Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Scandinavian High.]

Getting interesting now possibly Significant snow moving south Sunday still uncertain north to south..

Edited February 3, 2021 by Scandinavian High.

[Speedbird]

4 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Getting interesting now possibly Significant snow in the south Sunday still uncertain north to south..

Just need that lot to slip south by 75 miles - not out of the question

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Getting interesting now possibly Significant snow in the south Sunday still uncertain north to south..

Oh stop it scandi high

[phil nw.]

32 minutes ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

Slightly confused. Didn't the low move out of the south east into France ? The low you mention off east anglian coast is another low or have I lost the plot... which is very likely? Just looking to be educated. All very fascinating that's for sure.     

The low we are watching- and waiting for it move aside- is currently over Ireland  with it's fronts straddling the borders-cold air to the north.

It gradually moves east and absorbs  a secondary wave into it's circulation which has come up from France so maybe this is what you refer to? T00hrs and t48

Then we see the low gradually ease away to the position in the southern north sea as shown on the t96/120 fax's,all these from the 00z ukmo run.

We can see by day 5 how the easterly cold air is coming south around the rear of the low as it makes way.

I hope that helps.

Edited February 3, 2021 by phil nw.
added missing charts

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, Speedbird said:

Just need that lot to slip south by 75 miles - not out of the question

I think it'll end up further South than that. Looks like a lot of snow to come for all parts of the UK over the next week and beyond.

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Getting interesting now possibly Significant snow in the south Sunday still uncertain north to south..

 

I wouldn’t worry about that, it’s just a general image to show the risk.  GEFS show almost 100% of ensembles going forward snow in London. High res runs such as UKV below are the best models to keep an eye on for where the streams of showers will set up...

[steveinsussex]

9 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Getting interesting now possibly Significant snow in the south Sunday still uncertain north to south..

That’s the north?!

[phil nw.]

Please keep bbc and met outputs in the regionals,MO thread or chat thread guys.Remember this is for model discussion for your own views.

Thank you all.

[Blizzard]

47 minutes ago, jimbo36 said:

Anyone know why the ECMWF High Res 0z won't go beyond 000 on WXCHARTS?

Can it be viewed elsewhere?

Must be stuck for some reason....

You can see the 6z and 18z ECMWF here... FWIW looks very similar to the 0z at 72 hrs....

weather model ecmwf model - europe - surface pressure [base + 72] | weatheronline

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

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Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology, reports, weather warning.

 

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Blizzard

[londonblizzard]

1 minute ago, Blizzard said:

Must be stuck for some reason....

You can see the 6z and 18z ECMWF here... 

weather model ecmwf model - europe - surface pressure [base + 72] | weatheronline

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

---

Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology, reports, weather warning.

 

 

Does the 6z and 18z only go up to 72 hours then?

[Scandinavian High.]

9 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

That’s the north?!

Moving south 

[Paul]

@Jo Farrow's latest blog is well worth a read while you're waiting for the 12z's to roll 

Bitter cold, snow and easterly winds. Is another Beast from the East on its way?

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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An easterly flow will bring snow and much colder air with frost and ice into next week. Scotland is already being warned of wider blizzards and disruption by Friday but snow showers will spread.

 

[Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

Does the 6z and 18z only go up to 72 hours then?

Goes to 90hrs in 1hr increments by the looks of it...  depends on what you can get that isn't behind a paywall  

wxcharts.com gives you it in 3 hr increments for free... which is a bummer when its not working....
 

Dissemination schedule | ECMWF

WWW.ECMWF.INT

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ECMWF is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We are both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing global numerical weather predictions and other data for our Member...

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Blizzard

[Tim Bland]

19 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

You gota laugh at that ukv chart!!!all snow in north sea but as soon as it hits land theres sleet for east anglia and eastern england!!

I think Sat night & early Sunday there still some marginal air around (especially in the south) but by the time it gets to Sunday afternoon the cold from the east has set in and it’s all snow... UKV is known to be stingy with precip amounts so expect it to be a bit more widespread than currently shown ..

Edited February 3, 2021 by Tim Bland

[WelfordRd]

21 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

That’s the north?!

I live in Leicestershire and wouldn't class us as the north! Lol 

[Duane S.]

I felt that over the last couple of days we’d seen a subtle but undoubted move away from a more UK widespread very cold and snowy spell. I didn’t post my thoughts as I’m always the first to moan about people saying tomorrow’s runs are a absolutely crucial! But... I do think that we were fast running out of time for that trend to reverse. Thankfully it has, and it has done it in some style!! 

Certainly still marginal at times down here, but that sort of goes with the territory living here, but I’d be more than happy to take my chances on any of the main runs this morning. Come the time it won’t look like that of course, but there should be all manner of nice surprises tucked away in those yet to form isobar kinks no doubt 

The Northern Hemisphere set up is other worldly right now, even if we don’t all get what we want, we can at least all marvel at that! 

[EML Network]

2 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Yes, see:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP

...and the model thread at the time:

 

WOW talk about a trip down memory lane, i'm going through the archives now, fascinating to read some of the posts and comments and tbh (myself included) we have become such a hardy bunch since then.  Have I really been a member on here for over 10 years !!!! where did the time go !!!! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Well folks I'm sure the excitement is now starting to build for the upcoming cold spell...Many of those ensembles show whatever is going to be falling out of the sky will be off snow.

On a lighter note I had just pointed this out to Family but have kept tight lipped over snow risks for obvious reasons...when my mother said...Matthew you've always been obsessed with the weather, who on earth do you follow! It came flooding back to me...8 or 9 years old and I was watching all TV forecasts religiously!! Even drawing up my own weather charts over Atlas maps...with the boundaries of colder and milder airmasses....and the funny bit was phoning up all the latest local forecasts around the country in the early 1980s...I just said ohh mom,happy days...she said yeh until the phone bills come for 100 quid...

Enjoy the upcoming cold and snow,and make sure your kids enjoy it too..it all makes more great memories further down the line.

[mulzy]

22 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

Does the 6z and 18z only go up to 72 hours then?

Up to 90 hours

[offerman]

23 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

That’s the north?!

Exactly what i thought .

[Youcan'tbecirrus]

29 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

The low we are watching- and waiting for it move aside- is currently over Ireland  with it's fronts straddling the borders-cold air to the north.

It gradually moves east and absorbs  a secondary wave into it's circulation which has come up from France so maybe this is what you refer to? T00hrs and t48

Then we see the low gradually ease away to the position in the southern north sea as shown on the t96/120 fax's,all these from the 00z ukmo run.

We can see by day 5 how the easterly cold air is coming south around the rear of the low as it makes way.

I hope that helps.

Appreciate that Phil, always good to learn and in my case that's a lot. If you don't mind me asking the occluded front (I think that's what it is called - line below L1002) as it is spinning anti-clockwise, does that then get pulled on an easterly towards our shores ? and an IMBY question, if that's correct, would that be likely to move north as it does so or sink south ? Thanks again.          

[Mike Poole]

As the 12z ICON starts to roll, maybe worth a brief summary of where we’ve come to over the last 24 hours.  Cross model agreement on the cold easterly development since last night’s GFS 18z.  What’s at stake now is the size of the uncertainty envelope next week, and the chances for snow.  I think GFS 6z showed the northern extent to which systems might push into the cold, but, to me, at least, I think it could have been overblowing  the lows on that run.  I’d like to see this northern extent reduced in the 12z suite, and expect it to do so.

Snow looks certain to come from convective showers from the east coast; for midlands and south, from depressions abutting cold air or channel lows - these will take a while to pin down so plenty to look out for.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Day_9]

This is why you dont have to panic.  Once we reach the bottom it’s a long way to go to get back above that 30yr average.... 4 or 5 days out at best is all you can really read into for specifics the rest as you can see really is fantasy island and the vortex undergoes a 4th warming event..... long cold spring on the horizon.  The tomatoes will be slow this year

Edited February 3, 2021 by Day_9
Bits and bobs

[Battleground Snow]

Early upgrade on the icon at 96

[EML Network]

ECM 06Z Snippet at T+72 (apologies if already posted)

GFS for same timeframe for comparison

Not really sure anything can be gleamed from that other than it looks like the North Atlantic LP is further north on the ECM ?