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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Very interesting 168-192hrs evolution there.

Indeed the ECM is so cold at the surface still even at 192hrs that its giving quite a dangerous freezing rain event for the south.

Plnety of snowfall over the Midlands again on this run as it breaksdown:

us_model-en-999-0_modez_2021020400_216_4855_155.thumb.png.1eafafd83d9480f97b1b5cebbb89926a.png

Goes to show that even with what looks lie frankly very por 850hpa profile, with the winds staying just about SE and severe cold on the surface, we can get away with alot.

That’s the 0z.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

See how easy they're disrupting even when orientation and tilt look unfavourable

Absolutely, Feb, that is a sign of a special spell.

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Here is 12z comes in further north 

A0A43167-3BF8-4721-9DF1-D8340C639279.jpeg

Right tim where are the rest of your snow charts from the 12z!!the ecm gives an all snow event from m4 northwards!!

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sunnijim Seasoned

sunnijim

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted
7 minutes ago, chris55 said:

An historic southern UK blizzard is in the making I reckon. With that much cold air in place fighting a fired up Atlantic and there is only one way it will end up!

spacer.png

I would love that!

Unfortunately none of tonight's models come close to that scenario.

That said, there is just as much chance of the 'southern blizzard' scenario coming about after 168hrs as is anything we see offered tonight.

What am I saying? Clueless past 144hrs. Not a criticism of any model trying to get a handle on an unusual profile.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
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Posted

The ECM brings several hours of snow from a slow moving warm front with strong south easterly winds (rain/freezing rain on the back edge). Quite a way to go but even a solution with a poor orientation on the low still struggles and could take a few days to clear the whole of the U.K.

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Chertseystreamer79 Enthusiast

Chertseystreamer79

Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
Posted
18 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Not a chance it doesn't even look like a slider,this is looking more and more like a mini cold spell from sunday-wednesday.not even that severe in my oppinion,I think people have gone over the top

It just slid....

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Sweatyman Seasoned

Sweatyman

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Posted
6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

That’s the 00z too

would help if the right bloomin charts were posted !!!

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CentralSouthernSnow Contributor

CentralSouthernSnow

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, sunnijim said:

I would love that!

Unfortunately none of tonight's models come close to that scenario.

That said, there is just as much chance of the 'southern blizzard' scenario coming about after 168hrs as is anything we see offered tonight.

What am I saying? Clueless past 144hrs. Not a criticism of any model trying to get a handle on an unusual profile.

None of the models? GEM, gfs para, icon and met office going for a blizzard in south. 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted

Three factors will go a long way to decide how long the cold spell lasts for .

How quickly the PV over Canada moves east engaging shortwave energy in the Atlantic .

The Scandi surface high and wedges to the north .

Lower heights in the nw Atlantic , both the GFS and ECM engage that with the upstream low .

The UKMO doesn’t and also has more separation with the upstream low and the PV over Canada .

These will be discussed at the CEC ( Cold Extension  Committee ) later this evening .

In conjunction with our operatives in the USA reporting from NCEP who will have the latest on what’s expected to happen with the Canadian PV .

Conclusions out later this evening !

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

ECM D10 teases are back on the menu!

image.thumb.png.c9d7fe67889273566687d03ca3b8b473.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Absolutely, Feb, that is a sign of a special spell.

tbh i still think it will break down, it would be a leap of faith not to think that, but i think it could be at a push half way through the week after after several battleground events, and hopefully then we will be seeing signs of another in GEFS FI by then anyway.

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

Did not expect the ecm to look like that between 144 and 192 hours!!its way better than i thought it would be!!i was dreading it when i seen that bowling ball low in the western atlantic at 120 hours!!!its as middle ground as you can get!!

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Three factors will go a long way to decide how long the cold spell lasts for .

How quickly the PV over Canada moves east engaging shortwave energy in the Atlantic .

The Scandi surface high and wedges to the north .

Lower heights in the nw Atlantic , both the GFS and ECM engage that with the upstream low .

The UKMO doesn’t and also has more separation with the upstream low and the PV over Canada .

These will be discussed at the CEC ( Cold Extension  Committee ) later this evening .

In conjunction with our operatives in the USA reporting from NCEP who will have the latest on what’s expected to happen with the Canadian PV .

Conclusions out later this evening !

In other words, anything could happen!

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
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Posted

Remember the surprise snow events that happened a few weeks back, with a cold block over Europe that was tepid in comparison to this one? The Atlantic struggled to get that moved on, so I will be very surprised given all the snow in place and frigid temperatures if the Atlantic wins out as quickly as some runs are suggesting! 

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

I suspect that the ecm will be atthe top end of the ensemble pack come 192/216 when the ensembles come out. Just another choice from the envelope of solutions.

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sunnijim Seasoned

sunnijim

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted
5 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

None of the models? GEM, gfs para, icon and met office going for a blizzard in south. 

Snow to rain is not a Southern blizzard in any traditional sense imo.

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted
1 minute ago, sunnijim said:

I would love that!

Unfortunately none of tonight's models come close to that scenario.

That said, there is just as much chance of the 'southern blizzard' scenario coming about after 168hrs as is anything we see offered tonight.

What am I saying? Clueless past 144hrs. Not a criticism of any model trying to get a handle on an unusual profile.

The envelope is quite wide, but if you add in some historical analysis and model bias, some battleground snowfall in the south is highly possible. 

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Right tim where are the rest of your snow charts from the 12z!!the ecm gives an all snow event from m4 northwards!!

Met desk site is down and this site is patchy. Doesn’t look like precip comes from the south, looks like it comes across from Southern Ireland up a cross north Wales etc and patchy south of that’s so mainly misses us. Only 1 run though and goes against. OST other models. Also shows plenty of snow east mids Sun - Weds ??

1A033E7B-64C2-41C3-9325-33351AD5D96B.jpeg

1E7424CF-F02D-4032-8308-C130A4AB3870.jpeg

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