Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Met4Cast]

FYI Arpege snowfall totals are diabolical. They're awfully inaccurate. The entire country would have been buried about three times over this winter if they were any good.

[Mark wheeler]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I thought Arpege being a high resolution model was better placed for forecasts within 48 hours ?

Tbh I’m not sure how it has performed recently in comparison to others like Harmonie etc but I’m sure someone can help . 

[SqueakheartLW]

19 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

-12 850s widespread on the ICON 12z . Get in there . 

Don't like to spoil it for you but that is widespread -10 850s with a patch or two of -12's

I have labelled up the top chart to show what each colour boundary is

Edited February 3, 2021 by SqueakheartLW

[winterof79]

Starts Saturday evening then

[Battleground Snow]

15 minutes ago, Chrisover93 said:

Will

Will this system be further south?

Hi.

Yes on this run its further south due to better blocking to our North forcing the Jetstream south

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

FYI Arpege snowfall totals are diabolical. They're awfully inaccurate. The entire country would have been buried about three times over this winter if they were any good.

Funny. I’ve found it has massively underdone snow for here all winter.

[Tony Beets]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Starts Saturday evening then

Get all of these backing up against the Pennines like a few years ago and we will be laughing. 
great for longevity with the stronger heights to our north

[Matt H]

Looks like everything will kick off on Sunday then. Bring it on!

[Tim Bland]

I think Shakey !!! is going to need a lie down after seeing the icon ! That’s a lot of snow in the East Midlands!!

[onepingonly]

 

ICON +93h making Sunday a decent event again for the central belt even into London. Matches BBC earlier in the day whereas GFS 6z didn't have it this far west. Let's see what the 12z has to say..

[PiscesStar]

11 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Anyone interested in the correction south

 

YES 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Don't like to spoil it for you but that is widespread -10 850s with a patch or two of -12's

There between-10 and -12 . There fairly widespread. Better than the 6z

[bumpydogz]

11 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Anyone interested in the correction south

 

These charts are 3 hours apart so not a fair comparison.

[jimbo36]

1 hour ago, Blizzard said:

Must be stuck for some reason....

You can see the 6z and 18z ECMWF here... FWIW looks very similar to the 0z at 72 hrs....

weather model ecmwf model - europe - surface pressure [base + 72] | weatheronline

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

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Lovely. Thanks

[Jason M]

Good to see the charts showing snow over the channel and southern North Sea. Hopefully that horrible word ‘marginal’ can be discarded for a while . 

[Kentspur]

Snow showers already widespread across many Northern, Central, Eastern/ NE and SE areas this Sunday morning according to GFS 12z and some showing further west too 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Kentspur

[Mike Poole]

GFS out to T90, compare 6z T96:

Much better on the upstream lows disrupting, looks much more like a slider, they won’t blow up like they did on the 6z, I would suggest...

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs12z for Sunday 

Get in

[Battleground Snow]

UKMO at 96 is simply stunning.. 4 days away!!

[sheikhy]

Gfs looks like a snow day for the midlands!!!very good start to the 12zs so far!!!

[ICE COLD]

UKMO 96

[Paul]

We're getting a few too many off topic / will it snow in ...... type posts coming through at the moment, so just reposting this up to help everyone decide where their post best fits. 

**Model thread rules of engagement**
As usual, please keep it to the models in this thread, and keep it friendly and respectful of other people's views.

• If your post is discussing the model output, then it's fine in this thread
• If your post is mostly not about the models, briefly mentioning a model by name or putting a chart in there does not make it model discussion - the best place for this sort of thing is the winter chat thread.
• Please use the Met Office thread to discuss their outlooks.
• A local slant is ok as many people prefer to look at the models with a view to their local conditions
• Local 'will it snow type' posts, or local forecast chat are not suited to the model thread though, the best place for these sorts of posts is the regional area

[chris55]

UKMO Sunday. Bit chilly......

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, bumpydogz said:

These charts are 3 hours apart so not a fair comparison.

Ok just for you.

[MKN]

Providing pressure remains high enough where ive highlighted then a sustained easterly becomes more likely. Thats the key thing to look for over the coming runs...