Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[nick sussex]

It always makes me laugh when weather presenters have to look all serious when they’re talking about disruptive snow . When I know at the same time coldies  in the UK are dancing around the living room in joy ! There’s normally no such thing as too much snow in our world , although I was a bit concerned a few weeks back .

If you remember that huge snow event in central and northern areas of Spain.

The models originally had that much further north effecting me here , in the end we got the fringe of that with around 5 cms.

I was shockingly a bit relieved we didn’t get the full brunt of that. I love snow but also like the power to remain on ! 

Anyway getting back to the models it’s certainly been a dramatic last week with so much chopping and changing in the outputs . The interest for me now is seeing how we can see the upcoming cold spell extended . 

[Scott Ingham]

54 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The latest gefs ens get the mean below -10 here,i am going to put the beers outside this weekend

London is nae bad either getting down to -8.

Look at the small cluster pushing uppers towards -15 7/8th. We saw the last easterly uppers move from -5 to -8 as we got within 72 hours. Can we squeeze deeper cold from this easterly? Are 850s being under estimated? 

[Don]

45 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

96 and 120 fax charts are out.

 

There are many troughs.

 

I would have thought the 528 line would be much further south?

[Scott Ingham]

29 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Interesting little thing I've noted on the GFS ensembles which are still flip-flopping all over the place.

The reason why they are trending colder again is quite a few of them are pushing that low much further east and weaker, which allows ironically us to go back to a cleaner unstable easterly flow.

It'd be funny after all this drama about the LP if it does end up going further east and stays away from the UK!

There does seem to be a trend SE with the frontal shield over Sunday today though, so perhaps thats not impossible.

Noticed after seeing so many flat line around -15 will we arrive at the narnia charts of 4 days ago full circle???

[Cold Winter Night]

56 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Just for a bit of a comparison, for all that is worth the snow on Sunday and into the new week delivers over 40cm of snow across the north sea in the Netherlands.

Normal caveats apply, but this is an example that shows the wintry risks that could occur. One singular snow event contributes this and some parts of the UK are at risk of being stuck under that same frontal system. The model then brings sub -15C minima when the skies clear. 

We are a long way from sorting out where gets snow, but everywhere across the UK will turn cold or very cold and there is the risk of significant or even disruptive snow. Just the details to sort.

 

 

As a Dutchman I can say that these amounts of snow in Holland, forecasted at just 5 days, are absolutely insane.
And not even from Polar Lows, but just a regular low.
If this would verify it would beat December 2010, and probably join the ranks of the 1940's.
1942 springs to mind, in December I rewatched a wartime video of men shoveling ridiculous amounts of snow into the canals of Amsterdam.

I am pretty confident now that we will at least get some snow. But it feels quite ridiculous that many model runs have already come up with the amounts shown in that chart. Could it be?
I would be quite happy with 5-10 cms already, but the prospects of possibly much more, makes me like a little child that cannot with for its birthday!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvU6byoccks

[Allseasons-Si]

Saturday's fax chart 12z at 72 hrs v's 00z 84...

KEEP THE UPGRADES COMING!!!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

43 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Saturday's fax chart 12z at 72 hrs v's 00z 84...

KEEP THE UPGRADES COMING!!!

Really ?

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

It always makes me laugh when weather presenters have to look all serious when they’re talking about disruptive snow . When I know at the same time coldies  in the UK are dancing around the living room in joy ! There’s normally no such thing as too much snow in our world , although I was a bit concerned a few weeks back .

I

Show me a weather presenter that dances around on live TV in fits of joy when announcing life is going to be severely disrupted by extreme UK weather?  I think they'll get at least one complaint if they did.  I remember in February 1991 they all had serious faces while announcing a "grim outlook - prepare for prolonged heavy snow".  

But don't worry I'll be doing the conga to Susan Powell in my living room in the next few days. 

[Andypvfc]

12 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Show me a weather presenter that dances around on live TV in fits of joy when announcing life is going to be severely disrupted by extreme UK weather?  I think they'll get at least one complaint if they did.  I remember in February 1991 they all had serious faces while announcing a "grim outlook - prepare for prolonged heavy snow".  

But don't worry I'll be doing the conga to Susan Powell in my living room in the next few days. 

Tbf having watched the met Office forecast for the next 10 days, most of the UK hasn't got anything to worry about.

It's only really the East that looks affected. It made me smile when he said it won't be as cold as the BFTE in 2018. Well considering it got no lower than around minus 3 in Stoke during that, I would hope for a little more excitement. 

Now 2010 when we got minus 15s most nights would at least give us up here something to remember, even if we get no Snow. 

[Battleground Snow]

No complaints with icon at 150

Can the huge low slide? Might just be enough pressure around Iceland to make it happen.

Edit: 180, wow it does! Great start today!

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Snowman.]

Icon is bonkers at 168.

Deep cold in place over us and that bowling ball low from the 12z was disrupted

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Icon is bonkers at 168.

Deep cold in place over us and that bowling ball low from the 12z was disrupted

Now that's what we want to see!

[Hotspur62]

Latest ICON seems to show a better angle coming in from Atlantic with better heights to the north between Iceland and Greenland as per Met office update last night.This would prolong cold spell at least one more day as uppers of -12 still on the Wednesday and cold entrenched.Maybe a start of a trend that Scott Ingram alluded to last night?Anyway that is miles off yet and let’s hope we can enjoy nationwide snow from Saturday night onwardsCould start to get very busy on Regionals from Saturday night.

stay safe

[Drifter]

Breakdown, what breakdown from Icon!

[Andypvfc]

2 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

Latest ICON seems to show a better angle coming in from Atlantic with better heights to the north between Iceland and Greenland as per Met office update last night.This would prolong cold spell at least one more day as uppers of -12 still on the Wednesday and cold entrenched.Maybe a start of a trend that Scott Ingram alluded to last night?Anyway that is miles off yet and let’s hope we can enjoy nationwide snow from Saturday night onwardsCould start to get very busy on Regionals from Saturday night.

stay safe

"Nationwide Snow" its only the East getting any. .

Going off the Met earlier 75% of the UK population won't get a ruddy flake .

Although I don't mind, providing we at least get decent minus double digits.

[Kentspur]

13 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

"Nationwide Snow" its only the East getting any. .

Going off the Met earlier 75% of the UK population won't get a ruddy flake .

Although I don't mind, providing we at least get decent minus double digits.

Tbf It could happen for "Most areas" especially with an elevated area such as your part of the world, away from any possible Mild sector too, put it this way- the west is IMO probably more likely to see snow from the coming Easterly set up than the SE does from Westerly originated bands of precip off the Atlantic as we've had all winter without a flake settling. Plus being later into winter convection will be greater and the airs coming from the best source available so likely any precip won't be just "sleet" or rain as again we've had all winter from the NW and West.

Hopefully the whole country gets in on the act even locations such as yours which luckily for you have already had some decent snowfalls this winter to add to your collection

Edited February 4, 2021 by Kentspur

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

"Nationwide Snow" its only the East getting any. .

Going off the Met earlier 75% of the UK population won't get a ruddy flake .

Although I don't mind, providing we at least get decent minus double digits.

Looks like over 75% of the population will get more than a flake by just 96 hours to me

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo at 120, running out of superlatives,

Astounding!

Edit: 144 added

Edited February 4, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Snowman.]

GFS gives EA an absolute pounding with the ‘mild sector’ basically gone.

 

[Snowman.]

UKMO has a small low shortwave in the channel/northern France. Hopefully got some precip! 
 

Lovely wedge with the Atlantic re amplifying??

[Andypvfc]

15 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Looks like over 75% of the population will get more than a flake by just 96 hours to me

The beers are on me .

Tbf mate, as Kentspur says above North Staffs has done quiet well this winter, so even if we totally missed out, I couldn't complain. 

Although having recently had a Romanian rescue Dog, she is absolutely nuts about Snow, so nice to see her enjoy it, especially when you see what they cruely had to face over there. 

Anyway let's hope we all get a memorable spell. 

[Battleground Snow]

GFS at 144. 

Doing its usual blowing up low stuff, but look at scandi! Have no idea what will win out at 168 here

[Snowman.]

The Para needs to come with age restrictions. 
 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Scandi surface HP!

THIS is what we want to see more of.

[Summerstorm]

Something to keep an eye on is even colder upper air to our east on the GFS at +156 with -12/14 uppers making their way into Scotland.