Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

I know and we miss out ..................gutted lol

I think bdtp was being a little flippant in a good way

[kold weather]

Just now, Bullseye said:

Not sure how this may play at part but how much of a difference is there between -10 TO -12 uppers showing for next week compared to -14 TO -16 like end of Feb/First days of March in beast from east 2018? Would that be enough to have similar temperatures to BFTE?

Ice days would be quite possible mid week if the easterly winds slack off, indeed likely I'd guess in areas with snow cover.

With that being said probably maxes around 1-3c would be more likely for most as the profile isn't *that* cold away from perhaps the far north (its more than cold enough though, especially further north).

[Yarmy]

15 minutes ago, Gonzolio Martinez said:

Is that 'That ECM' that people here refer to?

Yes, see:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP

...and the model thread at the time:

 

[feb1991blizzard]

20 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Looks like ‘Midlands North’ event

 

BFTP 

Hey???  -  I would put my life on it that you will get more snow than me, and Kent will get absolutely battered.

[Updated_Weather]

34 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

That's interesting that shows some of the coldest anomalies to the east and south east by the 9th...I wouldn't have thought that browsing through a few of the models and the 850 uppers. Marco P does like a ramp (as he's been doing all this winter).

I’m sorry but I disagree. Marco doesn’t ramp, maybe a little hint now and again but - not ramp.

very professional.

[MJB]

11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I think bdtp was being a little flippant in a good way

So was I lol 

[Cold Winter Night]

19 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Recent ECM ensembles say a bit fat "no" to easterlies in mid Feb - very SWly at 550mb level on the latest clusters:

A slightly different view can give another perspective IMO.

The same clusters from the ECMWF website, showing a progression in these clusters, and a wider view of our part of the hemisphere, contain a little bit more hope.

Cluster 1 has a bit of Scandi height development, cluster 4 goes on to connect the Azores/West Iberian High to Scandinavia.
It takes just a few tweaks for those SW'lies to switch to NE'lies.
Not saying it will, but it does not take an outrageous change in the output for that to happen.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

34 minutes ago, birdman said:

Should we expect Ice Days from this Easterly and how do the modelled temps fare compared with the previous 2018 BFTE? Are there any similarities? Thanks

Yes big differences at this stage..we won't be seeing -16 uppers during this event..The coldest air to the NE we don't pull in..more like -8 perhaps-10 850s which will deliver the white stuff to many,unless your on the coast or at a very low altitude.

Edit @Cold Winter Night your below sea level...wow you.must have a better view of the fish than what we get at sea world..

 

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Chesil View]

14 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

A slightly different view can give another perspective IMO.

The same clusters from the ECMWF website, showing a progression in these clusters, and a wider view of our part of the hemisphere, contain a little bit more hope.

Cluster 1 has a bit of Scandi height development, cluster 4 goes on to connect the Azores/West Iberian High to Scandinavia.
It takes just a few tweaks for those SW'lies to switch to NE'lies.
Not saying it will, but it does not take an outrageous change in the output for that to happen.

It is clear from the Meto extended update that they don't expect the high pressure to be lasted away like the GFS 06 suggests.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Yes, that still haunts me today as I'm sure it does many others!  How close did the cold spell come before disappearing on those occasions?

One big difference about that failed cold snap Don was the fact the Met office were never on board with it. I remember a met expert being asked on social media why they were not mentioning it...and his replie...was give it time and they will be!! Needless to say they never did,and they was proven correct.

[Tim Bland]

Would like to see signs of a bit more Longevity in the cold spell starting to appear soon. Otherwise it looks like a 4 / 5 day spell breaking down on Thursday. Let’s hope we see a repeat of the 00z GFS soon... if not it’s still a good spell (especially compared to recent years)  which will deliver a covering for many and i’m sure there are plenty of people in the far north east and Scotland who are sick of snow...just keeping everything crossed for the southern members 32 out of 33 members have snow in London Sunday night / Monday morning ...

Edited February 3, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Ninman]

P23 from the GEFS illustrate a possible roue to maintain a cold theme.  A slight (and I meant slight!) wedge persists over Iceland, then moves east to Scandinavia, which this migrates back  west over Iceland. This leads to lows sliding underneath and keeping the UK mostly cold with further risk of snow and drawing continental air back in at the end of the run

[Day_9]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Would like to see signs of a bit more Longevity in the cold spell starting to appear soon. Otherwise it looks like a 4 / 5 day spell breaking down on Thursday. Let’s hope we see a repeat of the 00z GFS soon... if not it’s still a good spell (especially compared to recent years)  which will deliver a covering for many and i’m sure there are plenty of people in the far north east and Scotland who are sick of snow...just keeping everything crossed for the southern members

Don’t worry, the drum has been beating for cold all winter.  And now we have arrived almost at T0.....4/5 days max look ahead from here on in, enjoy as it unfolds 

[birdman]

10 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Yes big differences at this stage..we won't be seeing -16 uppers during this event..The coldest air to the NE we don't pull in..more like -8 perhaps-10 850s which will deliver the white stuff to many,unless your on the coast or at a very low altitude.

Edit @Cold Winter Night your below sea level...wow you.must have a better view of the fish than what we get at sea world..

 

 

Thanks Matt. So although this event/setup is fairly rare for our shores we're not talking historic cold or snow at this stage but it has the potential to be significant and memorable at least.

[sheikhy]

Ecm 06z looking good!!low heading south(black line) and truely cold siberian freezing air heading west (red line)!!.....

[on the coast]

13 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Yes big differences at this stage..we won't be seeing -16 uppers during this event..The coldest air to the NE we don't pull in..more like -8 perhaps-10 850s which will deliver the white stuff to many,unless your on the coast or at a very low altitude.

Edit @Cold Winter Night your below sea level...wow you.must have a better view of the fish than what we get at sea world..

 

 

From Sunday onwards it will cold enough for snow at all levels.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Would like to see signs of a bit more Longevity in the cold spell starting to appear soon. Otherwise it looks like a 4 / 5 day spell breaking down on Thursday. Let’s hope we see a repeat of the 00z GFS soon... if not it’s still a good spell (especially compared to recent years)  which will deliver a covering for many and i’m sure there are plenty of people in the far north east and Scotland who are sick of snow...just keeping everything crossed for the southern members

Can we really trust GFS on this though Tim,its already had to be dragged kicking and screaming to the cold snap in the first place. And if we do get an Atlantic push later next week,we have to be looking at the chance of significant snow...High risk high reward scenarios possible here.

Edited February 3, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Can we really trust GFS on this though Tim,its already had to be dragged kicking and screaming to the cold snap in the first place. And if we so get and Atlantic push later next week,we have to be looking at the chance of significant snow...High risk high reward scenarios possible here.

True, but most models (ECM example below) show a retreat north of the cold / snow line. Back to a familiar tale of snow for Scotland and the far north, transient snow midlands north and rain for the south. I’m hopeful that the block puts up more of a fight than currently shown..history tells us this is quite likely...and the lows end up further south with slider potential..need to see more sign of this in the next few days though.. 

[Liam J]

3 minutes ago, on the coast said:

From Sunday onwards it will cold enough for snow at all levels.

Yes, I always like to see -10c @ 850 level to support snow at all levels. Also very dry continental air source with very low dew points. 

Even if your air temp briefly touches 2/3c in the afternoon any ppn will fall as snow and once it’s on the ground there won’t be much thawing, only top ups. 

Dew points from the 00z GFS OP. 

[Winter Hill]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm 06z looking good!!low heading south(black line) and truely cold siberian freezing air heading west (red line)!!.....

Looks like you had the shakes drawing them arrows

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Winter Hill said:

Looks like you had the shakes drawing them arrows

Literally man!!was eating at the time so had to hold the phone and draw the arrows with one hand lol!!

[sheikhy]

I swear we should get paid with the amount of effort we put into this forum over the years!!!!make it a profession

[phil nw.]

The cold spell now within sight and good agreement at day 5 between the ukmo op and the ecm mean on the 850's coming right down the country.

The low moving just far enough off the e.anglian coast so that the stiff easterly flow affects pretty much everywhere .

Current charts will not yet have a handle of snowfall detail wrt amounts and locations. but i think it's reasonable to expect snow showers coming from the east with every chance of more organised streamers of disturbances being picked up nearer the time.

Now the battleground is further south hopefully all snow loving members will have a chance to join in the fun.

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Man Without Beard said:

Recent ECM ensembles say a bit fat "no" to easterlies in mid Feb - very SWly at 550mb level on the latest clusters:

I'm confused. 

How can that be showing South Westerlies with such low heights pretty much over us?  Cluster 1

The 510dm is just to the North and the whole UK and Ireland in sub 528dm.

Genuinely confused.  Would that not indicate a Northerly?

Edited February 3, 2021 by mountain shadow

[Updated_Weather]

17 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Can we really trust GFS on this though Tim,its already had to be dragged kicking and screaming to the cold snap in the first place. And if we do get an Atlantic push later next week,we have to be looking at the chance of significant snow...High risk high reward scenarios possible here.

Think ideally ECM/UKMO which are prolonging the cold could be on mark - I believe that’s what MetO believe too.