high and that is at 276 hrs.

 

 

 

[Daniel*]

Still very cold for many on Saturday.

[TSNWK]

So ECM and UKM give the vast bulk of of us 5 full days from Sunday a spell of sub zero maxes and snow chances. GFS four days.

I'm ok with that.. live in the moment

[KTtom]

28 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Nice ukmo at day 6, the plus side is that we are looking at the coldest 3 to 4 days of winter, the negative is I cant see where the disruptive snow is comming from, well certainly nothing to back up the snow charts banded around yesterday morning. Take a look at the faxes, shower activity lines are non existent now, met office app for north east england did have 3 days of continuous snow showers, now its mainly dry. The breakdown gains full support but the problem is the low just stalls as opposed to riding underneath the easterly flow. No doubt there will be some nice local surprises in the east, but struggling to see anything nationwide this morning.

Appologies, I had Coniston in my app as opposed to Consett!  North east still looking good  !

[MattStoke]

49 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I love the way people use ‘one of the poorest verifying models’ when it suits them. GFS is within a percent or so of ECM and the Ukmo at 5days and the mild surge has always been an option. Let’s see what the other models say. Personally can’t wait for that 14-15c the following week

Yep. Just when it suits me. Not using any experience of how it (badly) handles these setups, has badly handled this particular setup, how it has absolutely no support from any other model, large drivers of the weather or the professionals.

Every time I dismiss its output in these situations, someone will claim I’m only doing so because it’s not showing what I want. Just a coincidence I always end up being right. I guess when it shows Narnia in its extended outlook, against all other output and drivers of our weather, and I dismiss it I must also just be doing so because it suits me  

Maybe instead I should jump on and overreact to every run from the one of the poorest models for these setups. Seems to be a much better way!

Oh and look, the other models still say nay to it!

[bluearmy]

The 00z run pushes an occlusion ne at day 7/8 which weakens as it gets to Scotland but doesn’t turn to rain on its journey   .....not a huge dump but a snow front nevertheless 

[tvh3382]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

I predict a riot (as the Kaiser Chiefs once said) once the GFS 00z is fully viewed this morning. It’s an utter disaster, massive reduction in snow, pretty much nothing here (again) and reduced totals elsewhere then massive surge of milder conditions into the south west with +10c likely early on Thursday and the cold completely cleared,  even through northern Scotland by early late Friday. All universally backed by the ensembles. In fact the Ops run has temps towards the mid teens by early the following week. BBQ anyone? 
 
 

Have you even read the Met Office outlook!!  Mild is not on their radar and I trust their outlook rather than 1 run of tne GFS.  Very misleading post.

[Daniel*]

Quite a big difference far away I know with strong cold block to NE all of next week cold for many! 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Daniel*

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Quite a big difference far away I know with strong cold block to NE.

Cold certainly putting up more of s fight on this ECM