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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

image.thumb.png.2cd1b61c1fc2ca1cc9f922d0d6a3372f.pngThe Low that keeps on giving ...just hanging around four hours!!!!

Better on GFS // too

image.thumb.png.4c3a60be4e84c109701f579617cc5468.png

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Pembroke Dangler Aficionado

Pembroke Dangler

Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
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Posted
1 minute ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Where’s that low going? 

Hopefully it will follow the one before and slide into France dumping loads of snow to the south and west as it does so ❄️❄️

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

I’ve been lapped by the models, LOL . Still 10+ pages of comment I haven’t had time to read!

UKMO looks excellent T144, low incoming might look ominous to some, but sure it would slide.  And that 1070 high is something else.  I’ve only ever seen that over Greenland, and there are reasons there why the high pressure is overstated (height of the surface),

A823688C-0134-423B-9693-3235AC11A119.thumb.gif.cc9582ba0abdd03020ac273cede307a9.gif

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craigore Aficionado

craigore

Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Notty said:

Better on GFS // too

image.thumb.png.4c3a60be4e84c109701f579617cc5468.png

Not better

Rain into Whole of kent..

Pattern has clearly shifted north 100 miles..

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

Both GFS slightly further north, with that less warm air makes bigger in roads south.

I highly suspect that this will, as almost always be a nowcast on where it comes in on the radar.

 

Edited by Snowman.
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
5 minutes ago, Howie said:

Definitely, it's making me itch, hoping for it to be moved further south on the next runs

you're right to be so, and that Para slide shows rain for the south east on Monday...

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

850s on the 12z UKMO show the -12 isotherm clipping East Anglia.

UW96-7.thumb.gif.5ebcb5520c077c090cacc86335dcd90d.gif

A good run this!

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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted
1 minute ago, craigore said:

Not better

Rain into Whole of kent..

Pattern has clearly shifted north 100 miles..

Yep we don’t want this outcome or trend.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

UKMO 850s 72 and 96 

86063222-181B-4267-926B-3D465E4FC362.gif

D39D8A54-8D60-4D58-BE44-A98B671BC819.gif

120 and 144 are superb

image.thumb.png.c4fb6cc64a48a998bf78af6e73c5a646.pngimage.thumb.png.e3573b8582daa5d033c64b6952daba03.png  

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

From an IMBY perspective the trend is not great. We do not really get a pure easterly and the -8c never reaches us:

anim_cyr1.gif

Def a shift north on this run and any further correction may see a rain fest. Certainly the Met weekend review suggesting rain for Sunday and maybe snow? Only one run from one model so just one to watch really. Others further north are in for some interesting easterly games.

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Matt Jones Contributor

Matt Jones

Posted
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
Posted (edited)

UKMO looks great, better 850's than this mornings run and maintains a strong easterly wind throughout. Just looked at GFS model not so good though.

Edited by Matt Jones
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Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted

GFS 12z Op seems quite progressive with the LP on Weds

image.thumb.png.c7658b292241149f67413d7cd0e29dfc.png

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, craigore said:

Not better

Rain into Whole of kent..

Pattern has clearly shifted north 100 miles..

Rain?

gfseuw-2-60.thumb.png.7d30046a18678bed648db8ebc15046c4.png

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Jayfromcardiff Experienced

Jayfromcardiff

Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Popular Post
Posted
3 minutes ago, craigore said:

Not better

Rain into Whole of kent..

Pattern has clearly shifted north 100 miles..

Unfortunately that looks like the case but that's just for Kent, it may be better for other parts of the UK.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

No saggy bottoms here...

image.thumb.gif.1f76552a3b07f331c5ec65c1d96297a1.gif
 

After the winds beer easterly that low over Europe starts to bend the winds more north easterly so showers will still be piling into the east. Interestingly the UKMO offer little modification of the deep cold over the south that has popped up in other models.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Yep we don’t want this outcome or trend.

Relax guys, any less cold air is very short lived and probably non existent nearer the time..

4AC679BB-652B-454C-A7A9-2DEB48B724B4.png

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

...just to highlight the big change from the 06z:

gfseuw-1-150.thumb.png.9fc2fde00c4b39d56762062f92466301.pnggfseuw-1-156.thumb.png.1d85592c8cb79b0232e941004b98fc27.png

For the same time.

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Midlander Community Regular

Midlander

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Notty said:

Better on GFS // too

image.thumb.png.4c3a60be4e84c109701f579617cc5468.png

That great, I hope for further corrections north. However, the ARPEGE for example at this time stamp does not show that mass of precip but rather showers. However, recently the likes of the GFS/ECMWF have generally forecasted these snowfall locations a bit better than the high-res. So I don't know what to believe lol!

Edited by AppleUK 123
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