Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Mike Poole]

l love the way on this one (ICON T

I was going to post something, but then decided not to bother...come on guys can we discuss the massive opportunities ahead?  

[Scandinavian High.]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Arctic heights are being downgraded and shunted W at a rate of knots

 

This is perhaps why we are seeing the modelling letting the Atlantic back in next week. Remember just a couple of days ago we saw Greenland blocking bolstered by Pacific ridging cutting into the Arctic.

Most probably be different on the  next run.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

Lol it's one model and one run  CC you seem desperate to end this before its started .

Take the lead from the MET , they know more than everyone on here put together 

Quite the opposite. I want as much from this as possible. Living where I do I will be reliant on either A) a strong enough flow to penetrate showers this far west or B) battleground events 

Otherwise I'm looking at slate grey skies and a nagging wind.

Edited February 3, 2021 by CreweCold

[Met4Cast]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Arctic heights are being downgraded and shunted W at a rate of knots

 

This is perhaps why we are seeing the modelling letting the Atlantic back in next week. Remember just a couple of days ago we saw Greenland blocking bolstered by Pacific ridging cutting into the Arctic.

You can see the difference between runs here

12z-

 

 

 

Looks fine to me?

Bitter cold easterlies, much of the UK seeing snowfall on this run, some in the E/SE buried. 

Shall we get the cold & snow in before crying about a potential breakdown in 7-10 days time?

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

Lol it's one model and one run  CC you seem desperate to end this before its started .

Take the lead from the MET , they know more than everyone on here put together 

It wasn’t meant to happen

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Very true, also allows the colder 850s to spread south quicker with it out of the way!

Exactly that.. viewing the 850 vents on the raws @ops will be of uppermost.. as we get to the infer/incursion imminent-stage @saturday as a guide!

Edited February 3, 2021 by tight isobar

[Tim Bland]

I’m sure icon is just being pants at picking up on the convection ..

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

l love the way on this one (ICON T

I was going to post something, but then decided not to bother...come on guys can we discuss the massive opportunities ahead?  

Is there a way you can see the ppn as snow on Icon 

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Looks fine to me?

Bitter cold easterlies, much of the UK seeing snowfall on this run, some in the E/SE buried. 

Shall we get the cold & snow in before crying about a potential breakdown in 7-10 days time?

The breakdown is there in the modelling- perfectly fine to talk about IMO. If we can speculate on cold showing 7 days out then we can discuss a potential breakdown!

Not to mention, the breakdown period could be the west's best chance at something appreciable from this spell.

Edited February 3, 2021 by CreweCold

[kold weather]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

I’m sure icon is just being pants at picking up on the convection ..

Yes it is, ignore what its showing.

Indeed, if it has ANY convection at all inland, thats normally a strong signal for convection indeed.

A bit worrying that ICON also has the same warm sector the ECM and GFS has get into the far SE, which turns things marginal and a little sloppy for a time on Monday.

BUT it also has a great snow event down thee on Sunday, so I think we can tolerate a little marginality for a time.

[snowbob]

I did say that this would correct south over time

gfs is terrible at handling easterlies. It just does not like them .

knew that the out come would be good for south

also still think it will go further south into France yet which is great for the whole of U.K. 

as you will see

no chart will show the instability in the North Sea 

showers will pop up everywhere on east facing coasts and turn into prolonged streamers and spells which will move inland as time goes on

cold is coming

snow will come

Edited February 3, 2021 by snowbob

[Guest]

Blimey after reading some of the posts above I just had to check I didn't imagine the ECM run....

 No I thought not!

I think I'll  put on some REM to cheer myself up!

Edited February 3, 2021 by Guest

[TSNWK]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Arctic heights are being downgraded and shunted W at a rate of knots

 

This is perhaps why we are seeing the modelling letting the Atlantic back in next week. Remember just a couple of days ago we saw Greenland blocking bolstered by Pacific ridging cutting into the Arctic.

You can see the difference between runs here

12z-

 

Maybe., but I note we might have trend forming on heights building to our bear north east.. a south scandi wedge if you like.. very noticeable on ecm around day 8 and 9 compared with this morning..

Ebbs and flows I guess.. frankly it can do what it likes north or north east so long as we maintain the cold 

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

 

 

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, MJB said:

Is there a way you can see the ppn as snow on Icon 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine ICON-EU 0.065° du DWD (météo allemande) sur 5 zones (France, Nord-Ouest, Nord-Est, Sud-Ouest, Sud-Est)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon-eu.php?map=510

Higher res Uk run comes out a bit later than the Europe view..by which rime most people have moved onto the GFS hence why you don’t see the snow maps from it very often 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Continental Climate]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Arctic heights are being downgraded and shunted W at a rate of knots

 

This is perhaps why we are seeing the modelling letting the Atlantic back in next week. Remember just a couple of days ago we saw Greenland blocking bolstered by Pacific ridging cutting into the Arctic.

You can see the difference between runs here

12z-

 

 

 

A concerning development indeed. However im just going to assume we are getting a 5 day very cold snowy spell and enjoy it and not batter my head about breakdowns. 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Is there a way you can see the ppn as snow on Icon 

No but you can see here at T120 there isn’t any precipitation at all:

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Continental Climate said:

A concerning development indeed. However im just going to assume we are getting a 5 day very cold snowy spell and enjoy it and not batter my head about breakdowns. 

It is but people don't want to discuss the possibility...perfectly fine for those in the E and S of the UK that are guaranteed snow during the initial spell of cold. However it is more concerning for those of us in the west who will be reliant on something just that little bit more special in order to see a decent snowfall. 

[NewEra21]

1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

A concerning development indeed. However im just going to assume we are getting a 5 day very cold snowy spell and enjoy it and not batter my head about breakdowns. 

100% agreed. Most of us have waited so long for a proper cold spell, let's enjoy these charts, the cold and snow while we can.

Not saying there's anything wrong with looking for a breakdown, so I don't want that to come across the wrong way. As all model output is equally up for discussion

[Tim Bland]

Precip starts to turn wintry in the south from Sat eve...

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

No but you can see here at T120 there isn’t any precipitation at all:

Those showers modelled in the North Sea won't just dissipate as soon as they hit land like that. ICON has serious issues with convection on its low-res view. 

[Scott Ingham]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Quite the opposite. I want as much from this as possible. Living where I do I will be reliant on either A) a strong enough flow to penetrate showers this far west or B) battleground events 

Otherwise I'm looking at slate grey skies and a nagging wind.

I can understand your frustration from an imby perspective. Prospects are extremely good however for those in the East. Even if its a 4 or 5 day spell. For what its worth i outlined earlier why im with the met on a much longer period of below average temperatures. Models are always without fail too quick to break down a spell like this. The current rise in AAM and move to high end phase 7/8 of the mjo isnt due to show its hand till after the 13th so id relax atm. Im surprised if models have fully picked up on this as regards Northern blocking in Greenland Iceland and Scamdi. I expect saturday or sunday to start to lengthen the spell

[NewEra21]

1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

Those showers modelled in the North Sea won't just dissipate as soon as they hit land like that. ICON has serious issues with convection on its low-res view. 

Yep there's so much activity in the North Sea, no way that easterly doesn't bring those showers inland. Especially for Northern areas!

[Troubleatmill]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It is but people don't want to discuss the possibility...perfectly fine for those in the E and S of the UK that are guaranteed snow during the initial spell of cold. However it is more concerning for those of us in the west who will be reliant on something just that little bit more special in order to see a decent snowfall. 

Indeed, I have my eye on the low possibly coming in next Thursday and hoping it slides a little so it comes in on SE/NW axis, not much in the days before it is that exciting west of any high ground 

[Day_9]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T96 v UKMO:

Notice the two lows to the southwest, one thing I’m increasingly starting to notice is that UKMO is reluctant to develop deep lows here, ECM a bit more, and GFS over the top.  I’m convinced that in this region, massively affecting the UK, the UKMO has it right.

There’s a mass production facility for them just off Canada.  With a bit of luck we get persistent sliders and entrenched cold 

[pyrotech]

The cold spell is on but the certainty evaporates around 9th/11th.

We have two major models now that deepen the low until it is strong enough to affect  the cold air, we also have heights over Greenland diminishing.

If we look at the ECM and GFS at 11th Jan, There are strong South Westerly winds that will rapidly change any frontal snow back to rain. 

However, the models are playing with a number of opportunities in that range.

A Strong jet stream is the main driver, it changes from a North West too South East jet, to becoming a Westerly Jet. This allowed by the forecast loss of heights to the North over Greenland. It is also affected by The high over Scandinavia slipping away but strengthening. Both of these can be more stubborn than predicted.

Question is how much these scenarios are credible due to that severe cold boundary coming off the East Coast USA.

 

The Ensembles show a lot of uncertainty on this scenario, i show Cardiff, but they follow similar path in Essex so this is a good example.

We have seen that low become less deep and a slider and that could return.

The breakdown or attempted breakdown may not be something many want to talk about, but for many in South UK and especially those in South West this is very often the route to any meaningful snow. So sorry if this talk about breakdown is not the main talk for those in North Sea Coastal zones.

Definitely a worry that the two big boys have this scenario, in what is definitely fi ground, but for now i see it as a valid option (disappointing one) as it not only limits the throw of the dice for South West uk, but also shortens the cold spell for those who get the snow.

The pub run may show the better option again, but i feel it will be at least Saturday before the attempt of breakdown is decided. Many of the twitter accounts from professional are eerily quiet and i think that tells the story.