Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[icykev]

Two beautiful ensembles on the GEFS. Just how I would love it to evolve. . .

 

[Guest]

I predict a riot (as the Kaiser Chiefs once said) once the GFS 00z is fully viewed this morning. It’s an utter disaster, massive reduction in snow, pretty much nothing here (again) and reduced totals elsewhere then massive surge of milder conditions into the south west with +10c likely early on Thursday and the cold completely cleared,  even through northern Scotland by early late Friday. All universally backed by the ensembles. In fact the Ops run has temps towards the mid teens by early the following week. BBQ anyone? 
 
 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Guest

[NewEra21]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I predict a riot (as the Kaiser Chiefs once said) once the 00z is fully viewed this morning. It’s an utter disaster, massive reduction in snow, pretty much nothing here (again) and reduced totals elsewhere then massive surge of milder conditions into the south west with +10c likely early on Thursday and the cold completely cleared,  even through northern Scotland by early late Friday. All universally backed by the ensembles. In fact the Ops run has temps towards the mid teens by early the following week. BBQ anyone? 
 
 

I think a lot of folks will happily take and enjoy a 4 day cold spell after the dross of the past few winters. With all due respect your location Bournemouth is always going to be one of the most difficult places to see snow in any cold setup.

It's going to be freezing for 4 days at least with snow chances pushing inland on an unstable easterly flow, surprises will pop up all over the place imo!

[mbrothers]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

I think a lot of folks will happily take and enjoy a 4 day cold spell after the dross of the past few winters. With all due respect your location Bournemouth is always going to be one of the most difficult places to see snow in any cold setup.

It's going to be freezing for 4 days at least with snow chances pushing inland on an unstable easterly flow, surprises will pop up all over the place imo!

Yes some realism is needed by some . Thursday was always looking like a change day . Not sure what the following week has to do with it . A two week freeze has never really been forecast.

[icykev]

7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I predict a riot (as the Kaiser Chiefs once said) once the 00z is fully viewed this morning. It’s an utter disaster, massive reduction in snow, pretty much nothing here (again) and reduced totals elsewhere then massive surge of milder conditions into the south west with +10c likely early on Thursday and the cold completely cleared,  even through northern Scotland by early late Friday. All universally backed by the ensembles. In fact the Ops run has temps towards the mid teens by early the following week. BBQ anyone? 
 
 

No offence but not to sure about this post, ECM isnt even out yet, no para, UKMO/GEM not bad imo. Think I need a break from this place . . .

[Andypvfc]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

I think a lot of folks will happily take and enjoy a 4 day cold spell after the dross of the past few winters. With all due respect your location Bournemouth is always going to be one of the most difficult places to see snow in any cold setup.

It's going to be freezing for 4 days at least with snow chances pushing inland on an unstable easterly flow, surprises will pop up all over the place imo!

Exactly. To be fair, you can't have it both ways. End of the day, if you want to live by the Coast and have great Summers then you live down South. Whereas up here, we don't get the fantastic summers or a beach nearby, but we get colder winters. 

[MattStoke]

16 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I predict a riot (as the Kaiser Chiefs once said) once the GFS 00z is fully viewed this morning. It’s an utter disaster, massive reduction in snow, pretty much nothing here (again) and reduced totals elsewhere then massive surge of milder conditions into the south west with +10c likely early on Thursday and the cold completely cleared,  even through northern Scotland by early late Friday. All universally backed by the ensembles. In fact the Ops run has temps towards the mid teens by early the following week. BBQ anyone? 
 
 

Oh for goodness sake. When will people learn?

Oh no. One of the poorest verifying models which has modelled this cold spell appallingly and is known to be poor in these situations and to bring in mild conditions too quickly is doing just that so...... panic!

No support for that from any other models, the pros, or the larger factors influencing our weather. 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, icykev said:

No offence but not to sure about this post, ECM isnt even out yet, no para, UKMO/GEM not bad imo. Think I need a break from this place . . .

Did mean to add specifically GFS....

[Bald Eagle]

4 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

Exactly. To be fair, you can't have it both ways. End of the day, if you want to live by the Coast and have great Summers then you live down South. Whereas up here, we don't get the fantastic summers or a beach nearby, but we get colder winters. 

Anybody would think Stoke is in the Arctic circle and a thousand miles inland by that . The weather will do exactly what it wants..just be happy  

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Oh for goodness sake. When will people learn?

Oh no. One of the poorest verifying models which has modelled this cold spell appallingly and is known to be poor in these situations and to bring in mild conditions too quickly is doing just that so...... panic!

No support for that from any other models, the pros, or the larger factors influencing our weather. 

I love the way people use ‘one of the poorest verifying models’ when it suits them. GFS is within a percent or so of ECM and the Ukmo at 5days and the mild surge has always been an option. Let’s see what the other models say. Personally can’t wait for that 14-15c the following week

[Andypvfc]

2 minutes ago, Bald Eagle said:

Anybody would think Stoke is in the Arctic circle and a thousand miles inland by that . The weather will do exactly what it wants..just be happy  

To be fair, we do have Bathpool or Westport Lake on Sea, however the footy up here is very poor. .

But if its any consolation to Bournemouth, even Stoke won't get very much Snow from an Easterly.

 

[mulzy]

Am I the only one who thinks that the UKMO day 6 chart is decent? Significant wedge over Scandinavia.

Also, for fwiw the ICON is cold throughout.  

The models have a bias to be progressive when encountering a pool of cold air.  Anything after day 5 should be treated with a truck load of salt!

Edited February 5, 2021 by mulzy
Typos

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

GFS doing its usual, as in not having a clue beyond 120hrs! 

If only I’d have just observed and paid attention to the UKMO on the run up to this. It would’ve saved a lot of headaches and emotions! The only model I really trust, and has outperformed the other two over the past week. 

[Ultima Thule]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Am I the only one who thinks that the UKMO day 6 chart is decent? Significant wedge over Scandinavia.

Also, for fwiw the ICON is cold throughout.  

The models have a bias to be progressive when encountering a pool of cold air.  Anything after day 5 should be treated with a truck load of salt!

It is excellent.  Far too many people obsess about GFS and try to make this the GFS discussion board.  We are in for a good cold spell.  UKMO leads where lesser models follow.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Am I the only one who thinks thAt the UKMO day 6 chart is decent?  Significant wedge over Scandinavia.

Also, for fwiw the ICON is cold throughout.  

The models have a bias to be progressive when encountering a pool of cold air.  Anything after day 5 should be treated with a truck load of salt!

UKMO is better at 144 and would likely still have a undercut from the continent. Could really do with having 168hr chart to shows What happens next. 

[FetchCB]

17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I love the way people use ‘one of the poorest verifying models’ when it suits them. GFS is within a percent or so of ECM and the Ukmo at 5days and the mild surge has always been an option. Let’s see what the other models say. Personally can’t wait for that 14-15c the following week

1% at that range in weather modelling terms is the difference between right and hopelessly wrong 

[aitchbomb]

23 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Did mean to add specifically GFS....

But, in your rush to upset others, you didn’t. 

[Snowman.]

ECM is great.

 

[SteveB]

Is there going to be a thread specifically for this upcoming cold spell?

We can then focus on the next 5-6 days and leave this thread to worry about breakdowns later next week. 

[KTtom]

Nice ukmo at day 6, the plus side is that we are looking at the coldest 3 to 4 days of winter, the negative is I cant see where the disruptive snow is comming from, well certainly nothing to back up the snow charts banded around yesterday morning. Take a look at the faxes, shower activity lines are non existent now, met office app for north east england did have 3 days of continuous snow showers, now its mainly dry. The breakdown gains full support but the problem is the low just stalls as opposed to riding underneath the easterly flow. No doubt there will be some nice local surprises in the east, but struggling to see anything nationwide this morning.

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Nice ukmo at day 6, the plus side is that we are looking at the coldest 3 to 4 days of winter, the negative is I cant see where the disruptive snow is comming from, well certainly nothing to back up the snow charts banded around yesterday morning. Take a look at the faxes, shower activity lines are non existent now, met office app for north east england did have 3 days of continuous snow showers, now its mainly dry. The breakdown gains full support but the problem is the low just stalls as opposed to riding underneath the easterly flow. No doubt there will be some nice local surprises in the east, but struggling to see anything nationwide this morning.

Expect showers to develop far more than any model or automated forecast will show. Models don’t model shower activity well at all and this is always the case in these setups. Even the high resolution models aren’t great with it. It’s been the same for past very cold easterly setups.

[Snowman.]

Stonker 

[WINTRY WALES]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Stonker 

Lets hope that low out west slides under 

[Daniel*]

Classic easterly. Frequent snow showers packing in across entire eastern side of England and Scotland going well inland. Let’s see what that approaching Atlantic low does...

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Daniel*

[FetchCB]

I can't remember the number of times the gfs has modelled a breakdown of a cold spell only for it not to happen. At 7 days you are living in FI if you believe any model will be correct. 

Traditionally the primary driver behind the synoptics in the near time are in the far north where observations that initiate the models are not as numerous as they are, say, in the Atlantic. As a consequence model error is greater