Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

For those concerned towards the far SE, this should ease your fears a little

Isn't that yesterdays?

[Matt Jones]

2 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

But remember.. it had the limpet low over Glasgow earlier in the week, and it corrected 350miles SE in the end.. If that happens to this monster low. It will take it over NW France. And snowmageddon for the South and S Wales..

Yeah I think I'd back the UKMO model, but who knows.

[sheikhy]

Parallel much more like the ukmo!!!!keeps easterly for longer and atlantic disrupting!!

[Snowman.]

Icon is pretty nuts for EA. And lots of showers NE england which I believe it is severely underestimating here. Would expect them to be stronger.

 

Windchill its crazy too, any exposed fingers will feel numb in minutes!

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Snowman.

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS to be blunt is a bit of a shocker and rapidly goes downhill as it allows the PV in Canada to phase with Atlantic shortwave energy , this then feeds energy into that and you see the pattern becomes more progressive .

 I hate to use the word shocker when there will still be some snow but really not a good run in terms of extending the cold .

Nick, GFS, Para, UKMO and Icon at 144

   

Just looking at our little corner of the world, the GFS appears out on its own here (reflected on the 850's also).  Can't say it's definitely wrong, but as long as the ECM doesn't back it, I'd be confident it's not showing the right solution.

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Parallel much more like the ukmo!!!!keeps easterly for longer and atlantic disrupting!!

Gem has no issues at 90 with Kent uppers 

GFS op is extremely unlikely to be correct against the Ukmo and gem at this range

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Icon is pretty nuts for EA. And lots of showers NE england which I believe it is severely underestimating here.

 

Windchill its crazy too, any exposed fingers will feel numb in minutes!

 

wait for the streamers to come into hres territory

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

According to ITV weather, GFS reinitiates the low development over southern France/ Spain which moves up towards Holland.

This is what is bringing the milder uppers into the South East,

The //, nor any other model does this , and so keeps it 'clean'.

The question is -           is it another faux 'low'?

Or is GFS really seeing something that will occur.

From my point of view the further north the low gets then the better for snowfall. 

Is is again a case of the GFS overdoing low development?

MIA

 

[nick sussex]

GFS 12 hrs run = Butlins .

UKMO 12 hrs run = The Dorchester .

That might sound brutal but it’s not just the less cold uppers but the quicker breakdown .

[Mark wheeler]

Gem looks kinky

[NewEra21]

With this GFS run ideally you'd want that low further south on Sunday. Not just so that the people further SE see more snow, but because that low pushes a bit too far north on this run and the pattern just isn't so good as a result in the long term.

[Jason H]

UKMO run is a belter for all. GFS op is a cause for concern for all eventually. Let's see how it sits in the Ensembles. Great period of weather lies ahead if you're off a cold and snow persuasion. I'm not too perturbed by the GFS op run.

[ITSY]

18 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Yep we don’t want this outcome or trend.

speak for yourself! 

[Captain Shortwave]

Parallel at day 6

Very cold under that surface high, a big battle about to commence.

[mountain shadow]

Just now, nick sussex said:

GFS 12 hrs run = Butlins .

UKMO 12 hrs run = The Dorchester .

That might sound brutal but it’s not just the less cold uppers but the quicker breakdown .

The  GFS was last to the party and now wants to bring the party to a swift conclusion.

No wonder it's a virtual cannon fodder model nowadays and about to be replaced.

[Mike Poole]

GEM gets off to a very good start at T96:

-16C line not that far away, really!

Edited February 4, 2021 by Mike Poole

[kold weather]

Note the GFS may have some milder air at 850hpa 

BUT

Remember snowkings thread everyone?

This is another case where the 850hpa will be deceptive, due to the SE flow coming from a cold Europe which will undercut any slightly milder air above 900hpa.

As long as we can keep 850hpa temps somewhere around -1c or lower, we should be ok apart from maybe literally right on the coast.

[sheikhy]

Just compared yesterdays 144 hour chart to todays ukmo 120 hour chart and talk about consistency they look pretty much identical!!!gfs has gone off on one again!!

[Guest]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

The  GFS was last to the party and now wants to bring the party to a swift conclusion.

No wonder it's a virtual cannon fodder model nowadays and about to be replaced.

Actually the GFS was the first to the party and held strong, soon after the ECM came to the party and has held since. So we can't discount minor fluctuations by the GFS, but fingers crossed its an outlier. 

[DAVE_ALLEN]

If i fancied a bet today, I'd bet on something like this. There's a huge vague gap to our NE. the models dont really know what to stick in there. Im betting on another HP cell building, which will influence the direction of travel of the second incoming low. 

[NewEra21]

Got to say these ensembles don't look great compared to what we've seen of late, much more scatter. A bit of a concern. Location Suffolk

Edited February 4, 2021 by NewEra21

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

With this GFS run ideally you'd want that low further south on Sunday. Not just so that the people further SE see more snow, but because that low pushes a bit too far north on this run and the pattern just isn't so good as a result in the long term.

really good point this - on GFS you could see it was broadly becoming less cold from about 90 - there was more to it than  the South east corner - the whole pattern had shifted up a tad and as the run progress the impact became more apparent - regardless of location I would not be lookin for north ward shunts of the near contienent low Sunday  / Monday - let it stay south and east along with the rest of pattern I say.

[Mike Poole]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Just compared yesterdays 144 hour chart to todays ukmo 120 hour chart and talk about consistency they look pretty much identical!!!gfs has gone off on one again!!

Yes, we saw earlier in the season the GFS doing well in situations it is good at.  This is not one of them.  It ALWAYS overblows lows, and this is a real problem when they are sliding under a block.  It cannot be trusted here.  I would look to UKMO, ECM and GEM here, always.

[Howie]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

Got to say these ensembles don't look great compared to what we've seen of late, a bit of a concern. Location Suffolk

Crazy how there's so much spread just 3 days out! Don't understand it at all

[JamesL]

Bearing in mind the UKM has been rock solid for days and the GFS has been woeful in the run up, I’d be putting the operational firmly in the bin then setting fire to it 

Anyone panicking, chill. It’s every model against the GFS with the ECM still to come 

UKM at 96 or GFS at 96?!?!? 
 

Come on guys, get with it!
 

It was only 2 days ago the cold spell had NO SUPPORT on the ens, only to totally flip in 12 hours 

 

GFS is a joke model in these situations 

Edited February 4, 2021 by JamesL
Sp