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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?


Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

Got to say these ensembles don't look great compared to what we've seen of late, a bit of a concern. Location Suffolk

IMG_20210204_162846.jpg

A 12 degree spread at just 4 days . This is all in relation to the handling of that low . I don’t think I’ve ever seen that much of a divergence at just 4 days .

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Just now, Mike Poole said:

Yes, we saw earlier in the season the GFS doing well in situations it is good at.  This is not one of them.  It ALWAYS overblows lows, and this is a real problem when they are sliding under a block.  It cannot be trusted here.  I would look to UKMO, ECM and GEM here, always.

I indeed hope you are correct Mike but we don't need the GFS doing this at this stage!

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM gets off to a very good start at T96:

83A3F510-546E-4154-8C52-2383AFA7EAD6.thumb.png.4b61cb3aeed3ae86468ba34c1515dea1.png483A902A-62EA-4CEB-B43A-474A7764378F.thumb.png.b7f3be014f789b568a733172873ae2d5.png

-16C line not that far away, really!

I make that about 10 difference between GFS and GEM them over  Pay da Calias   

Edited by TSNWK
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

Got to say these ensembles don't look great compared to what we've seen of late, a bit of a concern. Location Suffolk

IMG_20210204_162846.jpg

Isn't that the op (red line) out on it's own though?...If so can't see the problem!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
7 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Gem looks kinky ❄️❄️

73D6A7B7-E54E-410F-8967-893EA921BD8C.png

20D1AF1B-37CD-43B4-ACA5-F9D8AF22F54C.png

06FA3ACB-CF83-4FCF-9A58-8487E10138B6.png

Yep

Loving these charts.

If only..

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Guys come on! Apart from the extreme south and south east (literally coastal communities), this is looking great for swathes of us. The real concern here shouldn't be uppers it should be whether the precipitation makes it inland. GEM Op says no. Icon says 50/50 (for suffolk/norfolk only). GFS and GFSP say yes. ECM06z said yes. UKMO again I'm not sure. There's much to be ironed out but the extent of the cold really isn't one I don't think! 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Also note the dew points, this is the snapshot at 3am and 6am:

   image.thumb.png.9da2827c5d53434b74239967b775e786.png  image.thumb.png.0b30805026b598eee5de440e30c75be6.png

Possibly too marginal around the Dover area for a few hours overnight, but for a large percentage of even the SE its still ok.

And as others have mentioned, the 12z GFS is still at the moment one of the only runs that is developing quite a warm sector like the GFS is...

Also remember, out of 75 members of the 00z GEM and ECM ensembles, 7 had anything as bad as the 12z GFS OP.

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Posted
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Cold. Thuderstorms
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire.
3 minutes ago, DCee said:

Actually the GFS was the first to the party and held strong, soon after the ECM came to the party and has held since. So we can't discount minor fluctuations by the GFS, but fingers crossed its an outlier. 

GFS did have a wobble for a couple of days when the ECM came on board though.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Just now, Froze were the Days said:

Isn't that the op (red line) out on it's own though?...If so can't see the problem!

 

The red line is the hostorical average, the op is the black I believe.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

The UKMO has not budge since this began, yes it has changed here and there but so have all the models.

ECM had its massive wobble, then the GFS.

UKMO just as in 2012 when it killed the Dec easterly, but carried the torch for the Jan 2013 one will be the decider, and right now it has not budged.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The  GFS was last to the party and now wants to bring the party to a swift conclusion.

No wonder it's a virtual cannon fodder model nowadays and about to be replaced.

Actually I though it was first!  Five days ago everyone was cursing the ECM for not getting involved!   But I guess three days of charts from heaven has a funny effect on the memory...

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Thinking about it, I think the GFS may have had a wobble at the last minute with the February 2009 cold spell?

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

GFS looks way to progressive with the Atlantic Low into Thursday next week, Im half expecting it to miss us completely come verification day.

Thats the game though....

That "battle" is the best chance those away from the east coast have of a significant deep snowfall, higher risk high reward type scenario. If The Atlantic low makes it in but get forced south east, rather than pushes north east then an historic blizzard is up for grabs.

Going to be fun watching this over the next 30 gfs runs lol........

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

So here you go . Uppersvile here

UKMO T96 and T72 . ❤️EEE630D7-ABBA-4D7C-979A-9DB881E3AE5F.thumb.gif.9123ac8bcdbedcf5bcd20197d0f4a12b.gif15301E5F-66C0-42DB-8D22-5B3E4A36210A.thumb.gif.a01cb3f579464b72947211ef3268b23e.gif

The GEM 72 and 96 ❤️C4BCB4E4-6FD6-461F-9CB4-63DCA590BC32.thumb.png.34f4defea038e8adc722efa6c46bd19e.png3A333FB7-CE3A-4858-A3C3-7B1A545E6589.thumb.png.6b124f2f54647eb7a584081a2202e272.png

The ECM 00z (12 hours behind ) so have-added 120 ❤️6F751484-BB33-440E-8ED7-72202CD58C81.thumb.png.e3d60a1e5865cfed6463abefbddb7251.pngD36AD7CF-1E22-48D3-B0F2-16AB77851862.thumb.png.fcd90387f86675e872a191b114b21510.pngE6EA6923-2014-4F5F-9C5A-175520034E8B.thumb.png.8ea097afc6c248531d8106df02c1724e.png 
 

surely the best 3 models are right at day 3 and 4 ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

GEM is up to somethingggg

image.thumb.png.cf76daec482b1ec01a6f025ab344fb2c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

The red line is the hostorical average, the op is the black I believe.

Well it hasn't a clue then ...So far ICON/UKMO/GFS (p) partly V GFS 

I'd certainly trust the euro's over this than the American models.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Guys come on! Apart from the extreme south and south east (literally coastal communities), this is looking great for swathes of us. The real concern here shouldn't be uppers it should be whether the precipitation makes it inland. GEM Op says no. Icon says 50/50 (for suffolk/norfolk only). GFS and GFSP say yes. ECM06z said yes. UKMO again I'm not sure. There's much to be ironed out but the extent of the cold really isn't one I don't think! 

Even the GEM OP does have some snow btw, its less than some of the other models but I'm not sure you can describe it as no:

image.thumb.png.826cc88fe5b4afd0134dff9588c206ba.png

850hpa temps between -4 to -6c, dew points of -1c and temps around 0c.

For sure, not the big totals seen on some of the other models, but its still giving some snow for most of EA/SE.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Summary of noon Sunday (+72 hours) low characteristics in 12z runs so far:

  • GFS and ARPEGE strongest but GFS centred over N. France, ARPEGE Belgium
  • UKMO and GEM weakest, both centred NE France.
  • Icon slightly stronger than UKMO and GEM but still a few weaker than GFS and ARPEGE, low centred NE France.

So GFS is furthest west and among the strongest with the low, which leads to the highest sleet/rain risk in the far southeast.

This does suggest the occluding front probably won't reach as far west during Saturday night, so roughly Dorset westward may be dependant on showery precipitation holding together long enough on its journey away from the frontal boundary.

On the flipside, once the front and upper level cirrus outflow clears away, there should be a better import of cold 850s, making it more likely that showers will make it that far west off the North Sea during Sunday evening through sometime Tue or Wed when the flow looks to slacken off.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Good old GFS Always wobbles about like jelly in an earthquake, blows up lows, tries to bring in less cold air etc. Doesn’t concern me whilst all other models are against it.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
14 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Note the GFS may have some milder air at 850hpa 

BUT

Remember snowkings thread everyone?

This is another case where the 850hpa will be deceptive, due to the SE flow coming from a cold Europe which will undercut any slightly milder air above 900hpa.

As long as we can keep 850hpa temps somewhere around -1c or lower, we should be ok apart from maybe literally right on the coast.

Indeed, when you have a continental air mass, the dew points will also be lower.

The 850s aren't always a good indicator. For storm Emma in March 2018 for example rose above zero overnight but aside from 5 minutes of freezing rain, it fell as heavy snow (I was in Southampton at the time). 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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