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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?


Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
1 minute ago, ITSY said:

Agreed. Particularly rural Norfolk and Suffolk - looks like a really amazing setup there. But these two models show a reasonable difference in terms of depth and the westward/northward scope of the snow. I keep saying this not to cast a downer but just to keep marginal folks like me grounded!  

I'd have thought you are in a great spot 

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
7 minutes ago, MJB said:

I'd have thought you are in a great spot 

I hope so. Have to return to work matters now but of the GEFS, 12 out of 20 (+ the op and control) I've looked at so far take Sunday's snow significantly inland towards Bedfordshire and spread it northwards as far as the East Midlands. Probably 5 or 6 follow the ICON and keep things a largely (not entirely) Norfolk/Suffolk affair. So I agree...for now (experience makes one a cynic I think)! 

Edit: it's about a 60/40 split across the GEFS of westward and northward progress, which brings more people on here into play, not counting the op and control. Either way it looks like being quite an event for favoured East Anglian spots! 

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Any snowfall on the ground will probably keep max temperatures surpresed under cloudy conditions, hints that the easterly feed dries up on Wednesday at least further south which may allow night time temperatures to really drop.

Should that happen its going to make the cold surface air really hard to dislodge.

The 06z GFS does manage it in the far south by Friday but then another front hits the cold air in the Midlands, similar to what it was showing on its 00z run. 

I suspect though the first front in reality will end up in the channel and the 2nd front will be the one to dislodge the colder air a least for the south. Midlands looks solid place to be in such a set-up though, especially if we do end up getting multiple fronts trying to force through the cold.

Really great 06z overall, a little something for everyone once the fronts are all through.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
5 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

This could be the local weather forecast being delivered in Suffolk next weekend....

Suffolk.thumb.jpg.a3fe2c2663b76396d39d7ec18a4526f6.jpg

Could be drifting of snow across East Anglia on Sunday and Monday, particularly if it's of the powdery nature, winds gusting 40-50mph towards N Sea coast. 

gusts_su09z.thumb.png.61d293e84ff38740ff7e0b424f6ba499.png

snowdepth_20210204_06_114.thumb.jpg.e2e324c1a45e58c3b43a0e5ec7c2b303.jpg

 

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
On 20/11/2014 at 22:07, johnholmes said:

The only major event for this low area of England is 30 Nov-1 Dec 2010 when in 12 hours we had 35cm dropped on this area. I did a fairly detailed post which you might find somewhere in Net Wx files with a map showing 20, 30 and 40+cm in Lincs, Yorks and Derbyshire, along with T-phi info, sat piccs etc.

 

found it amongst my own files, so hope it copies into here

 

Snowfall of 30 November into 1 December in this area.doc

I was going to upload some photos/videos of around my house but not able to will try again tomorrow

 

@johnholmesDo you remember this John?! V interesting read. I wonder whether that historic Humber streamer will return this week? North Sea not quite as warm but uppers are colder this time. Maybe....

Looking forward to seeing the faxes next 24 hours.

Dec 1 2010  

spacer.png
 

 

 

Edited by supernova
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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

Anyone else feel like these charts are all just a dream and you're going to wake up any minute. We've all waited so long for a true cold spell. Still time for things to go pips up, but we're reeling it in now!!

Edited by NewEra21
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

GFS 06z para is very snowy indeed for Sun-Tues before the air dries a little further south ahead of the approaching fronts. This 06z para actually weakens the slider to much and it doesn't give much.

The 2nd front then smashes through rapidly because even though the front decays on the first attempt, the milder air is still present aloft and the 2nd front pushes any surface cold out of the way with relative ease.

Still that sort of detail is very far away, and the GFSP more than makes up for a weaker breakdown with a much better looking main event.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Anyone else feel like these charts are all just a dream and you're going to wake up any minute. We've all waited so long for a true cold spell. Still time for things to go pips up, but we're reeling it in now!!

Pal fear not ...it’s coming

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