Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[tight isobar]

Check the hem..and Euro profile... @just 96hrs somink to behold!!

[chris55]

Under she goes

[Snowman.]

 

Nice

[Panayiotis]

Before the 144hr chart comes out from the ECM, I think this is the time frame to look out for regarding an extension of our soon to be cold spell. Things to look for :

• Increased heights to the north in the Atlantic 

• The incoming low pressure to take on a negative tilt/less bowling ball kind of look 

 

[Ice Day]

ECM 120 - Beautiful

  

UKMO at 120

Pretty good match in the areas where it matters.  Fantastic so far.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120 compared with GEM

Same track of the lows, under the cold block, but deeper = more snow?

[ICE COLD]

T120 still looking good 

[TSNWK]

120 1st low under... 

[tight isobar]

120interflow synoptic... that’s a big BOOM ...   ecm 12z ya saturated in negatives.. and no prizes for guessing the snow potential!!!

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Before the 144hr chart comes out from the ECM, I think this is the time frame to look out for regarding an extension of our soon to be cold spell. Things to look for :

• Increased heights to the north in the Atlantic 

• The incoming low pressure to take on a negative tilt/less bowling ball kind of look 

 

Yes quite, does this go under, or collide with the cold air in situ causing a massive snowfest or something else...

[Lukesluckybunch]

I suspect 144 chart on ECM won't be that good the low that slid under at 120 need s to be further east in my oppinion,I do hope I am wrong I just see that low heading North and combining with the other one out west.but let's wait and see hope I am wrong

[ICE COLD]

T144

[bumpydogz]

I remember the Thames streamer event back in 2009 (I think!). A low approached from the S/SW and introduced moisture into the easterly feed across the south-east sparking an almighty streamer event. Leatherhead got around a foot of snow in one night. This was not forecast, and amber (possibly red) warnings were issued as the snow began to fall. Just wondering if this could happen again from the setup later next week if the low does indeed go under...

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

I suspect 144 chart on ECM won't be that good the low that slid under at 120 need s to be further east in my oppinion,I do hope I am wrong I just see that low heading North and combining with the other one out west.but let's wait and see hope I am wrong

With the jet riding above it  I don’t see how it can go north? North east perhaps  

[Snowman.]

144.

Would love see to see the inbetween frames of 120 - 144.

[bluearmy]

Housekeeping - generally less snow on this run than the 06z ec op and 00z ec op by day 5 across the board (away from e Norfolk and e Suffolk which are still buried! 

[Mike Poole]

Hmmm, not quite what I was expecting T144, seems to stall out west.  So that ‘something else’ as per my previous post!

Still a wedge for it to slide under.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Housekeeping - generally less snow on this run than the 06z ec op and 00z ec op by day 5 across the board (away from e Norfolk and e Suffolk which are still buried! 

Too far east?

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hmmm, not what I was expecting T144, seems to stall out west.  So that ‘something else’ as per my previous post!

I think it’s corrupt, it can’t change that much over Greenland in 24 hours!! Computer malfunction maybe 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

With the jet riding above it  I don’t see how it can go north? North east perhaps  

Well not bad at 144 but not as good as UKMO as someone else said that low out west is just stalling

[chris55]

This needs to slide at 168...

 

[Winter Hill]

Just now, chris55 said:

This needs to slide at 168...

 

Will those heights around Iceland be enough ???

[CentralSouthernSnow]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I think it’s corrupt, it can’t change that much over Greenland in 24 hours!! Computer malfunction maybe 

Surely it can’t just stall?

[Panayiotis]

144hr ECM 12z a bit of downgrade compared to its 00z , we lose the heights in the Atlantic , something which we need for an extension of this cold spell 

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Panayiotis

[tight isobar]

nuts @144 and is by now anyone’s guess @post this.. however if we get this under.. I cannot imagine the consequences!!!.. I’m cutting out here @144hrs... but.. look at the scope going forward on the polar profile scale... spring 2021 may never happen!!...