Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[That ECM]

This gfs is looking more like Ukmo wrt to approaching lows and heights north.

[Ice Day]

This is a fantastic run out to 150 - the -10 line is now over 70% of the country.  

[frosty ground]

Sliding south , I think the Atlantic will have to have a few goes to get in

[Notty]

UKMO 00z and GFS 06z OP at same time next Tuesday

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

Atlantic a bit further south at 144 on the 06z compared to the 00z, a cleaner undercut meaning cold air a little further west and south.

 

could be on the cusp of something very significant provided it holds its track - another 50 miles south would be fantastic

 

[Thunder Snow]

Hoping the snow isn't confined to Eastern areas like shown in the precipitation charts 

[Methuselah]

In using standard model-thread nomenclature, the GFS is a stonker!

    

[kold weather]

Much stronger attack from the SW on the 06z GFS, which lifts the 850hpa temperature for the far south, indeed the far south coast barely goes below -5c at any point away from perhaps the far SE.

Meanwhile still plenty of snowfall for the east coast!

 

[chris55]

Proper undercut, potential for a classic south west blizzard!

 

[Tim Bland]

Widespread snow in the south midweek courtesy of the Atlantic trying to cut in..

[Dazzer6666]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

Proper undercut, potential for a classic south west blizzard!

 

Shades of Feb 1978 in Devon & Cornwall

[Notty]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Proper undercut, potential for a classic south west blizzard!

 

That LP in the Atlantic does appear to be spinnng up though

[kold weather]

The set-up at 168hrs screams of the precipitation ending up staying over the channel and the cold staying embedded over most of the UK bar perhaps the very far south where an onshore flow will raise temperatures.

Following on from that a stronger attack from the SW gives front edge snow for the south and probably much more sustained snow to the Midlands northwards.

Edited February 3, 2021 by kold weather

[Bristawl Si]

Loving this new Multi-Regional thread - great idea NW.

[TSNWK]

I think so long as we can keep uppers below -2 then the south will be ok with any sliders that would be pulling in low few points and temperature from near continent..

Is it possible that 850s can be same as surface in such circumstances?

[chionomaniac]

Jeepers, next week It looks like there will be more knife edges than a restaurant cutlery draw, with the battle between cold and mild across the southern half of the UK.

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Hoping the snow isn't confined to Eastern areas like shown in the precipitation charts 

I wouldn't worry about that, especially the further north you go I'm fairly confident its going to drive quite far west, especially as we heading towards the latter half of winter where convection can sustain a little better inland typically.

 

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

The set-up at 168hrs screams of the precipitation ending up staying over the channel and the cold staying embedded over most of the UK bar perhaps the very far south where an onshore flow will raise temperatures.

Following on from that a stronger attack from the SW gives front edge snow for the south and probably much more sustained snow to the Midlands northwards.

could be a quick and soggy end for the south, hopefully the Atlantic lows take a more ESE path

[carinthian]

Morning all, I have an update from the experts over here. Regarding the model performances over the past few days , they have certainly been impressed with the consistency shown by the UKMO as opposed to the fluctuates shown in the American and European models. Now the question I ask , " When is North Europe, apart from Scandinavia going to get real cold "?  They expect the pesky little low over the British Isles to sink a bit faster than the current models show by weekend. Beyond that a real squeeze on the isobar flow into Northern Britain by Sunday with the first pulse of cold air advection. Their charts also indicate several trough formations to develop in the flow , early next week . The out parameter of the snow computer flags up convective snow starting Sunday afternoon ( Humber , northwards ) with snow risk increasing further south into Monday. Tuesday is out of range at the moment but the team expect Tuesday to be the day of most widespread snow from North Sea trough alignments. So for model watching over the next 72 hours will be focused on  changes in position or rate in movement/ sinking of the low. At last looking good for you guys, especially in the North with blizzards developing there from late Sunday.

C

[ALL ABOARD]

I wouldn't really worry about the GFS at 168... 

GFS and GEFS were nearly all wrong regarding a low at much shorter timescales. 

00z has a stronger high pressure developing over scandi that keeps any Atlantic fronts on southerly trajectories. 

06z not so much, but less data may prove to be its downfall on a situation like this. 

[Jason M]

The envelope is narrowing now. For longevity it would be good to see some height rises over Scandi. That’s just nit picking though as tbh these are the best charts since 2018. Even for the SE as long as we get the cold in initially if the uppers rise into the minus 2 to 3 range briefly we would probably be okay but as Koke said not much room for downgrades. Frankly, if most of us get some decent snowfall it doesn’t matter how long it lasts. If I see so snow for several days down here I’ll just bank that as in recent years it’s been rare.

meanwhile this morning I wonder if some problems might be caused in the Se with the heavy rain currently falling 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Notty said:

That LP in the Atlantic does appear to be spinnng up though

I wouldn’t worry about that at this stage . The set up will change between runs . 

[chris55]

Snow for the entire south coast next Wednesday... won't happen like this but shows what's possible.

[WINTRY WALES]

20 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

So I would say that at 114 it's pretty wonderful nationwide and even a cheeky little upgrade for the southeast.

   

It’s not nation wide tho ...looks dry for western side of England and all of wales

[rug]

9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Much stronger attack from the SW on the 06z GFS, which lifts the 850hpa temperature for the far south, indeed the far south coast barely goes below -5c at any point away from perhaps the far SE.

Meanwhile still plenty of snowfall for the east coast!

 

Ouch. Not looking good for us in the SW.