Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Amazing models! still not excited yet as it's FI, but one of best GFS and EC, I think I've seen, no mild air at all on GFS op, after Sat 6th

[Matt H]

The ECM 00z ensemble mean is an absolute stonker! Sensational model output across the board this morning!

t120:

t144:

 

[sheikhy]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Amazing models! still not excited yet as it's FI, but one of best GFS and EC, I think I've seen, no mild air at all on GFS op, after Sat 6th

Aye!!!!3 of the best global models look fantastic!!!

[geordiekev]

Whilst some are being unreasonably negative, I'd just like to say welcome on board to all of those who WILL no doubtedly get in on the action for the first time this winter, barring an eruption somewhere.

Also, be prepared, last time we had similar synoptics many got stranded on motorways overnight.

Enjoy it whilst we can

(This was after only 2 days of easterlies)

Edited February 3, 2021 by geordiekev

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Aye!!!!3 of the best global models look fantastic!!!

maybe a new @That ECM, unusual on an 00Z

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well if we are talking models as they stand and not what might tweak as we get there the ECM, UKMO AND GFS 00z (certainly the runs I’m looking at) are very snowy for S and SE too.  Cold dominating and holding and going on.  There’s no “Midlands North” about those runs.

 

BFTP

Edited February 3, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[TSNWK]

11 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Some days. Other days very high risk for very high reward. I would say the midlands northwards is far enough north to guarentee at least 3 if not 4 days of cold.

The South East unfortunately is dangerously close to the proximity of low pressure systems and mild air although i hope the South East stays on the right side

Hello @Scott Ingham good to see you posting.  And yes just smidge of a hundred miles south on those lows next week is completely realistic for us to hope for... With no impact for the north. Win! Win!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Becoming a reality that we may see a proper blizzard materialising. Those in the South have a chance of being very highly rewarded, despite being on the edge! Patience and anticipation will be needed, as there could be wobbles and new disturbances cropping up. 

In the meantime, be prepared, stock up with food if you can, and fuel. Everyone’s health and preparation matters most, aside from the joy and fun of the snow and model outputs. Blizzards are a different animal compared to a series of snow showers.

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[sheikhy]

Ecm mean fantastic up ton144 hours and then screams battleground snow to me between 168 and 216 hours

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Hello @Scott Ingham good to see you posting.  And yes just smidge of a hundred miles south on those lows next week is completely realistic for us to hope for... With no impact for the north. Win! Win!

Exactly what id love to see mate yes!

Lets get us all in on the action and what better way to be cheered up than whats to come this weekend!!

[sparky1972]

good morning all, well as a rule of thumb for me is to look at the met office and bbc online forecasts to see their predictions and i have to say they are awful for cold and snow for here, chilly, sleety but not alot of snow, all very disappointing, then i come to hear to read everyones views and expected to read its all gone wrong overnight in the models, but i am glad to read we are still in with a chance of snow up and down the country so not to write of the chances yet. keep up the good work guys and gals.

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Becoming a reality that we may see a proper blizzard materialising. Those in the South have a chance of being very highly rewarded, despite being on the edge! Patience and anticipation will be needed, as there could be wobbles and new disturbances cropping up. 

In the meantime, be prepared, stock up with food if you can, and fuel. Everyone’s health and preparation matters most, aside from the joy and fun of the snow and model outputs. Blizzards are a different animal compared to a series of snow showers.

 

Those in the south have certainly been on edge in terms of snow - mentally!

Great output this morning though!

[Griff]

14 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Some days. Other days very high risk for very high reward. I would say the midlands northwards is far enough north to guarentee at least 3 if not 4 days of cold.

The South East unfortunately is dangerously close to the proximity of low pressure systems and mild air although i hope the South East stays on the right side

Morning Scott, 

Good to have you back. If I could find them (too much effort now to search the archives here) there would be many a post from December into January, that you posted which I believe touched on teleconnections, tropical forcing and the like that I have been keeping a close eye on (albeit with limited knowledge and experience), all of which alluded to and explained why it is this weekend onwards holds so much promise. 

Nothing was ever set in stone, and I remember you caused quite a stir. I know many were hoping for something instantaneous in January (those in the North of the UK, or perhaps Madrid and Japan would say the early predictions made by some, verified well). 

My personal pet indicator for this winter was the Atlantic Hurricane season and early comments by Marco Petanga and Gavin P regarding Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), specifically in an above average to hyperactive hurricane season. 

Who knows how everything truly interacts and comes together? A fascinating winter nevertheless, and hopefully a chance across the coming week for everyone to see a flake or two, or even perhaps a light dusting?

Probably just the coffee talking now... Love you guys, one and all

 

[kold weather]

30 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Some days. Other days very high risk for very high reward. I would say the midlands northwards is far enough north to guarentee at least 3 if not 4 days of cold.

The South East unfortunately is dangerously close to the proximity of low pressure systems and mild air although i hope the South East stays on the right side

Its a classic set-up that may well see the far south go from snow-rain-snow again, but you really won't have to be very far inland or have any altitude to turn it to all snow again.

There is a legitimate chance though of getting an awful lot of snow for a large part of the country. There are nearly always places that struggle in particular flows but the GFS has trended back better again and I think we are now edging towards the time period where we can have higher confidence.

For the north, this is a done deal, and frankly has been for the last 2 days. Its just how far south that can extend. Looking increasingly probable it will just clear the south coast.

[MattStoke]

33 minutes ago, DCee said:

But the ECM has moved towards the GFS and the GFS has stuck with the initial cold for midlands north. So I'm right in my initial analysis thankyou.

This just isn’t right at all.

[Speedbird]

35 minutes ago, DCee said:

To early to predict. But the colder air is about where you suggested, so a continuation of the winter theme this year. The south relying on steamers and FI channel runners which may or may not happen in FI.

Are you still using Mondays charts ?

I'd check the dates if I was you. Or rotate the charts 180 degrees.

[Kreftysoton]

Loving the positivity this morning, most seem bullish about the cold spell. Can someone tell me why both BBC and Met have downgraded cold already for my part of the world? (Soton)  Sat - Mon was 3c max now showing 6s and nxt week up to 9/10?  Do they use different models than the ones discussed on here? 

[Winter Hill]

2 minutes ago, Kreftysoton said:

Loving the positivity this morning, most seem bullish about the cold spell. Can someone tell me why both BBC and Met have downgraded cold already for my part of the world? (Soton)  Sat - Mon was 3c max now showing 6s and nxt week up to 9/10?  Do they use different models than the ones discussed on here? 

Just computer generated.. I’m sure come the time they will be lower 

[Chesil View]

The models upgrading as D day gets closer is always a welcome sight.

[kold weather]

So yesterday only 18 runs had snow on the ground in the SE according to the 12z ECM ensembles by 12z Monday.

This morning that is now upto 32. 

Still a considerable number that keep the snowfall further north, however it is well worth noting multiple runs bring an area of snow in from the south Tues-Thurs, which seems reasonable.

Edited February 3, 2021 by kold weather

[bluearmy]

I see the general  ‘bi polar’ reaction to each suite remains consistent in here

steady as she goes with each run swinging back and forth within an envelope which should become smaller as time ticks by ...

it’s hanging on a bit too large at the moment !

 

[Frosty.]

Honestly, these models look incredible!..if I only mentioned the Gfs 0z op for example, next week there are ice days where temps stay below freezing point, combined with easterly wind gusts of 30mph (approx)...wow that would feel cold!..so much incredible output, ECM..wow!...these are very exciting times, I feel like a kid waiting to open his prezzies on crimbo morning!

[Paul]

Just a quick one, locations should now be displaying on posts if you're on a mobile.  

[seabreeze86]

4 minutes ago, Kreftysoton said:

Loving the positivity this morning, most seem bullish about the cold spell. Can someone tell me why both BBC and Met have downgraded cold already for my part of the world? (Soton)  Sat - Mon was 3c max now showing 6s and nxt week up to 9/10?  Do they use different models than the ones discussed on here? 

Ignore them they are useless , according the Met office app forecast in my location north east England this is there forecast and these are the charts. Underplaying is a understatement 

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I see the general  ‘bi polar’ reaction to each suite remains consistent in here

steady as she goes with each run swinging back and forth within an envelope which should become smaller as time ticks by ...

it’s hanging on a bit too large at the moment !

 

What you think about the models this morning blue?!good or bad to your taste?!