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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?


Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

image.thumb.png.5bb08d59b7bd1e38e38be85040b14066.pngimage.thumb.png.856ec4f35b76f1e88f2ba64be3020996.png

 

Para at 150. Looking good 

 

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

glad to see the para back !
 

image.thumb.png.c060a29255b14e915578888cfdc63617.png

Yeah para is interesting 162

gfsnh-0-162.png

gfsnh-1-162 (1).png

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Cold is definitely digging further south on this run. Possibility here of a good extension of the cold, depends on the behaviour of that dartboard low...

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Just now, DCee said:

Cold is definitely digging further south on this run. Possibility here of a good extension of the cold, depends on the behaviour of that dartboard low...

Funny that

was always going to move further south

and still will yet

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

glad to see the para back !
 

image.thumb.png.c060a29255b14e915578888cfdc63617.png

Will it slide or not ? 
surely those heights south of Iceland will not hold out to that monster low 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
Just now, ICE COLD said:

There we go the low does not come steaming in its done a u turn

4E87FD07-7ECD-4D58-B4BD-1A6185CB5520.png

Look at that profile. It's no wonder it went into reverse. Astonishing set-up! I don't like commenting on FI charts, but that is something else.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming
13 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Quite incredible how snow manages to cross the whole continent but can’t face crossing the UK...

We’ll need some troughs in the flow a la Feb 2 2009 to get some decent snow westwards off an easterly.

Snexit ?

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Looking for ways that the low barrelling through from the west around d7 can be mitigated to extend the cold. Looking at developments in the Pacific and there are good signs of disruptive heights:

gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.727adfb642ba431fa6a29467b23ac9d2.png

These would be influential if maintained and should stall that low as it builds a x-flow? That could allow further blocking in our region as the NH grinds to a blocked halt?

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

There we go the low does not come steaming in its done a u turn

4E87FD07-7ECD-4D58-B4BD-1A6185CB5520.png

I'm expecting this to become a theme over the next few runs and extend the cold. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

The GFS para is what I feel will happen (not because it's more favourable for us). I cannot see a low just barrelling through dense, cold air like a hot knife through butter.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

One hell of a confusing chart from the para.

image.thumb.png.ed9bdea9f04cd99da2f4e41ca2289dd0.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Please please stop using this thread as a vehicle to express angst at location desired outcomes.  If you are discussing synoptic scenarios that concern certain areas, then fine.  If you want to solely discuss your own area, then use the regionals.

But please respect that everyone who posts on here will do so with their first interest being for their own location.  IT’S NOT BIAS! Just understandable human nature, And the more people that live in a certain location the more that will be asking their own location into consideration.  

Please use the regionals for specific location forecasts but still don’t be put of posting in here when describing model output whatever your location.

it gets tiresome for both members and moderators seeing and having to deal with this.

What’s your take  on what happens ie breakdown please edd ? Gfs 18z doesn’t steam roll that low in now . 

966FE9CA-2495-4415-980D-988E4A539A75.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Look, you can shoot me down, call me whatever you want if I’m wrong about this, but it isn’t going down like this:

2754D296-4A07-4158-BD23-9C3048E214DA.thumb.png.88140a8b64d7d798c9fa740e302b8734.png

T174 that big fish ain’t happening. Learning point, ECM and UKMO can handle sliding lows...

Thats a heck of a fat low there.

Typically, these types of lows don't normally come off like that.

Thats not to say we won't see a breakdown at that point, but I'd be very surprised if the LP is quite that bowling ball like either...

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

Once the cold becomes inbeded then any breakdown will gradually be pushed back. This is going to be a longer cold spell than some seem to think ! 

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Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
3 hours ago, Northern Sky said:

It's a 5 day potent cold spell/snap Crewe - if it breaks down as early as shown on the ECM tonight. Often we see entrenched cold air putting up a bit more of a fight, but even if it pans out like shown, I think after next week I'll be happy to start looking for signs of Spring.

In the first week of Feb with ongoing stratospheric disruption?  I think we will see on going weather that defies the climatic norm.  That's not to say epic cold until mid-March.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Look, you can shoot me down, call me whatever you want if I’m wrong about this, but it isn’t going down like this:

2754D296-4A07-4158-BD23-9C3048E214DA.thumb.png.88140a8b64d7d798c9fa740e302b8734.png

T174 that big fish ain’t happening. Learning point, ECM and UKMO can handle sliding lows...

I just wonder, if this bounces Biscay and the South clips this one?

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff
6 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

image.thumb.png.5bb08d59b7bd1e38e38be85040b14066.pngimage.thumb.png.856ec4f35b76f1e88f2ba64be3020996.png

 

Para at 150. Looking good 

Seriously, how can the Atlantic ever recover from that?  Look at the drain potential of that black stuff Siberia and beyond.  Gallons of the stuff filters our way.  Heavy cold  

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