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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

ICON snow depth.

image.thumb.png.9b8a3b723057a2759599de30490a9cda.png

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
Just now, Daniel said:

That's current snow depths. here is snow depths for the whole run 

iconeu_uk1-45-111-0.png

Didn't post this as I felt it was OTT.

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Daniel Enthusiast

Daniel

Posted
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
Posted
Just now, Snowman. said:

Didn't post this as I felt it was OTT.

Has the low further west so it takes longer to clear. It's certainly a possible scenario 

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
Just now, Daniel said:

Has the low further west so it takes longer to clear. It's certainly a possible scenario 

It's mainly to avoid an increase in expectations.

40CM is pretty extreme. A modest 15cm with perhaps more in certain spots.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

UKMO 144.

image.thumb.png.aa1a78c955a51ce3665bf5ab0b46d8b3.pngimage.thumb.png.f6c8cbf0c5d2e10aea52e5fe4293dddf.png 

The Atlantic approaching the SW. Enitrely possible for disruption of the main trough. Good little wedge over Scandi.

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

UKMO.. classic run ?‍♂️ =again.. blow up lp.. has two options.. go under or go away.. it’s there to see.. !! The mobile gods dunno whether there coming ..or going.. but they are not gaining.. it’s peach on the beach... or nothing!!. The inflow tight now via outs!!!

BE8755E0-0EF6-4458-91EE-C7F957D5DD52.png

2014C276-2ED7-48E0-A79E-746AB7789642.gif

805A2FE8-032E-453D-9FBF-E8A798E4D662.gif

C035A8B1-4F69-4915-A01F-DCB54A275DB0.gif

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Daniel Enthusiast

Daniel

Posted
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
Posted
Just now, Snowman. said:

It's mainly to avoid an increase in expectations.

40CM is pretty extreme. A modest 15cm with perhaps more in certain spots.

I do agree but with Sundays event delivering 10 to 15cm in parts of EA then comes alone the convective constant snow showers which should add a lot more to it we could be talking 30cm in places. A lot of things have to come into place first so yes I think it's best to keep exspectations low but have an open mind. I certainly would be very happy man if I lived on coastal EA rn

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CSC Enthusiast

CSC

Posted
Posted
Just now, Daniel said:

I do agree but with Sundays event delivering 10 to 15cm in parts of EA then comes alone the convective constant snow showers which should add a lot more to it we could be talking 30cm in places. A lot of things have to come into place first so yes I think it's best to keep exspectations low but have an open mind. I certainly would be very happy man if I lived on coastal EA rn

I agree entirely. Even the Sussex coast could see a similar amount..

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

UKMO 144.

image.thumb.png.aa1a78c955a51ce3665bf5ab0b46d8b3.pngimage.thumb.png.f6c8cbf0c5d2e10aea52e5fe4293dddf.png 

The Atlantic approaching the SW. Enitrely possible for disruption of the main trough. Good little wedge over Scandi.

For me there’s nowhere near enough forcing from the north to make that go under, in someways we’d be better off with the LP just coming through and get another wedge to build in behind with such cold air nearby.

All the while that system sits out there slowly creeping east the chance of a reload of cold diminishes.

Edited by Weathizard
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
Just now, Weathizard said:

For me there’s nowhere near enough forcing from the north to make that go under, in someways we’d be better off with the LP just coming through and get another wedge to build in behind with such cold air nearby.

All the while that system sits out there slowly creeping west the chance of a reload of cold diminishes.

My main problem is theres not enough going East under the block.

If the below was more developed the knock on affect would be lower heights south. The low is stalled but we need more oomph under the block heading east.

Still plenty cold.

image.thumb.png.0c9b5f3c1f46c3c64b895b98d6daf374.png

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icykev Aficionado

icykev

Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
Posted (edited)

GEM up and running out +66  gem-1-66.thumb.png.9a8bbdbff3bc567e71e6cf555a23b052.png

On we go, output from GEM has been preety consistent imo❄❄

+86

gem-2-84.thumb.png.a680e83d818b7d0dbb63400186f82ab8.png

+90gem-0-90.thumb.png.d257ee596e580e0c546f87ef3c183ac2.png

Edited by icykev
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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted

OK so it's looking Thursday could be the day of some sort of trough disruption/or breakdown. Ukmo/icon and GFS show the low pushing against the block to our east at 144hr. This is all still fantasy island for me. I expect by tomorrow evening the low shown will be further south than forecast and I think we could still have - 8/-10 850hpa over us until at least the end of next weekend. NO WAY IS THAT LOW GOING STRAIGHT THRU. 

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted

Pretty modest snow.amounts compared to previous 18z run on Icon out to early morning Monday very little over Thames estuary if you look closely hopefully its underplaying streamer developmentarpegeuk-45-73-0.thumb.png.27a3ca0e729a0d4c8ccf49a26bf166fe.png

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

Please don't use this thread to discuss Met Office warnings.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
Just now, CSC said:

You’d be surprised. This exact pattern reminds me of 2010. There was 30cm in Brighton that day. We was forecast 5-10cm. I think this really could be historic in terms of Sussex snow Sunday..

I am basing this on the model output available. The front is looking amazing for those in EA. Streamer activity won't be moddeled well for a while if at all. 

Lots to play for this weekend/early next weekend but I do feel an amber from the front itself.

Nice convection from GEM.

image.thumb.png.25bcb746038eedeb5de3a380561e1a19.pngimage.thumb.png.b174f579f95eb31613a66ae1cc0201c3.png 

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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted

I tell you something this as got to be the best spell of model watching for sometime. I'm so addicted to it. I'm going insane. 

Also abit more about my upper post. 

I think once the cold is over us. The output going forward will change. 

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Daniel Enthusiast

Daniel

Posted
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
Posted

GEM similar to icon with freezing conditions for Wednesday. If we could delay the arrival with the low a little bit more on GEM we would see mid minus teens 850hpas entering the east. The breakdown looks to be around Thursday ish altho I think we might manage couple more days extra than that away from the far SW

gem-1-132 (1).png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Later /early snaps eps/gefs.. as replicated via the gefs.. it’s likely.. revert.. and come again.. after any mobile =milder interlude...@500 pots.. split snaps @eps/gefs  12z suites.. link and cut of heights a gaining trend after our easterly... all options open.. and likely cold ones to boot

126E4971-D661-4FD0-9C72-04BB68321D33.png

523DEBEA-5E63-4F4A-9524-FCD4C5E10322.png

C5E573EF-2F44-4638-9296-0719D4349CAE.png

9BD709E2-4539-4849-98E2-EF570B9149A7.png

9DD1EA44-B9AE-4F53-AD6F-4FD441EE1744.png

Edited by tight isobar
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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted
Just now, Daniel said:

GEM similar to icon with freezing conditions for Wednesday. If we could delay the arrival with the low a little bit more on GEM we would see mid minus teens 850hpas entering the east. The breakdown looks to be around Thursday ish altho I think we might manage couple more days extra than that away from the far SW

gem-1-132 (1).png

Once the cold is over us. It will be hard to shift and the breakdown will get pushed back. IMO. 

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
14 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Pretty modest snow.amounts compared to previous 18z run on Icon out to early morning Monday very little over Thames estuary if you look closely hopefully its underplaying streamer developmentarpegeuk-45-73-0.thumb.png.27a3ca0e729a0d4c8ccf49a26bf166fe.png

ICON is notoriously poor with shower development, so it will be massively underdoing snow amounts.

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Summerstorm Aficionado

Summerstorm

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
Posted
13 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

For me there’s nowhere near enough forcing from the north to make that go under, in someways we’d be better off with the LP just coming through and get another wedge to build in behind with such cold air nearby.

All the while that system sits out there slowly creeping east the chance of a reload of cold diminishes.

I would agree I feel like it's an all in or nothing it goes under or it doesn't. It's high risk Vs high rewards if we get it right. 

If it goes under and the Scandi Wedge can move west then there's an even colder pool of air waiting. 

On the other hand if it doesn't and sits there it just pumps mild air up as heights rise over Iberia. 

 

 

 

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

Increasing confidence that the first real battle of cold vs milder conditions will begin on Thursday as low pressure tries to send a front north eastwards.

UKMO

image.thumb.gif.7efa878aed22b280b4023f3004c7b96b.gif

GFS

image.thumb.png.73da682624dce96a3a75bde2cb7070e8.png
GEM

image.thumb.png.2a745693398e9e2b7b3b75a4095d5220.png

The GFS probably showing the quickest victory for the milder air as the UKMO/GEM make more of heights to the north east, in fact both possibly try to push some WAA into that area to strengthen the high. This will hinder progress of that front.


 

Before that there will be a good four days of snow showers across the northern two thirds of the country, a little less time further south but this includes Sunday where there could be more organised snow.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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icykev Aficionado

icykev

Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
Posted (edited)

Very cold afternoon 2m temps for Wednesday on GEM

gemfr-9-108.thumb.png.1bbd40b3420e888dc114c1b0c7096f7c.png

Trying to go under

gemnh-0-150.thumb.png.5b672e1efdf94b27353cd58fe41fe2cc.png

Edit: doesnt get there this time but #heights

Something to watch for future runs. . . .

Edited by icykev
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

0z vs 18z

image.thumb.png.951426f5b5d11aeaa196515ad8b24fbd.pngimage.thumb.png.2172283887af67e167b898d0a3e86822.png 

Seems like its trying to go under more, still very far away so plenty of time for it to improve to something benefical.

 

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