Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?


Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Navgem a bit meh in comparison to most other models this morning . Not so mighty Navgem .

0129B0D7-3B3D-48C7-A12E-EAEAB36656DD.png

0254C86D-C709-4A9B-81FB-87FB34E80DD2.png

15C13730-5EA3-459E-8AA3-B180AF43AA4F.png

C30A0176-611D-424C-8102-D59182369FDE.png

102E7031-20F0-484E-9150-9940F06AEDC3.png

458D167F-AAC0-4B06-A87C-45A48D0DD11E.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
41 minutes ago, Paul said:

The UKV is still steady in bringing the cold south over the weekend, with snow showers from the east. And whisper it quietly, but this also includes the south!

ukv3z-2.png ukv3z-4.png ukv-3z-6.png

prec1.png prec3.png prec5.png

The UKV is the Met Office's operational hi-res deterministic model - more info here:

visual-cortex-of-uk-temperatures.png
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

The Unified Model is run operationally in a number of configurations for weather forecasting at the Met Office.

 

Very tasty UKV update, the set-up for Sunday morning there looks very interesting as the low gets far enough south to bring that more sustained area of snow into the south.

Monday morning probably a little drier for the south but plenty of snow showers coming into the east coast.

Wind flow looks good for a streamer down the Wash into areas that have in recent years struggled for snowfall in W.EA.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, 230ft ASL
  • Location: Maidstone, 230ft ASL

So in election night style are we able to call it for the Beast yet?  The models look well aligned enough in my limited knowledge of models to call it.  Or do we still need to wait for some seats to be counted?  How is the swingometer looking?

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Amazing models! still not excited yet as it's FI, but one of best GFS and EC, I think I've seen, no mild air at all on GFS op, after Sat 6th

Understandable and we are so close now!  Come on, lets not be let down at the very last minute!  I admit, I did breathe a sigh of relief seeing the models this morning.......

Edited by Don
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, James Maidstone said:

So in election night style are we able to call it for the Beast yet?  The models look well aligned enough in my limited knowledge of models to call it.  Or do we still need to wait for some seats to be counted?  How is the swingometer looking?

 

Wait, be patient, tell no one and relax... 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
2 minutes ago, James Maidstone said:

So in election night style are we able to call it for the Beast yet?  The models look well aligned enough in my limited knowledge of models to call it.  Or do we still need to wait for some seats to be counted?  How is the swingometer looking?

 

Landslide...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
3 minutes ago, James Maidstone said:

So in election night style are we able to call it for the Beast yet?  The models look well aligned enough in my limited knowledge of models to call it.  Or do we still need to wait for some seats to be counted?  How is the swingometer looking?

 

Only up to +72 is fairly nailed on right now. Air cold enough for snow does not look likely for the southern half of the uk until sunday so i wouldn't be calling it until after the 12z outputs tomorrow. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
1 hour ago, Paul said:

Just a quick one, locations should now be displaying on posts if you're on a mobile.  

Brilliant.So useful to see.

The models this morning are lining up much more in tune with the further outlooks we have seen from Exeter in recent days.

There has been no talk their of the SE staying less cold.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm back from my sabbatical, and clearly the outlook has improved. Don't be to downbeat, should the GFS 06Z throw another wobbly, though, as it's been very 'consistent' these past few days...

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks like the Atlantic is going under at day 5 on the ICON. The only way this could get any more perfect would be for he pattern to shift south another 100 miles so the far south can join in the deeper cold.  ...but I’m being very greedy ! 

97C33C82-B649-4BB1-8CDE-0B46CDDD756E.png

Looks great to me

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

@Paul

Maybe worth starting a cold spell thread so members can post pictures and have general chat.

Back to the models All looking  fantastic this morning. 

C.S

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yeah the pattern is sticking around decently post 120hrs based on that 120hrs ICON, could be a snow risk coming in from the south-west around Thurs-Fri baqsed on the 120hrs ICON, however staying cold and snowy, especially for the east.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

@Paul

Maybe worth starting a cold spell thread so members can post pictures and have general chat.

Back to the models All looking  fantastic this morning. 

C.S

There’s the banter and moans thread for that.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks like the Atlantic is going under at day 5 on the ICON. The only way this could get any more perfect would be for he pattern to shift south another 100 miles so the far south can join in the deeper cold.  ...but I’m being very greedy ! 

97C33C82-B649-4BB1-8CDE-0B46CDDD756E.png

That wedge of heights is consistently showing up to the ne . That’s key to keeping the jet to the south of the UK.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...