Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[fellmike]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

You're not wrong!

 

This is what's at stake next week. If the Atlantic incursion is just right, some areas could see 10-12 inches of snow.

Does that include crewe?

[londonblizzard]

Short 0Z GFS london ensembles until wedneday:



The op milder than the average for sunday to tuesday. Similar to 18z, a good cluster still in -10 to -12 region.


 

[O'Maille80]

That GEM run is beautifully bonkers. 

[Battleground Snow]

7 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

Short 0Z GFS london ensembles until wedneday:



The op milder than the average for sunday to tuesday. Similar to 18z, a good cluster still in -10 to -12 region.


 

Further on at 168, there is definitely a trend to extend this cold spell, can see the split where some members blow up the low, still a very cold cluster option too.

[ancientsolar]

Even for the South, according to GFS , the min max temperatures, seem to have several days of well below 0 down into the Midlands. 

The low that tracks under the UK on Tuesday, maybe the big Atlantic beast will try and do the same thing on Thursday.. is it a possibility ? Is it also possible that Thursdays low is a bit overcooked ?
 

[Ali1977]

A much more potent GEFS mean for T120, look at the extra strength to the shower activity in the North Sea, spreading right accross North England too!! 
Another day longevity to the cold too compared to the last run, better slider opportunities late next week with a slowler wash out of the cold air. Something tells me upgrades to the length of the cold spell will be a constant feature

Edited February 4, 2021 by Ali1977

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, ancientsolar said:

Even for the South, according to GFS , the min max temperatures, seem to have several days of well below 0 down into the Midlands. 

The low that tracks under the UK on Tuesday, maybe the big Atlantic beast will try and do the same thing on Thursday.. is it a possibility ? Is it also possible that Thursdays low is a bit overcooked ?
 

You would imagine it would be weaker at the time, but the depth of cold coming out of America is immense. Will be fascinating to see ECM s take on it

[londonblizzard]

2 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

Even for the South, according to GFS , the min max temperatures, seem to have several days of well below 0 down into the Midlands. 

The low that tracks under the UK on Tuesday, maybe the big Atlantic beast will try and do the same thing on Thursday.. is it a possibility ? Is it also possible that Thursdays low is a bit overcooked ?
 

Yes i think this is possible. Check out the UKMO for wednesday, pretty south:


 

[SLEETY]

Could be an historic blizzard  next week with low pressure attempting to push in from the SW and coming up against bitterly cold air over the UK

Doubt any model has it anywhere near correct yet.. best model watching since Feb 2018

[ancientsolar]

1 minute ago, londonblizzard said:

Yes i think this is possible. Check out the UKMO for wednesday, pretty south:


 

that looks pretty amazing,. I won't be surprised if the meto put a UK wide early yellow warning up soon, 
Little Siberia  for us! 

P.S the uppers in that same deep low,. have uppers like that made it to the UK from the atlantic? 

[Ali1977]

I’m sure these figures are underplaying the shower activity off the North sea, but pretty widespread snow, and deep in many places.

I feel we have a stinking ECM about to rope out!! 

[ancientsolar]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’m sure these figures are underplaying the shower activity off the North sea, but pretty widespread snow, and deep in many places.

I feel we have a stinking ECM about to rope out!! 

does the snow depth chart include potential snow drifts? or is this assuming theres no wind?

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

does the snow depth chart include potential snow drifts? or is this assuming theres no wind?

No drifts and I believe no convection taken into account - streamers could double some of these figures!!

They are inherently inaccurate though, and just a guide to the possible!! 

[That ECM]

22 minutes ago, Malcolm Edwards said:

I noticed most of cornwall miss out on the snow. Is there a chance it could be corrected? 

All depends on the low coming in to the sw. The track of this will be important to who gets what and it’s to far out to know yet.

Edited February 4, 2021 by That ECM

[Captain Shortwave]

Just going to reaffirm that I still suspect that the cold will hang on further and further as the progress through the coming days as the models begin to dial in the level of cold not just over the U.K. but to our east as well. As such there could be some good battleground scenarios for the south and west, but no guarantees at this time as they could get pushed further away.

Nearer timeframes, well here is the Fax chart for Sunday.

 

Highlights the risk of significant snowfall from probably south Lincolnshire/East Midlands and anywhere south east of here. Also note the features further north showing for more prolonged spells of snow due to convergence zones along some of the larger river estuaries or good alignment of the cold air through the Baltic Sea. Most in central and eastern areas should at least get some snowfall and this is around 3-5 days away now.

[Harsh Climate]

Great start to the morning

*gfs op has better breakdown, slower and snowier, better angle of attack from the atlantic.

*ukmo is very good two. 144h on latest 00z run is better than yesterdays ECM at same day.

Let's hope the next ECM coming out soon can give us 3/3 this morning 

GFS

UKMO

[That ECM]

T96 ecm stunning cold everywhere. Also imo more heights showing north each run. Interesting.

[Matt H]

T120 is a beauty with no mild sectors in sight this morning.

[That ECM]

This is what I’m referring to T120 this morning T144 last night. Much to be resolved from t120 on. Liking the trend as I see it.

[Battleground Snow]

ECM at 144 wow, look at the uppers and long draw easterly, will it slide on next frame?

Edited February 4, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[kev238]

Well it’s nailed on that next week could be the most wintry period since the beast and potentially 2013

There is cross model agreement for this - clearly distribution of snow is up for grabs but I would think it might be wise to get a fully stocked fridge before the end of the weekend 

 

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, kev238 said:

Well it’s nailed on that next week could be the most wintry period since the beast and potentially 2013

There is cross model agreement for this - clearly distribution of snow is up for grabs but I would think it might be wise to get a fully stocked fridge before the end of the weekend 

 

I’ve got loads of pasta and loo rolls if anyone needs any?

 

T168 fi is up for grabs.

[Battleground Snow]

Cold spell extended by 192!

 

[KTtom]

1 minute ago, kev238 said:

Well it’s nailed on that next week could be the most wintry period since the beast and potentially 2013

There is cross model agreement for this - clearly distribution of snow is up for grabs but I would think it might be wise to get a fully stocked fridge before the end of the weekend 

 

 

I'm liking UKMO for 144 in terms of mid week (next), key ingriedient is high pressure being maintained to disruts the Atlantic low, GEM is great for this, ECM just about ok, but we don't want the football low of last nights 18z...here is UKMO, tomorrows will be fascinating viewing I feel, especially for those who miss out on th eeasterly..

 

[Guest]

ECM ..Hollywood run!

 Atlantic Heights building, Northerly reload!!!!