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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?


Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

Given the breakdown is at day 8/9 we could easily see firstly the approaching low modelled to be much less deep and secondly we could still see surface heights to our north/north east exert far more influence on proceedings.

Still five solidly cold days in the south, longer the further north and east you get.

as you say on surface that was the big difference around day 8 where there were none there was 1030 wedge southen scandi...

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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
6 minutes ago, snowice said:

I say 144 FI at present enjoy the epic charts.

 

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

With the 0c uppers reaching the Scottish Borders latitude to our west,  there is only going to be one winner i’m afraid... I hope to do an Ian brown “wtf moment “ shortly though lol

I stick to 120h as the borderline between 'reliable' and FI.

I do look for general trends and developments past that though.
Models have a tendency to underestimate the resilience of very cold air masses.
At this point, Northwestern Europe has a solid snow cover, it is freezing from the surface up.
That will be a stumbling block for many Atlantic attacks. If the Atlantic is a bit weaker, and the block a bit stronger, the Atlantic has no chance.

Ireland and the West of the UK might be most at risk of some milder temps, but that can't be a surprise.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

The breakdown btw is far from poor for a large chunk of the country btw:

us_model-en-999-0_modez_2021020312_204_4855_155.thumb.png.5c27f00d8077eee42e969ef9598296ab.png2050120482_us_model-en-999-0_modez_2021020300_240_4855_155(1).thumb.png.577827bc0455e8b55cfb9e96fdbb0baf.png

A bit crudy for us poor folks south of the M4 (what a screw job for us!)

However still far from poor...

Wow!!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

An excellent ECM run upto day 8 .

Hard to grumble with the amount of snow chances , the low on Sunday is still too far out to nail down . The more shallower the better for those more marginal areas .

A trend also to dig more of that cold further south into mainland Europe which could be important depending on the angle of attack from the Atlantic .

The ECM has made quite a change from previous runs , before the limpet shortwave phased with the upstream low , this is always a bit risky , here this doesn’t .

Regarding any breakdown the angle of any attempt by low pressure to move in is likely to change between runs .

 

Yes Nick, we certainly don't want to end up like this!

image.thumb.png.33e66021727553260dacacff9bd217b2.pngimage.thumb.png.17ab1238ee0d0a40ae971ab37ba39689.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

An excellent ECM run upto day 8 .

Hard to grumble with the amount of snow chances , the low on Sunday is still too far out to nail down . The more shallower the better for those more marginal areas .

A trend also to dig more of that cold further south into mainland Europe which could be important depending on the angle of attack from the Atlantic .

The ECM has made quite a change from previous runs , before the limpet shortwave phased with the upstream low , this is always a bit risky , here this doesn’t .

Regarding any breakdown the angle of any attempt by low pressure to move in is likely to change between runs .

 

Nick when do we expect your committee meeting report tonight. Hope there hasn’t been any lasting damage to the members over the last few days!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Looking at the later output of all models (and ECM T216 which just looks ridiculous and not worth posting, not in a cold or mild way I hasten to add), I think by about day 5, Sunday into Monday, I think the models will be able to chart the way forward.  For now that longer timescale is clouded by FI fog!  I think given the drivers, the SSW being felt at max penetration to the trop right now, the MJO, the increase in AAM, CFS take, but I’m accepting it:

CE8D4960-4655-48C3-9D9A-8B16B5CF4F36.thumb.png.4bd9a60dc02991e9e6d1fce1ed6e9584.png

And the SSTs, someone asked earlier:

7E5DB722-4758-4C4A-BD39-B15C7FE080AD.thumb.gif.f597b792bf454a4b99385f4947003b19.gif

Still warm enough, above average, to facilitate convection...

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Anyone not happy with these charts need to move to Alaska coz it don't get much better than that in Blighty!

Snow potential everywhere at some point no point looking beyond day 7, as history tells that cold will take some shifting! Let the fun commence!☃️

image.thumb.png.402ec19386aed383ea8c4ee10ef92207.png

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
6 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

Bringing the low pressure across the country for a huge snowy breakdown, why would I be joking?

You might want to check the 850's

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming
4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The breakdown btw is far from poor for a large chunk of the country btw:

us_model-en-999-0_modez_2021020312_204_4855_155.thumb.png.5c27f00d8077eee42e969ef9598296ab.png2050120482_us_model-en-999-0_modez_2021020300_240_4855_155(1).thumb.png.577827bc0455e8b55cfb9e96fdbb0baf.png

A bit crudy for us poor folks south of the M4 (what a screw job for us!)

However still far from poor...

How long till you see the breakdown hitting in earnest ?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Spot the pattern over the last 3 runs from ECM regarding Sunday further south....

AC0BC61A-8E29-4F5E-A4B2-341E22A038F7.thumb.png.2ba92312e6b0244a27ce654c84107e5b.pngAD43AE11-B54C-4641-A743-604818C17776.thumb.png.546b8e00489bac9839f4151d12c53670.png91BED226-61BF-4890-BF76-AC59F15C4BA4.thumb.png.a1b96d9feb68987007019d106005daf4.png

If that trend continues, then hopefully the mixing of the slightly less cold uppers, might get pushed into N.France also

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

For those that say we get the American weather 10 Days after 5 to 6 Days ago there was blizzard conditions on the east coast. That same air parcel is what heads our way early next week. 

1299312961_44742358858620210203_190211.thumb.jpg.d0738fc2b86985ff96cd3e47c401e315.jpg

gensnh-0-1-126.thumb.png.1eca71ff22a3b8ed64f684c53252b340.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Spot the pattern over the last 3 runs from ECM regarding Sunday further south....

AC0BC61A-8E29-4F5E-A4B2-341E22A038F7.thumb.png.2ba92312e6b0244a27ce654c84107e5b.pngAD43AE11-B54C-4641-A743-604818C17776.thumb.png.546b8e00489bac9839f4151d12c53670.png91BED226-61BF-4890-BF76-AC59F15C4BA4.thumb.png.a1b96d9feb68987007019d106005daf4.png

Should be in Brittany by Sunday then. 

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Posted
  • Location: Seven Springs, Cotswolds 212m ASL
  • Location: Seven Springs, Cotswolds 212m ASL

image.thumb.png.8729e38a162be7210850f86315bdd7bb.png ECMWF predicted snow depth a week tomorrow at 6pm.  Dare I say something for everyone

Edited by Blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
6 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Nick when do we expect your committee meeting report tonight. Hope there hasn’t been any lasting damage to the members over the last few days!!!

.....Stops himself ranting about ' no point discussing the ECM at day 10' because it is a milder solution',then remembers that.

A.if day 10 prolonged the freeze it would be worth considering.

B. We are all here to discuss the model output!

Edited by sunnijim
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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
1 minute ago, Speedbird said:

You might want to check the 850's

You'll have to englighten me here?

 

Surely careering the Atlantic low pressure system into the existing Easterly cold air would provide a nationwide snow event, rather than sending it to the North of France to retain us in an Easterly which is less likely to provide a nationwide snow event? 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

A lot of water (snow) to flow under the bridge before day 7.

EC op looks to blow up the Atlantic low from day 7 , if it verifies at day 10 as shown id be very surprised.

Day 7

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Day 10

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